UKC

Has the loss of the HoR effectively trumped Trump? Anyone know the historical precedents for this? I think that Obama had a difficult time because of Senate v HoR issues.

Also, do these results represent light at the end of a tunnel, or simply an opportunity for more Trump bravado and grandstanding?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news

Cheers

Very sorry, I can't help as I live in the UK.

Inasmuch as this doesn't affect you (because of location), or that you don't have a view/information?

Just wondering 

Overall look like a success for Trump to me, unfortunately.  He's lost some power but nothing out of the ordinary for mid-term elections.  It's hardly a clear rejection of him by America.  The HoR has significant influence but he still controls the Senate, himself and increasingly the courts...

Trump has obviously done alright because if he hadn't, there'd have been umpteen threads on here about him losing ground. 

It's a very good result for the Democrats - but not enough.  Trump focused on campaigning where he wanted to get a re-election of Senators, and he got what he wanted.  Trump can keep on with a large part of agenda.

The Democrats can now use their position as a showcase to America for all of the things it wants to do - which will be voted down by the Senate.  It will make legislation hard to push through, but let's face it, they are going to be focusing on the election next year anyway!

Trump now gets a scapegoat for if anything doesn't go to plan.  He can always blame the Democrats in the HoR if America isn't great again.

All in all it's nice on the face of it for Democrats but American politics and society is as divided as ever.

Was reading that traditionally the democrats do badly in mid terms, so a gain in congress is actually quite a big deal. 

And of course DT lost the popular vote, not that it means anything

What a bonkers system! https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/dennis-hof-nevada-assembly_us_5be299...

Yes it is, though not unique to the USA I suspect! 

I just wonder if Trump had played to his strength - the booming economy- how well he would have done.

All that the midterms really shows is that the democratic system in the USA works. After 2 years Trump has been killed off effectively by the success of the Democrats in the House.Its now going to be a struggle in compromise to get anything done. Just like the last 6 years of Obama.

At least he cannot be impeached, which would have been a disaster for the Democrats imho.

And the Democrats still have not found a good candidate to take on Trump at the next election, hardly a great sign.

Bloomberg? 

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/17/us/politics/bloomberg-president-2020-dem...

How can this be? Wouldn't almost anyone be an improvement?

I am sick to the back teeth of American Elections and how long they take.  Its like a perpetual run-up to Christmas.

Next year or possibly this year they start gearing up for the Presidential Election.  It was never this bad before we got 24/7 News stations.

O'Rourke? He could be another Obama: young, charismatic and not from the past.

There was a mention recently that HRC may run again, I really hope not. That the GOP weren't wiped from the HoR and that they even made gains in the senate indicates that Trump will likely win the 2020 election. It sounds like the economy can be stretched long enough to fool the blue collars. Expect a war in the run-up, nothing secures a US presidency like the early stages of a war.

Thank you - that's clear enough!

Well he's just fired Sessions (well asked him to resign and he did) so he appears to be moving on the Russia investigation already

I like Beto, which probably means he's too liberal to succeed in America. His age, freshness and charisma are similar but Obama was much more centre-ground.

There's a beautiful UKC irony in the Lemming being snarky about someone else's non-climbing thread....

What?

Care to explain the irony?

I am fairly sure that The Lemming has started discussion threads regarding Trump, America, and other things outside of the UK, before today. 

Is he now inviting us to all quote back "Very sorry, I can't help as I live in the UK" every time he posts about some non-UK from now on?

If my opening statement is correct (hard to check, as he often posts in the "The Pub" forum where threads ultimately get deleted so it's hard to dig up "evidence") THEN shall we do it? I think he is inviting us to do so, and he would welcome it. 

Something similar could have been said about Trump in 2014.

One of the things to keep in mind is that a candidate does not have to convince voters of the other party in the US. He or she just has to convince a large fraction of the majority that do not vote to show up.

Still, the cynic in me thinks you are right...

Means less than nothing in this context. Complete red herring.

Bernie Sanders, they should have backed him against Trump instead of Clinton.

If the Democrats had seized the Senate as well, it could potentially have caused massive upset in the US money and securities markets, with a flight to bonds and a fall in the Dollar. This could have killed the still fragile growth. 

In my market, real estate, it could potentially have impacted on yields as the cost of borrowing increased, markets became volatile and risk was priced in. That would have affected you directly, assuming you have a pension and indirectly. 

Whilst the Blue Wave would have been great, given the US economy is still a staggering bleary eye calf, covered in shit, it's not the ideal outcome. 

and this would have had implications over here. 

So, it is important to the UK. 

For those that downvoted me, presumably for not saying "boo hiss Trump" and playing a reductive position, the best scenario would be to stymie Trump using the House and gradually erode his follower base and the man himself over the next 2 years.

By 2020, with more democrat leaning youngsters gaining the vote, 24 months of change in the Democratic movement, to hard, street fighting tactics not virtue signalling or wasted diversions of old then a transition to solid blue government could be achieved. 

and this may even aid the economy. Most probably will. 

!?

The US economy was growing steadily before Trump got elected and has continued to grow steadily. Real estate has been volatile but an exception.

Regarding pensions, take a look at how your funds have done over the last year. Mine have taken three hits, once when the US declared a trade war with China, once when they squared up to North Korea and finally when everyone started wondering what all this growth was actually built on. As a result I have accrued approximately phuq all over the past twelve months.

From a purely selfish point of view I'd go back to boring old Democrat economics any day.

"By 2020, with more democrat leaning youngsters gaining the vote,"

What makes you say that? Interesting piece in the Guardian today showing that under 40's are increasingly looking to populists for representation. Admittedly the story is European focussed but doubt USA is much different.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/08/national-populism-imm...

"The tendency to dismiss these movements as a political home for old, white racist men ignores the fact that Le Pen picked up much of her support not only from young men but young women in France, while in Austria, Germany, Italy and Sweden, national populists are strongest among the under-40s or draw their support fairly evenly from across age groups. And, when it comes to racism, studies have shown that this is falling, not rising"

 Whilst the Blue Wave would have been great, given the US economy is still a staggering bleary eye calf, covered in shit, it's not the ideal outcome. 

I'm giving you a thumbs up purely for this line.

Hahahahaha! Says the man who has single handedly started more threads about Trump than the rest of UKC combined

Depends on your way into politics is.

If it's all about the policy, about responsible government under which you're protected and enabled then yeah, a rattlesnake on crack could give Trump a run for his money.

If it's about the entertainment, the tub thumping pageantry of election season dragged out over a whole (un)presidential term... Trump's going to be hard to beat and he's doing a cracking job of disarming those in the press and law enforcement that can hold a light up to his many failings.

jk

But how much of that "fragile growth" and feel good factor  for Trump voters is from the magic money tree? ie increasing the already unsustainable national debt to fund tax cuts for businesses and voters, storing up problems for the future?

I think Trump should be more worried that Jim Acosta has been banned from the White House because allegedly he put "his hands on a young woman".

Doesn't this mean Donald can't now leave the WH because he won't be allowed back in?

Dave

I think there is greater turmoil for the UK and Europe  in the very near future without.  I don't doubt that when the USA sneezes the rest of the world gets a cold.  My complaint is that there is a disproportionate amount of news air-time and media newsprint inches devoted to the USA.

Yes report the news, but do we have to endure a rolling 2/4 year cycle of elections?

Because he's so funny, and scarily dangerous at the same time.

It was indeed growing, I didn't deny that, although I'm cautious as to he much of that is due to personal borrowing and  a reduction in volatility. Growth over the last couple of years has been partly due to infrastructure promises, some cheapening of debt and favourable exchange rates. Trump growth seems to be built on much shakier foundation. 

That's part my point, Trump has not delivered a stable economy. It's an economy that's holding it's breath, and what a lame duck president at war with his house and Senate could cause is much greater volatility and flight. 

Real estate is heading for a rebound in many markets. We are already seeing compression in prime markets, even in the likes of industrial and logistics. that in part means limited growth as funds switch elsewhere or sit tight. Cause real concern in the markets and they'll sell, and that's not good. 

It's just my view - I'm just a pencil neck who spends other peoples' money in what are admittedly quite specialist markets . Like all these things, there's plenty of other views, and who's to say who's right.  

You're only grumpy because Big Brother's ended :P 

Apparently it is. Trump's approval rating is much lower amongst young adults than in the rest of the population.

https://www.vox.com/2018/3/31/17184324/poll-donald-trump-approval-young-peo...