UKC

genuinely worrying, and worth reading in full (specially if you're going to comment on it )


https://theconversation.com/life-expectancy-in-britain-has-fallen-so-much-t...

In reply to pebbles:

Intriguing, but so politically slanted as to be difficult to know how accurate an assessment it really is. I got particularly irritated when, after several references to how life expectancy had improved under Labour leaders, it then improved "despite" being under the Thatcher government's policies. And if I'm irritated by such misrepresentation, given that I'm well left of the current centre ground of politics and IMO Thatcher was virtually Satan personified, then I suspect it would need a more balanced rewrite if it's to reach even a centre-ground audience.

In reply to pebbles:
I assumed it was going to be as a result of obesity and poor health (poor diet and too much sugar).

That article does make a fairly good case for other causes. Seems a bit too politicised though.

In reply to pebbles:

It's a very political article.

I've spent a lot of time looking into this at work this year, and whilst austerity is seen as a potential driver, there have also been slowdowns seen in a number of other countries (the absolute levels shown are maybe not as relevant as the degree of slowdown) with differing levels of recent austerity.

I've seen some analysis that looks at cause of death and there are some arguments there that we are running out of road as far as improvements in certain (I forget which, sorry) broad causes of death are concerned.

I've not really got much more to add, but thought it might be useful to point out that whilst austerity in the mix there are other potential causes out there. And also any prediction out to 2041 is doing a lot of extrapolation, so there will be error bars!

In reply to pebbles:

The article as I understand it suggests life expectancy will continue to increase, just not as fast as previously expected.

In reply to pebbles:

UK life expectancy will fall, it's coming like a train - you only have to look around in all the local towns, especially many young often in bad shape at an early age - diet and all the obvious factors etc?

In reply to Dave Cumberland:


They might not die earlier, just cost a small fortune to keep alive.

In reply to pebbles:

'As we argue in our new book'...

I see why you said read it all...

In reply to pebbles:

There have been growing reports of this stalling of ever increasing longevity in the UK. I think its hard to dispute the stats that at least a strong slowdown has occurred and this has massive implications for things like pension liabilities. Something else that seems to be common is the change is proportionally due to many more deaths in the older age groups than previously predicted. This isn't about the predictions of health problems of younger on average fatter and less fit (with the consequential large rises in things like diabetes that are already happening and getting worse)... that is to come. Hence I think the politics, although grating, is justified....these are experts looking for causes. The way we look after our old has changed dramatically in the last decade and it is most likely that is the main reason more are dying younger than previously predicted. As for Summo's point the health service is already creaking and yes the rising costs of the unhealthy will in future cost a lot extra to keep alive.

Finally, Public Health efforts are a joke in the UK at present: it was always a Cinderrella of health expenditure but now it's been dumped in councils and the protective budget ring fence is coming off, the rather below par efforts for a developed country made previously are facing large cuts and many expert staff in the last few years have already left or retired a bit earlier than they would have liked. Does anyone seriously think making cuts to Public Heath and incentivising expert staff to leave is a good idea right now?

In reply to pebbles:

The blood pressure of 48% has gone through the roof.

In reply to pebbles:

This is a complicated area but if you want to read more I would suggest this:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriage...

and the spreadsheet data is here:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriage...

In reply to pebbles:

Do these projections take into account potential advances in medical science? In the last few days there have been significant announcements relating to treatment of Huntington's Disease and Haemophilia using gene therapy and new drugs. If advances are made against the much more common long term conditions like heart disease, diabetes and cancer, or something like Alzheimers then what might this do to life expectancy?

In reply to pebbles:

As a bit of a punter, I can't believe how are general lack of concern about what we eat and how little exercise we take etc, isn't causing life expectancy to drop........fast!

In reply to MG:


That is what the original ONS data appeared to say when i saw an article on it few days ago.

In reply to Graham Mck:

On the other hand antibiotic resistance is likely to significantly reduce life expectancy