UKC

Last week I downloaded the AI powered Winter Climbing Forecasts app after noticing it advertised on MWIS. On checking how well it chimes with tomorrows SAIS forecast I must say I am a bit puzzled.

The app shows Broad Gully in SCNL as being 'reasonable' tomorrow whereas SAIS gives the forecast for that aspect in Glencoe as 'considerable risk'. 

Todays SAIS forecaster in Creag Meagaidh witnessed several avalanches throughout the day. But according to the Winter Climbing Forecasts app, Easy Gully will tomorrow be in good condition.

Am I missing something?

Is AI trying to kill us?

Has Skynet become self aware?

It had never occured to me that the winter climbing app took any notice of avalanche danger. I guess it should, but....

I think all it is saying is that the gully will be full of snow and that it won't be melting.  As you say, the fact that it might be unconsolidated windblown is a key thing to consider.

I knew I must have been missing something. But still... I think a banner or something on each page, just advising of the apps purpose and limitations, would make a really useful and potentially death-preventing addition to the app. 

I doubt the apps creators would want to inadvertently mislead anyone to their peril. 

But AI might.

In conditions just means wintry. Not safe. Anyways, those apps aren’t particularly great. Too many variables and local factors to take into consideration.

Hi DizzyVizion,

Adam creator of the Winter Climbing Forecasts app here. Thanks for supporting us.

So the app is not making a prediction on the risk of approaching, climbing and descending from these routes. The predictions are for the 'ethical' condition of them.

There are many reasons for this. For example, with subjective hazards it would be impossible for the app to tailor predictions to each individual user e.g. their ability to climb a route at a given grade or navigate in a white out when topping out. And with objective hazards it would be impossible to tailor the predictions to each users acceptable risk level e.g. how comfortable they with poor belays, loose blocks or the SAIS avalanche level.

Here's the help section on the app regarding avalanches:

Does it factor in the risk from avalanche?

No. The variations on how climbers could approach and descend from a particular crag are endless, which makes it impossible to factor these into the predictions. For example, should the app consider going over the top or all the way round to Beinn Eighe Triple Buttress? Both have different aspects and avalanche potential.

On certain style of routes, such as snow gullies, the app does look for the snow to settle for the best ethical conditions. However, this is not a statement on whether it is safe to climb with regards to avalanche. As an example, the app lacks the specialism to know a persistant weak layer is within the snowpack nor be able to tailor to what a climbers risk tolerance to this is.

It is essential to use resources such as Scottish Avalanche Information Service to make this judgement. We highly recommend using their expertise and in-the-field knowledge as part of your planning. We provide links within the webapp to help you with this.

Being an assistive tool, the app is just one piece of the jigsaw when planning where to go climbing, so we've provided links to the specific SAIS area on each relevant predictions page in Scotland. Once out on the mountain, this app nor any other forecasting tool like SAIS is never going be a substitute for your own dynamic risk assessment.

Thanks Adam. I was too quick to use the app which I knew to be the case. Discovering a new digital tool and misreading it initially before realising 'hang on, what does this info actually mean', and then learning to use it properly is an easy thing to do (for me at least).

I think it's clear on the app it is assessing the route/section of terrain rather than the ability of the user so no worries there. I just thought maybe I wouldn't be the only person making the mistake I did- looking at a gully route on the app then reading the key to find it is 'Good' before checking what SAIS assessed for that aspect and elevation.

I hope you find this feedback useful. 

Regardless of my error I 100% intend on using your app as standard alongside SAIS and MWIS, met office etc. It has a very nice clean layout and I was impressed by it enough to recommend to someone I met on the summit of Stob Coire nan Lochan on Sunday. Turned out he was already a user of your app 👍😉