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Cold winters: a prediction? News Link

© Mick Ryan
Walker on her way to Loughrigg summit from Grasmere.  © Mick Ryan
Walker on her way to Loughrigg summit from Grasmere.
© Mick Ryan

'We might be in the middle of a ten-year spell of colder than average winters', writes David Dobson from the Earth Sciences Department at University College London at the BMC's website.

It's something to do with the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) and air pressure.

You can read the full explanation at www.thebmc.co.uk.


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20 Dec, 2010
//www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/datapages/naoi.htm . It includes data for last winter - the lowest NAO for 190 years! It would be interesting to map this against the more recent Braemar data....
20 Dec, 2010
There was an article about this on Radio 4's The Material World a few weeks ago. It said given the strength of the conditions causing last years cold spell (The Azores High was involved as well) that if it weren't for the effect of global warming, it would have been colder still.
20 Dec, 2010
I can remember somebody posting last winter about the NAO and that it had 'flipped' or something. they were saying we could be in for a decade or so of these kind of winters. Looks like they may have been on to something.
21 Dec, 2010
Christ, does that mean were gonna have even more bloody pictures of winter climbing in the gallery?
21 Dec, 2010
Probably referring to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This is a mode of N. Atlantic sea surface temperature variability that is thought to be related to northward ocean heat transport; for the past decade or so it's been positive (i.e. relatively warm N. Atlantic) but in 2009 it started shifting to it's negative phase. That could def. influence the NAO state on decadal time scales (as could, say, having extremely reduced summer sea ice cover in the Arctic).
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