In reply to ice.solo:
> (In reply to MikeTS)
> [...]
>
> theres 'do nothing' as in ignore it all, and theres 'do nothing' as in waiting.
> and whilst elements are waited for, theres plenty of options that dont infringe on syrias territorial demarcations .....
agreed
> if their are elements within the assad regime that can be worked with it may reduce costs on the ground,
I don't see that these exist: Assad and his people have boxed themselves in. Turkey was the best option as an intermediary, but now they are too pissed off.
> for a start, stop assuming i am anti-US/UK on this
OK, sorry. So I generalised: anti US is a pretty automatic reaction in UKC political debates.
> what do i propose? something not dissimilar to whats actually going on: a huge amount of fact-finding and confidence building combined with surgical applications of assistance to whatever group is needed to avoid a power vacuum that will only cause more casualties.
This sounds like supporting the rebels?
> assads regime pushed too far into the red will only lead to more massacres as they use national armaments to fight their way out of the hole ......
Again, I think that Assad is past the point of no return. If he's given a get out of jail card, then there are still plenty of Alawites and others who can only see violence as their best option. Also, this means giving them a free pass, when the prevailing western position seems to be to bring them to court for crimes. Possibly western support for an Alawite mini-state?
> in black and white world, these groups are govt - in reality they are vital windows of opportunity stuck between a rock and a hard place.
??? don't seem them open now?
> there is nothing more atrocious than a withdrawing dictatorship.
Agreed
>
> id also put a lot of effort into securing alliances within the rebel groups,
Definitely.
> to help the syrian people? id do pretty much the world is doing, helping them to help themselves
Do more, esp for refugees
> id also be working heavily with the refugee and expat populations in neighbouring countries - mostly iran.
I don't see Iran in this light
with iran now at a tipping point i think so - 8 years ago we were so, so close (i was there).
Interesting. In a way Syria and Iran are the same problem: unpopular regimes that are hard to work with, change or effect replacement to a more liberal position.
> basically id avoid a vacuum with the regime, but create one within the rebels. id endeavour to take down the assad element, but not the govt structure
This requires a lot of work. I can't really see how it could be done, although admirable
>
> id be looking well into the future
Of course. But all the futures to me look more like Lebanon: communities in perpetual conflict.
Redrawing the map - including Lebanon - (like post-Yugoslavia) would be interesting. Create smaller countries based upon religious/cultural bonds? (Druse, Shiite, Sunni, Alawite etc). But that option probably went a long time ago when the French drew the lines on the map.
In truth, I think outside parties can do very little except for palliative care. Since Assad is going down, then it should be accelerated to ease the pain. And the West should be building as many bridges to the rebels as possible.