UKC

Hi there,

I'm looking for a bit of a view from someone "on the ground" in Snowdonia

I was due to be going to do the W3K this Friday. Leaving tomorrow night. But both Snow-Forecast and Mountain-Forecast are both saying risk of thunder.

I'm obviously not bothered about the rain, infact I'd prefer it to the hot sun the last time I did it. But I can't decide whether the risk is too high in terms of being caught in the high ground if there's going to be storms.

Can anyone living nearby tell me if there has been storms of late, indicating that the forecast may well materialise or wether it's just the algorithms over predicting.

Would you head up into the hills this Friday with the risk of storms?

Many thanks

Tom

There have been thunderstorms and heavy rainfall up and down the UK over the last few days. Nobody on here has any more information that the weather forecasters do, but given that several forecasts are predicting storms, if you're heading out into the hills it's probably wise to prepare for the possibility of bad weather. Better to be safe than sorry. 

If it's any consolation, before I did about 20 years ago we bivvied on Yr Eryri on the concrete platform outside the caff. We saw some fairly big thunderstorms roll past through the Irish Sea but they skirted to the west and we had a dry night. 

This was just as well as when I rolled up the mat in the morning it turns out I was lying on the lightning conductor....

b 

I live 30 miles away and we have had some pretty good storms in the last week.

They come even when not predicted.

Most seem to occur after midday when the hot air has risen to create the storm.

Personally, I would stay well clear of the hills until the weather system changes.

If for some reason you’re going to gamble, I would be looking at a very early start and hopefully off before midday.

.... or use your common sense and if the cloud starts building up head down the hill.

MWIS published this advice, in a blog, over the weekend.

https://www.mwis.org.uk/blog/post/thunderstorm-risk-mountains

And after looking at the amount of lightning strikes (Real time Lightning, Blitzortung) from the weekend I'd stay off the hills.

Have a great weekend.

Take a friend with long fine hair.  If their hair starts to rise of its own accord in a Medusa like manner get off the tops quick.  I once saw a guy stood at the trig on the mountain formally known as Snowden gazing up at the lightening flashing in the clouds above.  My friend's Strawberry blond locks were full "Van de Graaff" and we were heading down fast, so I have no idea if the sky watcher survived.

Thunderstorms tend to come and go quickly mind, so if you're prepared to wait the lightening out.  Just stay low.

There hasn't been as many storms as initially forecast around here.

The forecast for these storms is very changeable so whilst it might predict them now by Friday that might have changed.

There has been only been about one day in the the last three weeks when the weather would have stopped you.

You are rarely more than an hour away from a road. 

Or, just squat so your head is lower than Medusa's head. 

Not sure if I misheard this but the weather forecaster on the TV said there were 26,000 strikes during last week's storms. An incredible number if correct!

Not necessarily effective. A few years ago I read of two guys walking across the top of Ben Ledi (?) when lightning struck the ground nearby. One died, the other survived unharmed I think.

https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1668659605402992643

Sorry, I stand corrected. It was 28,000 strikes last weekend!!!

Common sense and prudence is great, but on the back of the MWIS forecast for Friday, would you risk the Welsh 3000’s?

https://www.ukclimbing.com/forums/ukc/lightning_strike_destroys_stone_pilla...

👍

I'd be very cautious about heading out once a thunderstorm has passed. If the air is unstable enough for one thunderstorm there will often be more developing, especially if they're moving through. Also you don't have to be directly beneath a thunderstorm cloud to get hit, look up bolt from the blue. Lightning has been known to strike the ground at least 10 miles out from the cloud base.

To the OP, the forecasts are saying a sunny morning then potential thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening, although confidence is low regarding thunderstorms. Based on that i would be looking at getting out early with a plan to be back lunchtime. But keep an eye on the sky. If any cumulus clouds (the lumpy ones) start growing rapidly vertically, or if you see little turret like clouds high up in the atmosphere (look up castellanous to see what I mean) then head straight down.

Just looking at MWIS, personally, yes. The forecast is for isolated thunderstorms that may form, not all-out armageddon. The welsh 3k has two major valley crossings so abandoning the attempt at either of those is simple. The bit I'd be concerned about is heading up onto the Carneddau since you're up high for longer, its usually the part you'd do in the afternoon, and retreat off the hill is a bit more logistically difficult. So, I'd consider going north to south and I'd think carefully about leaving vehicles in strategic places in case I felt like sacking it off was appropriate. Since its likely to be a bluebird day with good visibility otherwise any build-up of cloud would see me heading down towards the road asap.

NB, that isn't meant to be advice for anyone else, its just how I would approach it given the forecast. Everyone has different attitudes towards risk. Also, I would absolutely check other forecasts if this is what I was planning and if any were significantly worse I'd think again.

Edit: to add, I'd be more concerned about water and heat. So I probably wouldnt try the Welsh 3k this weekend, but not because of thunderstorms.