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New Brexit Deal?

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 kevin stephens 14 Nov 2020

It seams Boris has seen the shitstorm coming and has cleared the decks of his hard line Brexit advisors ready to capitulate on a submissive EU deal . 

This is not a Damascus enlightenment but affirmation that Boris’ prime motivation is self interest. Without any prospect of US supporting Brexit and crystallisation of likely damage from no deal he now realises that he has more to gain than to lose from major concessions in a soft Brexit.

I suggest that this week’s purge has been engineered for these reasons 

4
 Toby_W 14 Nov 2020
In reply to kevin stephens:

Is this like when you look at the yappy dog and he immediately rolls over and shows you his belly?

Cheers

Toby

 Doug 14 Nov 2020
In reply to kevin stephens:

sounds logical, so given the current UK gouvernement, probably wrong

 Paul Evans 14 Nov 2020
In reply to kevin stephens:

Would be nice Kevin (well OK, not nice, but at least not quite as bad) - but presupposes some ability to make sound decisions based on facts. Having lived through 9 months of pandemic under Boris, my confidence in his abilities couldn't sink much lower. I hope you're right!

Paul

2
 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to kevin stephens:

What’s he going to gain from a soft Brexit?

Certainly not the support of many conservative voters and certainly not all those who previously voted Labour but switched to the Conservatives in the last election.

It would be political suicide and would further damage his already tarnished reputation.

Given that he’s a buffoon you might be right.

8
 kevin stephens 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

By avoiding an inevitable meltdown in Kent and on the Irish border, empty shelves and layoffs in manufacturing industry come January

He will spin the “soft Brexit “ as a great victory for sovereign Britain 

2
 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to kevin stephens:

> By avoiding an inevitable meltdown in Kent and on the Irish border, empty shelves and layoffs in manufacturing industry come January

> He will spin the “soft Brexit “ as a great victory for sovereign Britain 

He’ll be finished as a politician if he allows a soft Brexit and possibly, more importantly in his eyes, he won’t achieve his Churchillian place in history.

 The Lemming 14 Nov 2020
In reply to kevin stephens:

And how have you come to the conclusion that Boris has cleared the decks for Brexit?

This week was a power struggle for who loves Boris the most. It was also about his own MP's, who were elected to do important stuff beyond the understanding of the plebs, wanting to have access to Boris without his guard dogs blocking the way.

Its got fek all to do with Brexit or the Goblin Gove would have resigned.

My Conspiracy Theory is that the new serise of Spitting Image had a subliminal part to play in the blood letting. Cummings survived the last Lockdown by sheer minded force of will. However a few episodes of a satirical sketch show, not exactly showing Cummings in a good light, could have tipped the scales more effectively.

 Andy Hardy 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

What would he gain from a no deal brexit? That would be political suicide in 2024, with mass unemployment, gridlock, food shortages etc.

4
In reply to baron:

> What’s he going to gain from a soft Brexit?

> Certainly not the support of many conservative voters and certainly not all those who previously voted Labour but switched to the Conservatives in the last election.

On the radio I heard arch-gammon Sir Bumpkin Humpkin*, Conservative MP for Englandshire West, say that Johnson now had to take the opportunity to purge the cabinet of remain voting softies and do a proper Brexit. The mind boggles.

*Actually that wasn't his real name which I don't recall, but it's near enough.

1
 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to Andy Hardy:

> What would he gain from a no deal brexit? That would be political suicide in 2024, with mass unemployment, gridlock, food shortages etc.

2024 is a few years away.

While we can argue exactly how damaging Brexit will be to the economy is anyone really expecting gridlock and food shortages to last years?

Anyway Johnson gained a huge election victory mainly due to his stance on Brexit. I suspect but obviously don’t know that many of his supporters will take a no deal and shortages over a climb down to a softer Brexit.

4
 Offwidth 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

He's finished anyway. The torys never tolerate a leader for long when causing lots of  bad political news and this week is the latest dangerous shambles. The party is full of ruthlessly ambitious politicians who know they are better than this current crony cabinet and that they could force real change with much less chaos with the majority they have.

Any talk of soft is in terms of a softer hardness of brexit, nothing like as bad as no deal at all but a huge distance from the Labour party wishes. It's easy to sell, as that is what they said would be done prior to the referendum. There will be a few pissed off groups, likely including fishing, but they can handle that and blame Europe.

Post edited at 10:53
5
 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

> He's finished anyway. The torys never tolerate a leader for long when causing lots of  bad political news and this week is the latest dangerous shambles. The party is full of ruthlessly ambitious politicians who know they are better than this current crony cabinet and that they could force real change with much less chaos with the majority they have.

> Any talk of soft is in terms of a softer hardness of brexit, nothing like as bad as no deal at all but a huge distance from the Labour party wishes. It's easy to sell, as that is what they said would be done prior to the referendum. There will be a few pissed off groups, likely including fishing, but they can handle that and blame Europe.

I think you’re right about him being finished.

But not until the Brexit deal is or isn’t done and then he’ll be gone.

 henwardian 14 Nov 2020
In reply to kevin stephens:

My 2 cents is that Boris doesn't want his legacy to be a ruinous no-deal brexit and would much rather a soft Brexit. Most everyone seems to agree that no-deal would be a disaster so frankly I don't care what his motivation is if the end result is a good decision.

But I've no idea what the Damascus enlightenment is. Is it to do with allying with Russia? Or using chemical weapons on civilians?

In reply to Offwidth:

> He's finished anyway. The torys never tolerate a leader for long when causing lots of  bad political news and this week is the latest dangerous shambles. The party is full of ruthlessly ambitious politicians who know they are better than this current crony cabinet and that they could force real change with much less chaos with the majority they have.

So can we expect the torys to indulge in a vicious and destructive public blood-letting as the succession is fought over between the hard brexiteers and the softer/remain ones or will it be a smooth transition decided behind closed doors.

 Trangia 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> He’ll be finished as a politician if he allows a soft Brexit and possibly, more importantly in his eyes, he won’t achieve his Churchillian place in history.

He lost his Churchillian place in history long ago. As for a soft Brexit, I think he is stuck now because that's what Biden wants him to do, and as we've chucked away or screwed up most other trade options we definitely need the USA as trading partners if we are going to get out of the upcoming post Covid mess. 

 Offwidth 14 Nov 2020
In reply to Robert Durran:

There is no significant group of wets left in the parliamentary party, so any Brexit will have to be hardish. I think Boris will have to remain until the deal is done, as there simply isn't time for any change. The tory party have sold their natural conservatism on a popularist standard and intoxicated with the electoral success it gave them, allowed a supine cabinet and a near implosion with Cummings style brexit brinkmanship. Popularism won't serve them well even near-medium term, outside the big single issue of brexit, the opposition have shifted from heavily disliked by small c middle ground voters to a very attractive alternative, so I don't see them following that popularist path to the limits the Republican party have tolerated. The consequences of brexit and the latest covid spiral won't be pleasant to handle when they start to bite in 2021. Boris is the obvious sacrifice. Even if Boris does somehow survive this, his power will be completely constrained.

 wercat 14 Nov 2020
In reply to kevin stephens:

As he defends his diminishing perimeter in danger of being overrun by the troops of the EU there should be a great appeal sent out on the Home Service for all owners of small negotiating skills to be gathered up at ports on the south coast and be organised by the Royal Navy into a rescue mission manned by ordinary folk ...

Post edited at 12:12
 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to wercat:

> As he defends his diminishing perimeter in danger of being overrun by the troops of the EU there should be a great appeal sent out on the Home Service for all owners of small negotiating skills to be gathered up at ports on the south coast and be organised by the Royal Navy into a rescue mission manned by ordinary folk ...

While not wishing to poo poo your version of events it’s been a long time since the troops of the countries comprising the EU have overrun anyone.*

*Obviously discounting the Germans.

 Duncan Bourne 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> he won’t achieve his Churchillian place in history.

I think that boat has sunk already

 Andy Hardy 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> 2024 is a few years away.

> While we can argue exactly how damaging Brexit will be to the economy is anyone really expecting gridlock and food shortages to last years?

I expect not, but the unemployment issue will be harder to address given the headwinds we'll be facing.

> Anyway Johnson gained a huge election victory mainly due to his stance on Brexit. I suspect but obviously don’t know that many of his supporters will take a no deal and shortages over a climb down to a softer Brexit.

The Tory majority is due to FPTP and the opposition being led by magic grandpa.

In fact he didn't get much more of a vote share than the Maybot.

 Blunderbuss 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> He’ll be finished as a politician if he allows a soft Brexit and possibly, more importantly in his eyes, he won’t achieve his Churchillian place in history.

Churchillian place in history?!!!

What makes you think he will ever get close to this? 

In reply to Trangia:

> He lost his Churchillian place in history long ago. 

He never had a hope in hell of getting a 'Churchillian place' in history. He won't even get an Anthony Eden place in history. He's just so much worse than anything we've ever see before. Totally out of his depth; bumbling, incompetent and indecisive. And dishonest.

 Eric9Points 14 Nov 2020
In reply to kevin stephens:

I agree that this is the most likely reason for the departures. He now sees the results of their disastrous advice.

Whether he can now repair any of it is questionable I'm afraid.

In reply to baron:

> But not until the Brexit deal is or isn’t done and then he’ll be gone.

Brexit has happened; we're currently living in the Brexit deal (negotiated by May and rebranded by Johnson).

What remains is to succeed or fail at negotiating a trade deal with our nearest and largest trade partner before the transitional deal ends.

The nutters in his party will scream about capitulation regardless of what terms he gets with any deal (all trade deals have conditions, any condition can be claimed to be a loss of sovereignty) - they're a mix of ideologues, and parasites who will be able to profit from the disruption a failure will result in.

He probably has to overrule them, as he doesn't want to go down in history as having added chaos and disruption on top of the peak of the second covid wave, by failing to agree any deal after two years negotiating it. His legacy is probably best served by something he can spin as being a gain in sovereignty while still having avoided failing to get a deal. "No deal brexit" would just be temporary disruption and loss anyway, Britain isn't going to continue indefinitely without setting up a trade deal with the EEA, that'd just be silly - so it'd be all short term cost, no gain.

I don't think any deal negotiated now will be "Norway-style", that's probably too much capitulation (although fingers crossed!) Maybe something 'Canada-style' might be possible if he caves on a couple of his red lines. Although he might fail to overrule the nutters, of course, in which case it's not going to be a great winter, but we can maybe cave in in the spring or summer instead.

In reply to kevin stephens:

I think the most likely explanation for all this is that a huge number of Tory MPs - thinking of their careers – have been putting pressure on Johnson not to go for the madness of a no-deal Brexit (which I suppose Cummings, in his perversity, was going for.) I.e. there was a genuine huge row. But that still leaves the puzzle of the very staged/histrionic departure of Cummings through the front door of No.10 with the box. 

 kevin stephens 14 Nov 2020
In reply to skog:

> Brexit has happened; we're currently living in the Brexit deal (negotiated by May and rebranded by Johnson).

That’s not so. We’re currently living in the Transition Period which gives many a false sense of security being insulated from the real impact of Brexit from start of 2021

In reply to kevin stephens:

What's not so?

> We’re currently living in the Transition Period which gives many a false sense of security being insulated from the real impact of Brexit from start of 2021

Yes. That kicked in after brexit happening on 31st Jan - we're out of the EU, but the deal May negotiated means we still get many of the benefits of being in it (and many of the costs and rules).

Any deal struck now is independent of brexit, it's just being spun as part of it to make 'no deal brexit' sound like a thing some might like, when it's actually just 'failure to negotiate the terms we'll operate with when the transitional period ends'.

 Roadrunner6 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

" is anyone really expecting gridlock and food shortages to last years?"

Wow.. just wow. That's what it has become in a nut shell. "Yeah it'll be bad but it won't last years.."

 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to Roadrunner6:

> " is anyone really expecting gridlock and food shortages to last years?"

> Wow.. just wow. That's what it has become in a nut shell. "Yeah it'll be bad but it won't last years.."

I don’t think gridlock and food shortages will last more than days or maybe a week or two even with a no deal.

Is that better?

11
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

> He never had a hope in hell of getting a 'Churchillian place' in history. He won't even get an Anthony Eden place in history. He's just so much worse than anything we've ever see before. Totally out of his depth; bumbling, incompetent and indecisive. And dishonest.

Rumour has it that the next release of the Civilization VI strategy game is going to reinstate the leader rankings table, and replace Dan Quayle, at the foot of the rankings, with Donald Trump.

Boris Johnson is going to replace Ethelred the Unready, one place above Trump.

https://civilization.fandom.com/wiki/Civilization_IV/Scoring_table

 john arran 14 Nov 2020
In reply to Blunderbuss:

> Churchillian place in history?!!!

> What makes you think he will ever get close to this? 

Far more like a Chamberlainian place in history; appeasing the populists even though ruination of the country was at stake.

If only we had a genuine Churchilian figure around now to rescue us from our current predicament.

 Andy Hardy 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> I don’t think gridlock and food shortages will last more than days or maybe a week or two even with a no deal.

> Is that better?

Is that, in any way realistic? If customs checks (required for WTO rules) cause gridlock, how is it only going to last a week? 

In reply to baron:

> He’ll be finished as a politician if he allows a soft Brexit and possibly, more importantly in his eyes, he won’t achieve his Churchillian place in history.

To almost quote Churchill, I fear the only way history will be kind to Boris is if intends to write it himself. Speaking as an ex-English teacher, I ungenerously regard it as a blessing that his "simple and readable" book on Shakespeare has still not been published. Whatever Boris's fundamental values and attitudes are, I'm pretty sure I don't share them and I certainly don't want to see our national literary genius conscripted to support them.

 lorentz 14 Nov 2020
In reply to kevin stephens:

> That’s not so. We’re currently living in the Transition Period which gives many a false sense of security being insulated from the real impact of Brexit from start of 2021

I agree. Just gonna leave this here... Feels like the sea receding before the Tsunami arrives, to me.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54908129

Post edited at 16:30
In reply to john arran:

I think this is a bit unfair on Chamberlain, who was a misguided but decent man. 

Boris is more likely to have an Oswald Mosley place in history.

 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to Andy Hardy:

> Is that, in any way realistic? If customs checks (required for WTO rules) cause gridlock, how is it only going to last a week? 

Because neither the UK nor the EU can afford for gridlock to continue indefinitely.

Businesses on both sides of the Channel will exert enough pressure for a solution to be found.

3
 Doug 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> Businesses on both sides of the Channel will exert enough pressure for a solution to be found.

Businesses & organisations such as the CBI have been trying to put pressure on the gouvernment for several years already with no/little effect so far. Hope you are right but wouldn't be so certain of a quick fix

 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to Andy Clarke:

> To almost quote Churchill, I fear the only way history will be kind to Boris is if intends to write it himself. Speaking as an ex-English teacher, I ungenerously regard it as a blessing that his "simple and readable" book on Shakespeare has still not been published. Whatever Boris's fundamental values and attitudes are, I'm pretty sure I don't share them and I certainly don't want to see our national literary genius conscripted to support them.

I’m sure that Johnson sees himself in the Churchill role - and probably intends to write an autobiography that portrays him as such - whereas as others have already said he’s nowhere near in that mould 

 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to Doug:

> Businesses & organisations such as the CBI have been trying to put pressure on the gouvernment for several years already with no/little effect so far. Hope you are right but wouldn't be so certain of a quick fix

We’ll soon find out.

 Roadrunner6 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> Because neither the UK nor the EU can afford for gridlock to continue indefinitely.

> Businesses on both sides of the Channel will exert enough pressure for a solution to be found.

This was the argument about German cars.. it didn't work. The EU can, quite simply the UK is more dependent on the EU than vice versa. That's just simple size issue. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46612362?elqTrackId=C45AC75C538EDCCAD29EFCD55744A477&elqTrack=true

 neilh 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

I had an email from U.K. Gov last week detailing the new customs procedures between NI and the mainland.Yes that is right customs procedures following the new “border”. This includes all the new protocols etc.
 

It is scandalous. Outright disgraceful. A U.K. gov imposing this on part of the Union. I still cannot believe it.

 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to Roadrunner6:

> This was the argument about German cars.. it didn't work. The EU can, quite simply the UK is more dependent on the EU than vice versa. That's just simple size issue. 

It’s not the same argument at all.

Businesses on both sides of the Channel depend upon hassle free travel. Gridlock won’t just be a UK problem.

It’s not about who will suffer the most unless you’ suggesting that EU leaders will stand by and watch businesses lose money.

And if they are prepared to do so then I doubt that national leaders of EU countries are prepared to do the same.

4
 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to neilh:

> I had an email from U.K. Gov last week detailing the new customs procedures between NI and the mainland.Yes that is right customs procedures following the new “border”. This includes all the new protocols etc.

> It is scandalous. Outright disgraceful. A U.K. gov imposing this on part of the Union. I still cannot believe it.

Isn’t the border one of the EU’s demands?

And one that the government plans to ignore, Maybe?

12
 elsewhere 14 Nov 2020
 Doug 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> Isn’t the border one of the EU’s demands?

My memory is that a certain A Johnson MP voted against this helping the then PM loose her post. Then PM A Johnson agreed to the idea a little later.

> And one that the government plans to ignore, Maybe?

Who knows, probably not what passes for a gouvernment in Westminster at the moment

 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to Doug:

> My memory is that a certain A Johnson MP voted against this helping the then PM loose her post. Then PM A Johnson agreed to the idea a little later.

Not like Johnson to change his mind, is it?

> Who knows, probably not what passes for a gouvernment in Westminster at the moment

Haven’t you heard? The government has been reset!

 Doug 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

is that 'reset' as in Scots law ?

 Andy Hardy 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

The EU can afford it much more than we can.

 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to Doug:

> is that 'reset' as in Scots law ?

Obviously I had to google that.

I’m sure that’s not what the government intended reset to mean but I’ sure that many people will find it more than appropriate!

Made me laugh anyway!

 Doug 14 Nov 2020
 wbo2 14 Nov 2020
In reply to kevin stephens: isn't the issue that Cummings has been briefing against Boris, perhaps as he know the PM is a weak willed jelly scared of bad press and likely to sign anything? 

To Baron, and keeping it civil : honestly I think you're incredibly naive about this, and have definitely had a little too much of the kool-aid.   The attitude in the EU is that this your mess, deal with it.  Canada deal? Not happening,  no matter what  Boris might want. They've said that very clearly. 

  Border chaos should be fixable in 6 months if you try hard ( if....) .  Economic damage 10+ years to fix, to get back where UK wealth is now

 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to Andy Hardy:

> The EU can afford it much more than we can.

The EU maybe  but national leaders are under immense pressure to prevent their country’s businesses going.

There could be some interesting interactions between EU leaders and government leaders.

5
 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to wbo2:

> isn't the issue that Cummings has been briefing against Boris, perhaps as he know the PM is a weak willed jelly scared of bad press and likely to sign anything? 

> To Baron, and keeping it civil : honestly I think you're incredibly naive about this, and have definitely had a little too much of the kool-aid.   The attitude in the EU is that this your mess, deal with it.  Canada deal? Not happening,  no matter what  Boris might want. They've said that very clearly. 

>   Border chaos should be fixable in 6 months if you try hard ( if....) .  Economic damage 10+ years to fix, to get back where UK wealth is now

The attitude of the EU politicians might be one of it’s your mess you sort it out but I doubt that  European business owners have the same laissez faire approach. Especially the smaller businesses.

 wercat 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

Given the great deception I see him as the fake keeping a donkey in a little hut pretending it is a God.   Hopefully that god will come and carry him off ignominiously under its arm, as happened   when the real god Tash arrived.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tash_(Narnia)

Post edited at 18:28
 john arran 14 Nov 2020
In reply to wbo2:

> Economic damage 10+ years to fix, to get back where UK wealth is now

I've yet to see any sensible suggestion that the UK could recover economically from Brexit in as little as 10 years, even from hard-nosed Brexiters. In fact, I've yet to see any reasoned and credible argument as to how the economic damage resulting from permanently poorer trading relations (with plenty of other countries, not just with the EU) could ever be reversed.

In reply to baron:

> it’s been a long time since the troops of the countries comprising the EU have overrun anyone.*

EU and whose army...?

I seem to recall the 'EU Army' being one of the things Vote Leave kept banging on about...

 wercat 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> Isn’t the border one of the EU’s demands?

that single question crystallizes or encapsulates the vast gulf of understanding that separates Brexit supporters from reality

It is like the DUP member of the Parliamentary select committee looking at Brexit who asked why any border between Britain and Ireland after Brexit would differ from one between, say, Belgium and the Netherlands.

This was described by another member on Any Questions and it caused her to realize just how little Brexiteers understood.

Post edited at 18:35
 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to wercat:

> that single question crystallizes or encapsulates the vast gulf of understanding that separates Brexit supporters from reality

> It is like the DUP member of the Parliamentary select committee looking at Brexit who asked why any border between Britain and Ireland after Brexit would differ from one between, say, Belgium and the Netherlands.

> This was described by another member on Any Questions and it caused her to realize just how little Brexiteers understood.

I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make.

1
 Tyler 14 Nov 2020
In reply to Trangia:

> As for a soft Brexit, I think he is stuck now because that's what Biden wants him to do, and as we've chucked away or screwed up most other trade options we definitely need the USA as trading partners if we are going to get out of the upcoming post Covid mess. 

Is this true? One of the many arguments against Brexit was that a free trade deal with the US would have negligible effect in increasing GDP so whilst a deal was necessary politically it was meaningless economically. Johnson will know this so I don't see why not getting a US deal will drive his behaviour if the upset to his base is less than the fallout from BINO.

My own view was that Macron was talking up the importance of fishing a couple of weeks ago to give Johnson a fig leaf to hide behind, in a future deal the EU will make a great play of giving up their fishing demands in return for everything else they want. Johnson can take this emblematic victory in the hope that his base don't notice he's had his pants pulled down.

 neilh 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

it was something Johnson agreed to anyway. 

it’s one of those circular arguments that gets nowhere. 
 

I still cannot believe that you have to put customs codes on goods coming from NI to the rest of the U.K. and ice versa. In one fell swoop NI has been separated. It’s appalling 

 HansStuttgart 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> The attitude of the EU politicians might be one of it’s your mess you sort it out but I doubt that  European business owners have the same laissez faire approach. Especially the smaller businesses.


It's not laissez faire. It's exploiting a situation that hurts the British competitors more to increase your market share.

Brexit is about economic competition.

Anyway, the gridlock situation is asymmetric. Part of the hassle is intrinsic because UK left the EU. Part of it is due to insufficient preparation and routine in the border checks. EU is much better prepared (e.g., the warehouses for trade with UK in Rotterdam were built years ago, custom officers have been trained some time ago, etc.). So the gridlock will be obviously in the UK at the checks where the UK government is responsible. EU will simply say, your problem, sort it out. It's not like a French company lobbying the French government is going to have any effect in UK gov sorting out its customs declaration system...

 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to neilh:

> it was something Johnson agreed to anyway. 

> it’s one of those circular arguments that gets nowhere. 

> I still cannot believe that you have to put customs codes on goods coming from NI to the rest of the U.K. and ice versa. In one fell swoop NI has been separated. It’s appalling 

I’m not doubting what you’re saying but it’s leaving me even more confused than normal.

If there’s going to be a border down the Irish Sea and the UK government has agreed to it why has Johnson said he’ll break international law over the NI situation?

In reply to baron:

> I’m sure that Johnson sees himself in the Churchill role - and probably intends to write an autobiography that portrays him as such - whereas as others have already said he’s nowhere near in that mould 

Well, one thing we can agree on: it's going to be some kind of mould!

 Andy Hardy 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

A business in the EU can sell to the other 26 countries, plus all the countries the EU has trade deals with more easily than to the UK. It won't be great for them, but it will be survivable. Making a wing for Airbus or a car for Nissan probably won't make economic sense without a deal hence we in the UK will take a much longer, harder shellacking than any nation in the EU. 

UK business have tried to exert pressure to get a deal on our "government", so far the response has been "F*ck business"

 kevin stephens 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> I’m not doubting what you’re saying but it’s leaving me even more confused than normal.

> If there’s going to be a border down the Irish Sea and the UK government has agreed to it why has Johnson said he’ll break international law over the NI situation?

A border is needed because of different taxation, standards and trade tariffs between GB (if not the UK!) and EU.  if most of the border controls are between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland it's likely to break the Good Friday Agreement.  If instead most of the controls are down the Irish Sea then the Good Friday Agreement is more likely to be intact, but the United Kingdom could in effect be split.  Boris and the Brexiters have  dodged this dilemma since the referendum.   Even at this very late stage Boris is trying to fudge the issue.  If border controls down the Irish Sea prove to be unmanageable then Boris would like the option to break international law in his "limited and specific way"

Post edited at 19:54
 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to kevin stephens:

> A border is needed because of different taxation, standards and trade tariffs between GB (if not the UK!) and EU.  if most of the border controls are between Norther Ireland and the Republic of Ireland it's likely to break the good Friday Agreement.  If instead most of the control are down the Irish Sea then the Good Friday Agreement is more likely to be intact, but the United Kingdom could in effect be split.  Boris and the Brexiters have  dodged this dilemma since the referendum.   Even at this very late stage Boris is trying to fudge the issue.  If border controls down the Irish Sea prove to be unmanageable the Boris would like the option to break international law in his "limited and specific way"

Thanks for that.

In reply to baron:

> Anyway Johnson gained a huge election victory mainly due to his stance on Brexit. 

His stance on Brexit at the election was an "Oven-ready deal".

 kevin stephens 14 Nov 2020
In reply to Alkis:

Well maybe he's had his oven ready chips, with humble pie

 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to Alkis:

> His stance on Brexit at the election was an "Oven-ready deal".

His stance was Get Brexit Done.

Which he did.

You didn’t believe he had an oven ready deal, neither did I and I doubt that most others did either.

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 ripper 14 Nov 2020
In reply to kevin stephens:

Whereas those of us in the real world are left holding a shit sandwich. BBC reporting "chaos" at Felixstowe today with one big cargo ship being diverted to land at Rotterdam instead, due to "unacceptable" delays - this before Brexit has even happened...

 lorentz 14 Nov 2020
In reply to ripper:

> Whereas those of us in the real world are left holding a shit sandwich. BBC reporting "chaos" at Felixstowe today with one big cargo ship being diverted to land at Rotterdam instead, due to "unacceptable" delays - this before Brexit has even happened...

Exactly... As above. Feels like the sea going out before the Brexit tidal wave hits. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54908129

 climbingpixie 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> Because neither the UK nor the EU can afford for gridlock to continue indefinitely.

I thought the UK had given up on the idea of border and customs checks for the first 6 months so any gridlock is going to be asymmetrically concentrated on the UK side.

 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to climbingpixie:

> I thought the UK had given up on the idea of border and customs checks for the first 6 months so any gridlock is going to be asymmetrically concentrated on the UK side.

While EU lorries might enter the UK without delay they’ll be stuck in a queue waiting to return home.

 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to ripper:

> Whereas those of us in the real world are left holding a shit sandwich. BBC reporting "chaos" at Felixstowe today with one big cargo ship being diverted to land at Rotterdam instead, due to "unacceptable" delays - this before Brexit has even happened...

Yes, if only the government hadn’t ordered all that PPE!

3
 dmhigg 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> While EU lorries might enter the UK without delay they’ll be stuck in a queue waiting to return home.

So...they trade with the other states in Europe instead. By driving there. We don't have that luxury. But most of our trade is with Europe. 

 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to dmhigg:

> So...they trade with the other states in Europe instead. By driving there. We don't have that luxury. But most of our trade is with Europe. 

They have that ability now but seem pretty keen to maintain trading with the UK.

Why, otherwise, would they be continuing to engage in trade talks?

Edited because I’m an idiot.

Post edited at 22:24
 dmhigg 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> Yes, if only the government hadn’t ordered all that PPE!

Again, not the point. The government can't organise the unloading of a shipment of PPE now, pre Brexit. That doesn't bode well for a similar situation with extra customs checks post Brexit.

 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to dmhigg:

> Again, not the point. The government can't organise the unloading of a shipment of PPE now, pre Brexit. That doesn't bode well for a similar situation with extra customs checks post Brexit.

The BBC report that part of the problem is to harbour company furloughed too many staff.

 jethro kiernan 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron

> His stance was Get Brexit Done.

> Which he did.

?? When did that happen, We don’t exit the interim agreement until Dec 31st,  brexit isn’t done until we get to the sunny uplands.

 dmhigg 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

Because they want a trade deal. Because that would be best for everybody (and a big reason for staying in the EU). Because they are trying to help Boris and Gove dig themselves out of the hole they have put themselves in. 

The question to ask is why Boris is still there. Because, as he explained in the past, before he changed his mind, no deal is a disaster for the UK. If you look on YouTube, you can also find Gove explaining to the farmers how screwed they will be with no deal. If we really held any cards, he'd have walked away.

 dmhigg 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> The BBC report that part of the problem is to harbour company furloughed too many staff.

If I were in government, I hope I would have taken that into account. That's what the government's for.

 Roadrunner6 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> His stance was Get Brexit Done.

> Which he did.

> You didn’t believe he had an oven ready deal, neither did I and I doubt that most others did either.

Then why did he say this:

"Sitting beside a marble bust of Sir Isaac Newton, Mr Johnson spoke of his determination to defy gravity and finish the job. He said: “We’ve got a deal that’s oven-ready.

“We’ve just got to put it in at gas mark four, give it 20 minutes and Bob’s your uncle.

“There’s only one way to get Brexit done and there’s only one way to get it done fast and that’s to vote for us, vote for the Conservatives."

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10267938/boris-johnson-vote-tory-brexit/

That sounds very much like he believed he had an 'oven ready' deal.. or you'd be forgiven for thinking that because that's what he bloody well said..

Post edited at 23:02
 dmhigg 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> His stance was Get Brexit Done.

> Which he did.

> You didn’t believe he had an oven ready deal, neither did I and I doubt that most others did either.

I'd really love to know what you and the others did believe, because you seem to have made a pretty important decision based on your beliefs. From an earlier post you don't seem to have twigged on the whole Irish border thing either, which is actually quite important.

If you do answer, I'm afraid you're not allowed to use the word "sovereignty": it seems to have become an acceptable way of saying you don't like foreigners and I don't want to think that xenophobia is at the heart of Brexit.

 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to Roadrunner6:

> Then why did he say this:

> "Sitting beside a marble bust of Sir Isaac Newton, Mr Johnson spoke of his determination to defy gravity and finish the job. He said: “We’ve got a deal that’s oven-ready.

> “We’ve just got to put it in at gas mark four, give it 20 minutes and Bob’s your uncle.

> “There’s only one way to get Brexit done and there’s only one way to get it done fast and that’s to vote for us, vote for the Conservatives."

> That sounds very much like he believed he had an 'oven ready' deal.. or you'd be forgiven for thinking that because that's what he bloody well said..

He’s a liar.

I know that and so do you.

I didn’t believe him so why did you?

11
 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to dmhigg:

You’re about 4 years too late to the UKC Brexit party.

If you think I’m going to rerun the whole thing then I’m sorry but I’ have to disappoint you.

2
 baron 14 Nov 2020
In reply to jethro kiernan:

> In reply to baron

> ?? When did that happen, We don’t exit the interim agreement until Dec 31st,  brexit isn’t done until we get to the sunny uplands.

I was criticised a few weeks ago for not saying that Brexit was done when it was.

I wish you remainers would make up your minds!

5
 Sir Chasm 14 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> He’s a liar.

> I know that and so do you.

> I didn’t believe him so why did you?

So who did you think was going to deliver your, completely undefined, vision of brexit? 

 dmhigg 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> You’re about 4 years too late to the UKC Brexit party.

> If you think I’m going to rerun the whole thing then I’m sorry but I’ have to disappoint you.

That's fine. I was just hoping to hear that there is a point to Brexit, rather than "sovereignty". If you hadn't thought about the NI border issue you've not convinced me that a lot of consideration went into your referendum vote. If this seems antagonistic and a bit impolite, I apologise. I'm bored of being told Brexit is good because more people voted for it. I'm waiting to see an obvious advantage and trumpeting a trade deal that is nearly as good as the one we have now, celebrating the end of freedom of movement without talking about Britons not now being able to work in Europe, dropping the wage requirement for immigrants because the experts were right - our economy needs immigrants: all this makes me think we're doing something that really isn't a good idea but no one has the cocones to say so.

 jethro kiernan 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> I was criticised a few weeks ago for not saying that Brexit was done when it was.

> I wish you remainers would make up your minds!


 

I’ll bring it up in our next UKC cabal meeting in our secret lair.

item # 1

get stories straight!

 baron 15 Nov 2020
In reply to Sir Chasm:

> So who did you think was going to deliver your, completely undefined, vision of brexit? 

Johnson, just not with an oven ready deal.

My vision of Brexit has been well defined over numerous posts over many years. But you know that.

6
 baron 15 Nov 2020
In reply to jethro kiernan:

> I’ll bring it up in our next UKC cabal meeting in our secret lair.

> item # 1

> get stories straight!

That would be appreciated.

Thank you.

 baron 15 Nov 2020
In reply to dmhigg:

> That's fine. I was just hoping to hear that there is a point to Brexit, rather than "sovereignty". If you hadn't thought about the NI border issue you've not convinced me that a lot of consideration went into your referendum vote. If this seems antagonistic and a bit impolite, I apologise. I'm bored of being told Brexit is good because more people voted for it. I'm waiting to see an obvious advantage and trumpeting a trade deal that is nearly as good as the one we have now, celebrating the end of freedom of movement without talking about Britons not now being able to work in Europe, dropping the wage requirement for immigrants because the experts were right - our economy needs immigrants: all this makes me think we're doing something that really isn't a good idea but no one has the cocones to say so.

You’ll find that the vast majority of people who post about Brexit on UKC think it’s a ridiculous idea and they’re certainly not shy about voicing their displeasure about it and the people who voted for it.

If you’re anti Brexit then you’ve come to the right place.

 ripper 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> If you’re anti Brexit then you’ve come to the right place.

The thing is, for me it's no longer about being anti Brexit. What I'm really anti is the staggering level of incompetence this government is bringing to the so-called negotiations. Oh, and the lying - that rankles a bit too. 

 neilh 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

I will post you a link to the new guidance tomorrow. It’s unreal. 

 Shani 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> While we can argue exactly how damaging Brexit will be to the economy is anyone really expecting gridlock and food shortages to last years?

Years?

You think there are going to be gridlock and food shortages over the next year at least?

 baron 15 Nov 2020
In reply to Shani:

> Years?

> You think there are going to be gridlock and food shortages over the next year at least?

No, that was another posters opinion.

 baron 15 Nov 2020
In reply to neilh:

> I will post you a link to the new guidance tomorrow. It’s unreal. 

Thanks.

 Shani 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> No, that was another posters opinion.

Your acquiescence was implied when you wrote, "While we can argue exactly how damaging Brexit will be to the economy is anyone really expecting gridlock and food shortages to last years?"

 wbo2 15 Nov 2020
In reply to Shani: - I don't see how you're going to clear it out in anything under 6 months.   And given the lack of preparation and general lack of competence, decision, at the higher levels I'd call that optimistic.  

So you'll see limited/inconsistnet supply of imported items for a while.  

You can run a book on how much inflation will be in the first 6 months of next year.

 baron 15 Nov 2020
In reply to Shani:

> Your acquiescence was implied when you wrote, "While we can argue exactly how damaging Brexit will be to the economy is anyone really expecting gridlock and food shortages to last years?"

I think you’ve misunderstood.

A previous poster had stated that gridlock and shortages would last for years.

I was asking whether anyone really believed that.

And then went on in a later post to explain that I foresaw disruption on a day to weeks timescale.

 Shani 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> I think you’ve misunderstood.

I had.

 baron 15 Nov 2020
In reply to Shani:

> I had.

I probably didn’t explain myself very well, it wouldn’t be the first time.

In reply to baron:

> I was criticised a few weeks ago for not saying that Brexit was done when it was.

> I wish you remainers would make up your minds!

That was me, I think.

I'm not a remainer (though I used to be). The UK has left the EU, there's no way to remain.

I'd like it to rejoin, but realistically, that's a long way off if it ever happens; the EU won't want the UK back just now anyway, we'd just be a nuisance as we'd keep threatening to leave again.

So yeah, brexit is done. And the transitional deal ends soon.

The consequences of brexit are far from done, and if we don't manage to make any trade deal at all with the EU before the transitional deal ends, that'll be a spectacular failure with real consequences for many.

 Alyson30 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> I think you’ve misunderstood.

> A previous poster had stated that gridlock and shortages would last for years.

> I was asking whether anyone really believed that.

> And then went on in a later post to explain that I foresaw disruption on a day to weeks timescale.

Short term disruption isn't the main issue (even though I am certain that the government will do a terrible of managing them).
The issue is a permanent long term brake on the economy due to higher costs of doing business. 
That is the impact that will dwarf anything else over time. Even the impact of Covid is minimal in comparison.

But obviously that is an impact that people will perceive only 10 years down the line, when they realise they are visibly poorer than their European counterparts.

Post edited at 14:14
 Andy Hardy 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> I think you’ve misunderstood.

> A previous poster had stated that gridlock and shortages would last for years.

> I was asking whether anyone really believed that.

> And then went on in a later post to explain that I foresaw disruption on a day to weeks timescale.

If you're thinking of my replies to your disruption projections I did not say disruption would last for years. I asked you how we could trade under WTO rules, (which require customs checks) without causing chaos. And you applied typical quitters magical thinking: businesses will complain and the govt will sort something out. Here's the scoop: businesses are screaming for a deal now and being ignored, so that avenue is closed. Now how about you explain how we can have customs checks, and not cause massive disruption? 

 Shani 15 Nov 2020
In reply to Alyson30:

> Short term disruption isn't the main issue (even though I am certain that the government will do a terrible of managing them).

> The issue is a permanent long term brake on the economy due to higher costs of doing business. 

> That is the impact that will dwarf anything else over time. Even the impact of Covid is minimal in comparison.

This is only one side of the coin. The fire-sale of state assets is a real problem. 

Deals such as rail-privatisation and the selling off of MOD Housing have been disastrous, but were subject to a degree of scrutiny. 

in contrast, legal provision for COVID has provided secrecy & opacity for self-enrichment at the highest levels - from poorly managed PPE & IT deals to the ports clusterf*ck mentioned above (who'd have ever thought the Venn overlap of COVID and Brexit could ovelap at such a crucial and impactful time as Xmas?).

The Government and Right-wing press are going to need scapegoats. We'll be told that the poor need to pull their weight. We'll be told the furloughed and yhose on welfare are unaffordable. Our few remaining prized assets will be up for grabs. The NHS is on borrowed time.

I'm not left-wing. The current capitalist model is far from a free market and riddled with corruption that strangles innovation and makes meritorious advancement unlikely.

Like addicts, those in positions of power & influence can't escape their own greed. Nor can they see that their reliance on others for their continued good fortune.

Thus, the UK has a f*cking hard landing ahead of it.

 baron 15 Nov 2020
In reply to Andy Hardy:

I believe that we already have customs checks for non EU goods that enter the country.

They don’t seem to cause gridlock and shortages as predicted by some.
 

According to a National Audit Office report -

‘Revenue & Customs clears most imported goods quickly, and processes for submitting customs declarations and payments for non-EU imports are straightforward, says a report out today from the National Audit Office. The rate of physical checks at the UK border is below the EU average, however, and the number of audits of traders has dropped substantially since 2005-06.

Ninety-nine per cent of declarations are processed electronically and 90 per cent of goods are cleared immediately. The Department checks documents for about 6 per cent of imports each year and aims to clear 95 per cent of these within two hours’

The report does go on to say there are some issues with the system.

4
In reply to baron:

> While we can argue exactly how damaging Brexit will be to the economy is anyone really expecting gridlock and food shortages to last years?

It's just a flesh wound.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UijhbHvxWrA&

 Andy Hardy 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/news/scotland/no-deal-brexit-plans-branded-bonkers-by-road-haulage-association/

This is a business lobby group, being ignored by govt

"A no-deal Brexit could mean hauliers will be forced to rely on international road haulage permits known as ECMT permits, he said, demand for which far outstrips supply.

There are only about 4,000 of these permits despite more than 40,000 being required, he said, and it is not possible to print more as the UK is only allocated a certain amount.

Mr McKenzie added: “This is where we are now, the current default position is that we are effectively stopping the best part of 90% of companies from trading with Europe. It’s bonkers.”"

there are 4,000,000 HGVs crossing the channel every year, bringing 70% of our imported food. However much you want to wish the problem away, we are screwed if we hold these lorries up and we have to because the government won't do a deal.

 jimtitt 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> I believe that we already have customs checks for non EU goods that enter the country.

> They don’t seem to cause gridlock and shortages as predicted by some.

> According to a National Audit Office report -

> ‘Revenue & Customs clears most imported goods quickly, and processes for submitting customs declarations and payments for non-EU imports are straightforward, says a report out today from the National Audit Office. The rate of physical checks at the UK border is below the EU average, however, and the number of audits of traders has dropped substantially since 2005-06.

> Ninety-nine per cent of declarations are processed electronically and 90 per cent of goods are cleared immediately. The Department checks documents for about 6 per cent of imports each year and aims to clear 95 per cent of these within two hours’

> The report does go on to say there are some issues with the system.


You've only got to hope the French customs are equally relaxed for British exports into the EU. History shows this is unlikely.

 baron 15 Nov 2020
In reply to Andy Hardy:

Our government won’t do a deal.

Is there something you know that everyone else doesn’t?

Or is it just wishful thinking on your behalf?

1
 baron 15 Nov 2020
In reply to jimtitt:

> You've only got to hope the French customs are equally relaxed for British exports into the EU. History shows this is unlikely.

Surely the French wouldn’t do anything to cause the U.K. any grief?

5
 jimtitt 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> Surely the French wouldn’t do anything to cause the U.K. any grief?


You forgot the +

 baron 15 Nov 2020
In reply to jimtitt:

> You forgot the +

Sorry, I didn’t think it was necessary. 😀

 Andy Hardy 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

Are you at all capable of answering the question? 

4,000,000 HGVs cross the channel annually, how can there be customs checks without chaos in Dover?

 Shani 15 Nov 2020
In reply to Andy Hardy:

> Are you at all capable of answering the question? 

> 4,000,000 HGVs cross the channel annually, how can there be customs checks without chaos in Dover?

Bring it in through Ireland as there will be no border on the island of Ireland, and no border within the UK.

Any other circles you want me to square? ;)

 baron 15 Nov 2020
In reply to Andy Hardy:

> Are you at all capable of answering the question? 

> 4,000,000 HGVs cross the channel annually, how can there be customs checks without chaos in Dover?

What percentage of the HGV’s  will be checked out of the circa 10,000 that cross the channel daily?

20%? 15%? 10%?
Because the length of delays will depend upon that %.

 jimtitt 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

On the French side or the UK?

 baron 15 Nov 2020
In reply to jimtitt:

The EU side.

I think it’s about  an average of 9% at the moment varying between EU countries.

The U.K. side is about 2%.

1
 Shani 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> What percentage of the HGV’s  will be checked out of the circa 10,000 that cross the channel daily?

> 20%? 15%? 10%?

> Because the length of delays will depend upon that %.

In part that % is important,  but any estimate also needs to account for the as yet incomplete IT system, the as yet unrecruited and untrained 50,000 new customs staff, to implement the as yet undefined customs process.

 baron 15 Nov 2020
In reply to Shani:

> In part that % is important,  but any estimate also needs to account for the as yet incomplete IT system, the as yet unrecruited and untrained 50,000 new customs staff, to implement the as yet undefined customs process.

Indeed.

1
 wercat 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

the only time I've bought anything from the US that was over the limit for duty it was held in customs for a couple of weeks before I got it.  It was quicker to get stuff from Bulgaria.

> I believe that we already have customs checks for non EU goods that enter the country.

> They don’t seem to cause gridlock and shortages as predicted by some.

 Andy Hardy 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> What percentage of the HGV’s  will be checked out of the circa 10,000 that cross the channel daily?

> 20%? 15%? 10%?

> Because the length of delays will depend upon that %.

How many minutes are there between ferries to conduct the checks? Because if any lorries are still to be checked when the next lot turn up we have a problem. 

 baron 15 Nov 2020
In reply to Andy Hardy:

> How many minutes are there between ferries to conduct the checks? Because if any lorries are still to be checked when the next lot turn up we have a problem. 

This would indeed cause issues.

It appears that the French were taking measures to reduce the risk of delays -

https://www.lloydsloadinglist.com/freight-directory/news/France-to-recruit-700-extra-customs-officers-in-‘hard-Brexit’-preparations/72957.htm#.X7GORi3fWhA

 Sir Chasm 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> This would indeed cause issues.

> It appears that the French were taking measures to reduce the risk of delays -

So you're not only happy costing us money, but you're happy to cost our neighbours money in order to promulgate a scheme you can't list the benefits of. Bravo. 

 baron 15 Nov 2020
In reply to Sir Chasm:

> So you're not only happy costing us money, but you're happy to cost our neighbours money in order to promulgate a scheme you can't list the benefits of. Bravo. 

I’m ecstatic.

Anything that annoys you is fine by me.

10
 Sir Chasm 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> I’m ecstatic.

> Anything that annoys you is fine by me.

I'm not annoyed, merely puzzled as to how you think this is a good thing. 

 baron 15 Nov 2020
In reply to Sir Chasm:

> I'm not annoyed, merely puzzled as to how you think this is a good thing. 

Oh I think that you are annoyed.

Really annoyed.

Not because of Brexit but because you haven’t managed to wind me up.

Bye.

10
 Sir Chasm 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> I’m ecstatic.

> Anything that annoys you is fine by me.

Baron's a fan of racism, sexism, child abuse, murder, rape, littering, to start a long list. 

1
In reply to baron:

You're so creepy, you're off any scale. And now you tell us you're proud of it. It's almost as if you've forgotten you're on the world wide web. The Oxford Dictionary of Slang could do worse than use you as an exemplar of a 'jerk'. 

1
 Andy Hardy 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

Still no answers from you about *how* to have a closed / hard border without chaos.

Not that I was seriously expecting any.

 john arran 15 Nov 2020
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

Unfortunately, it appears that it's easier to garner craved attention by such behaviour than by positive actions and comments, especially when positivity may not come naturally. It's an easy, but I would like to think less than satisfying, fix.

 baron 15 Nov 2020
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

> You're so creepy, you're off any scale. And now you tell us you're proud of it. It's almost as if you've forgotten you're on the world wide web. The Oxford Dictionary of Slang could do worse than use you as an exemplar of a 'jerk'. 

You should know when someone is winding someone up.
(In this case, me annoying Sir Chasm in his usual attempts at attacking me. See his post of 20.50 for another example).

Except your hatred of all things Brexit has blinded you and removed your sense of humour.

3
 baron 15 Nov 2020
In reply to Andy Hardy:

> Still no answers from you about *how* to have a closed / hard border without chaos.

> Not that I was seriously expecting any.

Did you miss my reply at 20.26?

But your dismissive response tells me you don’t really want to engage in a debate.

 Andy Hardy 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

I read it, yes. I'm not sure how 700 additional french customs officials are going to prevent delays in Dover.

I was rather hoping you, who voted to take control of our borders, would have some ideas.

 baron 15 Nov 2020
In reply to Andy Hardy:

5000 HGVs a day arrive in Dover.

2% of them will be physically checked.

That’s 100 in a 24 hour period.

4 in an hour.

How’s that for a plan?

 ripper 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

it's a plan of sorts.... but I'm not sure what you're saying.

Using your figures, are you suggesting 14.4 minutes is plenty of time to conduct a lorry check - and to conduct one in that time slot, allowing no time between lorries, without fail and without stopping for 24 hours (and for the next 24hrs, etc ad infinitum)? If so, do you have any knowledge of lorry check procedures, on which you're basing this?

To be honest, to me (a layman, I fully admit) it sounds unlikely, without massive investment in staff, training and infrastructure which is exactly what this government has abjectly failed to do. If you can show me I'm wrong, I'll happily admit it. To be honest, I really hope I am wrong - I'd much rather things turn out fine and admit I called it wrong than have a complete shitshow for the sake of being proved right. 

 baron 15 Nov 2020
In reply to ripper:

I just cobbled the idea together.

Possibly just like the government will do.

There’ll possibly need to be somewhere to do the checking as Dover is short of space.

The time taken to check a vehicle will depend on the severity of the check and the number of people doing it.

Someone will be along shortly to diss the plan.

 Andy Hardy 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> 5000 HGVs a day arrive in Dover.

> 2% of them will be physically checked.

> That’s 100 in a 24 hour period.

> 4 in an hour.

> How’s that for a plan?

I think "woefully inadequate" covers it. 

 baron 15 Nov 2020
In reply to Andy Hardy:

> I think "woefully inadequate" covers it. 

Seems flawless to me.

 Sir Chasm 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> I just cobbled the idea together.

It doesn't show.

> Possibly just like the government will do.

No? Really?

> There’ll possibly need to be somewhere to do the checking as Dover is short of space.

You think?

> The time taken to check a vehicle will depend on the severity of the check and the number of people doing it.

Brexit thinking.

> Someone will be along shortly to diss the plan.

Shortly after someone comes up with a plan.

 jkarran 15 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> 2024 is a few years away. While we can argue exactly how damaging Brexit will be to the economy is anyone really expecting gridlock and food shortages to last years?

Not if they fell the government before 2024. Which they would.

> Anyway Johnson gained a huge election victory mainly due to his stance on Brexit.

Mainly due to playing our rotten electoral system.

> I suspect but obviously don’t know that many of his supporters will take a no deal and shortages over a climb down to a softer Brexit.

I was going to once again explain how brexit shortages can rapidly spiral out of control but instead I'm just going to say horseshit and go to bed.

jk

 wbo2 16 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> 5000 HGVs a day arrive in Dover.

> 2% of them will be physically checked.

> That’s 100 in a 24 hour period.

> 4 in an hour.

> How’s that for a plan?

Sounds like an open border - you should join the EU.  Actually less checking than is the case now, though obviously there's more than one man doing the checking.  More seriously thats only for vehicles entering the UK.  What about stuff going the other way? There is a distrust of the UK now that it's going to become a conduit for dumping substandard stuff to Europe, so they are potentially going to be checking every lorry,  Just say that's Europes problem - you can do that, but they can simply refuse to let ships dock till they have space to clear them so something needs to be done

The UK is, approx(?) 65% self sufficient in food? 18% in fruit, similar numbers for some other veg.  While I agree most people , particularly Brexit supporters will tolerate a couple weeks shortages I honestly expect it to drag for ages as you're starting from such a low point of preparation.

There are two types of Brexit supporters to consider- those who voted for it as they don't really think it will make much difference, and just want to give remainers, guardian readers a kick... but it will impact them, and those who really think they're going to get a huge economic boost and go back to the empire.. both groups are likely to be disappointed i.m.o.

When ,exactly is the Brexit bounce going to kick in?

 lorentz 16 Nov 2020
In reply to wbo2:

> When ,exactly is the Brexit bounce going to kick in?

When they've finally got that blue passport in their hammy fists... (And last up to the first time they're having to apply for a visa for their fortnight in benidorm.)

In reply to baron:

Dominic Grieve's opinion on Johnson's 'Churchillian place in history':

Those of us who have watched him in action as a colleague over the years can appreciate the engaging optimism that forms the base of his success as a communicator. But behind this lies a vacuum of detail, industry and integrity. It is this vacuum that gets filled by chaos. Equally troubling is the tendency when facing hard choices to take refuge in Churchillian “heroics” that serve only his personal short-term needs and can be reckless as to consequences.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/16/dominic-cummings-no10-boris-johnson


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