UKC

Several pieces of positive vaccine news.

However, I see the antivax f*cknuts are gathering their forces. I do hope there aren't any major unforseen side effects to any covid vaccine. Otherwise it could give antivaxxers sufficient ammunition to produce a worse outcome with many diseases.

It gives you mild flu symptoms (as is to be expected as it's a modified cold virus), I'm sure that will be enough for the nutjobs to see it as some Bill Gates-led conspiracy to infect everyone with COVID, or somesuch.

Already seen that on Twitter. How do these people manage life?

Goodness knows.

Well, when it comes out we can have it and they can be Darwinned.

(Shame for those who medically can't, though )

It’s very worrying.

we are likely going to get a fairly effective vaccine of 60-70% efficacy. We need good uptake.

I was surprised to read that a recent survey in the UK suggested that about a quarter of respondents would refuse any Covid vaccine if/ when one is available. I was surprised with the figure, given how immediate and obvious the disease is. I could understand better if people were refusing a vaccine against something like polio that most people have no experience of.

But you are more likely to kill someone else by getting infected when you could have been vaccinated, than you are if being killed yourself. Most anti people will survive getting it too, so the stupidity won't even die with them.

Best way to deal with them is engage and explain.

Have you tried? 
 

anti-vaxxers are about as rabid as they come. Totally immune to science. Anyone who has changed their mind is bought by big pharma..

ive a meeting with my head teacher tomorrow. I want the school to really push the vaccine. Create a bubble. No religious exemptions. 

Here I’d be amazed and happy if it was 25%, I think 33% at a minimum. Probably nearer 50%. I know teachers who are refusing it they say.

Most of us have no direct personal experience of Covid either, so it's quite easy for an individual to believe it's no worse than the flu really, it's just the oldies/fatties/etc. who are affected by it etc. -  let alone those who are choosing to believe it's a hoax instigated by Bill Gates, that it's caused by 5g or some other outlandish bollocks.

Generally good news, but lets not forget Thalidomide - there has to be due process...

In the US I’ve been sent Abusive messages For 1) vaccinating my kids. A friends wife called me a murderer.

2) being a sheep for thinking polio was eradicated. 
 

there are very very few documented serious side affects of vaccines. And we’ve numerous documented examples of killer diseases now controlled by vaccines yet uptake will be between 50 and 60% I think.

The anti-vax movement is mainstream now. I think it crept up on us!

That's very different. We've moved on a lot since then.

The Oxford vaccine is a sub unit vaccine, it just recognizes the spike proteins. 

The mRNA vaccine moderna are developing is more new technology and our first mRNA vaccine. But I think they'll become more widespread. But we've 23 vaccines in development. Ideally we'll get 3-5 out in widespread use and then if one fails we don't have all eggs in one basket.

whats the time frame on these vaccines being widely available for the general public? Any idea? This year or is that too ambitious?

Sure, I was just saying there needs to be a balance in terms of rushing it through.

In terms of moving on a lot, am I the only one who sees the b/w photos of cloth covered faces from 1918, and wonder how in the modern world, with over 100 years of research, and all the modern technology in the world, we are being asked to ... cover our faces with a piece of cloth. It seems kind of pathetic, but then I guess the chickens are coming home to roost in terms of the readiness of governments to deal with the situation.

I think the Covid vaccine discussion is in danger of becoming a bit simplistic by turning it into 'rational people' against 'antivax nutjobs'.

This is not a 'standard vaccine' it is a rush developed vaccine against a not-completely-understood new disease.   You do not have to be an anti-vax nutjob to be concerned about its safety and consider carefully the risks of taking it against the potential benefits.  Potential benefits because we will be asked to take it before there is medium to long term data to get an understanding of how long lasting the immune response will be or how fast the virus will mutate and render it useless.

The 'public health' response has been effective in getting to tiny numbers of case.  The risk is already at acceptable levels in many countries.  That makes the risk/reward of injecting tens of millions of healthy people with a rush developed vaccine less clear cut.

That was my point. If there are side effects with a Covid vaccine, it will potentially mean anti vaccers will point to it to discredit all vaccines. It better not go wrong...

I think healthcare workers may get them this year, they'll probably form part of the 3rd phase late this year. Then role it out Spring 2021. But it will take a long time to roll out. Healthcare workers, over 65's, at risk groups, and through schools.

It has been done fast but it is also building on the work of other vaccines.

And most major technologies are developed in times of need. "Necessity is the mother of invention".

Had SARS not gone away we'd have had that vaccine out but all worked stopped when it just moved away. But we are now building on that work.

Re side affects. There will be side affects.  "..caused side effects, including fever, headaches, muscle aches, and injection site reactions, in about 60% of patients. All of the side effects were deemed mild or moderate, and all resolved themselves over the course of the study."

That was 1000 people. Nothing major. All resolved. And we know it's causing an immune reaction.

In comparison in the US Covid has already killed 4 out of 10,000 people in the population. In the UK it's 7 out of 10,000. 

"The 'public health' response has been effective in getting to tiny numbers of case.  The risk is already at acceptable levels in many countries.  That makes the risk/reward of injecting tens of millions of healthy people with a rush developed vaccine less clear cut."

This just is not true.

In only a few countries has normality resumed. In most it is bubbling away and will flare up again. Very few countries have suppressed it enough. Globally its 5000 deaths a day still and 200,000 new cases a day. As travel resumes it will come back.

Well the main thing is still be outside and distanced. That was something we got wrong this time.

Once we're outside the risk of transmission is massively reduced. Even all the BLM marches are connected to few outbreaks but then the MAGA indoor rallys did cause outbreaks.

We should be looking at schooling outside, some are, most aren't.

While the books go soggy and papers blow away! Scottish outdoor schooling!

Yes, it would be great to better utilise outdoor education, but maybe not schooling in this part of the world! There has been talk of schools better utilising outdoor education opportunities, and I really hope they do. Would probably benefit kids for whom school doesn't really work, helps reduce virus spread and hopefully helps build an appreciation of and desire to protect the environment. 

What do you propose as a realistic alternative?  Close Scotland's borders permanently?

(It hasn't reached acceptable levels in England and it clearly isn't going to - the present level of measures appear to be keeping new cases roughly constant)

No.  There's no need for that.  But I'm not rushing to get injected with an experimental Covid vaccine when there's less than 10 new cases per day in Scotland and I work from home.

I'd take an experimental vaccine if there was an actual immediate serious risk.  The way things are at the moment I'm happy to sit it out for a while.

The reason for the long development and testing process for new vaccines is because there were some pretty serious problems with new vaccines in the past.  I don't see any need to rush to be first in the queue to try it.  If I lived in the US or Brazil  I might well feel differently.

Why do you think that? Flu vaccines are administered to huge numbers every year.

The manufacturing facilities are there, they have the supply chain but also most don’t get it.

in the US about 45% of the population get it. Of those who need it, at risk, it’s about 66-75%.
 

As someone who is still, and maybe for ever,  suffering from the adverse side effects of a  commonly prescribed antibiotic, I'm only too aware of the risks of medicine but in so many areas of life these days people embrace and trust technology so completely that the distrust of any Covid vaccine by such a big percentage seemed odd to me. I might have expected more people to welcome any potential research breakthrough as a salvation.

But presumably for that to work social distancing will need to stay much longer?

Your 2 posts are excellent. Thank you.

Outdoor schooling happens around the world. In areas as wet as Scotland. They just use open sided pavilions. Forest schools of Scandinavia.

theres one near me which is open 12 months a year and our winters are far worse.

we’ll certainly see a growth in them.

i had a meeting with our new head today and she wanted every class as possible outside, without masks.

Schooling implies sitting at desks with books and paper in my mind. Our level of wind would make that impossible even with a pavilion style structure. 

Forest schools and outdoor ed, however, should definitely be maximised

That Andrew Wakefield has a lot to answer for.

Glad you won't be giving my kids un proven ( mild virus ! )  

Need to take that chip of your shoulder,  everything you know is based on what exactly ??  The changing science ?¿

Erm, isn't it you with a chip on your shoulder.

You will give them either a subunit of the vaccine or mRNA (at the moment those are the two leaders).

I'm hoping we don't let kids who's parents opt not to vaccinate into school. We're a private school so can do that.

Everything we know is based on science, like you communicating on the internet.

He's seen as a hero here by many. They ignore his paper was retracted.

It would be more practical to install ventilation in classrooms to ensure sufficient air movement to disperse virus and LED lights with a spectrum with more UV so as to get the anti-viral properties of outdoors in a controlled indoor environment.

https://www.friendsofoutdoorschool.org/what-is-outdoor-school

It's not though, it's about being outside.

They did it last time. But its not just about COVID, being outside surrounded by trees has massive benefits.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/17/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc-schools-reopeni...

Here's some links pertaining to Scotland. 

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2018/apr/02/forest-schools-grow-in-sc...

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/may/10/scotland-eyes-outdoor-learn...

Schools in Denmark and Norway have been open for several weeks, if not months, with full classes, indoors, and neither country has seen a spike in cases. I don't think that schools are going to be the problem, it's the multi family occupied houses, inadequate safety procedures in some factories and warehouses and pubs and clubs, as South Korea has found.