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with voting underway, what are your punts?
I'm forecasting two narrow Labour wins, both with reduced majorities.
Yours?
I'm forecasting two narrow Labour wins, both with reduced majorities.
Yours?
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In reply to Big Ger:
Copeland is odds on Tory gain. Labour will lose that seat but narrowly hold Stoke. Tories will push ukip and labour close in Stoke as well, something that would be utterly crazy to think 15years ago.
Copeland is odds on Tory gain. Labour will lose that seat but narrowly hold Stoke. Tories will push ukip and labour close in Stoke as well, something that would be utterly crazy to think 15years ago.
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In reply to Big Ger:
Copeland - Tory-- too many jobs at stake for them to vote any other way.
Stoke - no idea- to close to call even though its a coule of miles from where I work so should know.
Copeland - Tory-- too many jobs at stake for them to vote any other way.
Stoke - no idea- to close to call even though its a coule of miles from where I work so should know.
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In reply to Big Ger:
I hope so. That way Labour will retain Corbyn as leader and further scupper their chances in 2020
> with voting underway, what are your punts?I'm forecasting two narrow Labour wins, both with reduced majorities.Yours?
I hope so. That way Labour will retain Corbyn as leader and further scupper their chances in 2020
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In reply to Big Ger:
> The Conservatives have won the Copeland by-election - beating Labour in a seat it has held since its creation. Conservative Trudy Harrison won with 13,748 votes to Labour Gill Troughton's 11,601.
> Labour held Stoke-on-Trent Central, seeing off a challenge from UKIP leader Paul Nuttall. Gareth Snell was elected with 7,853 votes, ahead of UKIP's 5,233 votes.
> Labour's share of the vote was 37% - slightly down on the 39.3% it got in 2015.
Post edited at 03:36
In reply to Big Ger:
Losing Copeland could be a fatal blow to Corbyn.
Glad to see Labour hold Stoke because the alternative of the odious Nuttall winning would have been unbearable.
The government become the first since 1982 to gain a seat in a by election and the best result by a governing party since 1966 with a 6% swing.
Losing Copeland could be a fatal blow to Corbyn.
Glad to see Labour hold Stoke because the alternative of the odious Nuttall winning would have been unbearable.
The government become the first since 1982 to gain a seat in a by election and the best result by a governing party since 1966 with a 6% swing.
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In reply to Big Ger:
To the 13,748 of Copeland - F*ck you.
To the 5.233 of Stoke on Trent - F*ck you too.
To the 13,748 of Copeland - F*ck you.
To the 5.233 of Stoke on Trent - F*ck you too.
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In reply to Hugh J:
I'm sure that 21,601 people are now ridden with guilt after your comments, and will now loyally vote Labour next time...
Why not a f*ck you for a Labour party that somehow managed to lose to the Tories in Copeland?
I'm sure that 21,601 people are now ridden with guilt after your comments, and will now loyally vote Labour next time...
Why not a f*ck you for a Labour party that somehow managed to lose to the Tories in Copeland?
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In reply to Hugh J:
And you and every other labour voter
> To the 13,748 of Copeland - F*ck you.To the 5.233 of Stoke on Trent - F*ck you too.
And you and every other labour voter
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In reply to Big Ger:
I see Corbyn has chosen this morning of all days to deliver a speech on Brexit.!
I see Corbyn has chosen this morning of all days to deliver a speech on Brexit.!
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In reply to Hugh J:
The only post of yours I've ever been tempted to 'dislike', Hugh.
Have a cup of tea.
The only post of yours I've ever been tempted to 'dislike', Hugh.
Have a cup of tea.
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In reply to Big Ger:
I thought it was fairly obvious Copeland was going blue, although with the nuclear power plant is difficult to really take anything away from the result. Strange that everyone's suddenly so surprised by it.
Stoke is a more interesting seat though, and is quite representative of the wider Labour grassroots vs UKIP battle. Glad Labour won this one, Nuttall is vile.
I thought it was fairly obvious Copeland was going blue, although with the nuclear power plant is difficult to really take anything away from the result. Strange that everyone's suddenly so surprised by it.
Stoke is a more interesting seat though, and is quite representative of the wider Labour grassroots vs UKIP battle. Glad Labour won this one, Nuttall is vile.
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In reply to Hugh J:
That's your Gordon Brown moment!
> To the 13,748 of Copeland - F*ck you.To the 5.233 of Stoke on Trent - F*ck you too.
That's your Gordon Brown moment!
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In reply to JayK:
1st correct reply, and spot-on prediction. You should be one of them pundits we can follow.
> Copeland is odds on Tory gain. Labour will lose that seat but narrowly hold Stoke. Tories will push ukip and labour close in Stoke as well, something that would be utterly crazy to think 15years ago.
1st correct reply, and spot-on prediction. You should be one of them pundits we can follow.
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In reply to RyanOsborne:
Copeland has been Labour for 80 years. It used to be the sort of place, (like Normanton), where you could stick a red rosette on Peppa Pig and she'd win the seat. The nuclear issue is a factor, but there are huge swathes of West Cumbria where there's high unemployment which should be fertile ground for Labour. A lot of the population resent the nuclear workforce, as there's a perception that it's a closed shop where only family members get in. Sellafield itself is in the middle of a dispute over terms and conditions and pensions, with the current government pushing the changes. It's nowhere near as clear cut as 'nuclear workers vote conservative'.
> I thought it was fairly obvious Copeland was going blue, although with the nuclear power plant is difficult to really take anything away from the result. Strange that everyone's suddenly so surprised by it.
Copeland has been Labour for 80 years. It used to be the sort of place, (like Normanton), where you could stick a red rosette on Peppa Pig and she'd win the seat. The nuclear issue is a factor, but there are huge swathes of West Cumbria where there's high unemployment which should be fertile ground for Labour. A lot of the population resent the nuclear workforce, as there's a perception that it's a closed shop where only family members get in. Sellafield itself is in the middle of a dispute over terms and conditions and pensions, with the current government pushing the changes. It's nowhere near as clear cut as 'nuclear workers vote conservative'.
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In reply to RyanOsborne:
Oh dear. The nuclear power plant has been there for over 50 years. Corbyn for less than 2. There's the explanation. By all means reach your own conclusions but it might be sensible not to imagine anyone else is convinced otherwise.
I agree with you on Stoke. Firstly that UKIP is a big threat to Labour and secondly that Nuttall is vile. For which you should be grateful as he might have won with a less catastrophic campaign.
> I thought it was fairly obvious Copeland was going blue, although with the nuclear power plant is difficult to really take anything away from the result. Strange that everyone's suddenly so surprised by it.Stoke is a more interesting seat though, and is quite representative of the wider Labour grassroots vs UKIP battle. Glad Labour won this one, Nuttall is vile.
Oh dear. The nuclear power plant has been there for over 50 years. Corbyn for less than 2. There's the explanation. By all means reach your own conclusions but it might be sensible not to imagine anyone else is convinced otherwise.
I agree with you on Stoke. Firstly that UKIP is a big threat to Labour and secondly that Nuttall is vile. For which you should be grateful as he might have won with a less catastrophic campaign.
Post edited at 09:23
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In reply to High J - your response sadly is the exact reason that as a traditional labour voter voting Labour is inconceivable
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In reply to Gone for good:
Please let this be true. Sadly the Corbynistas seem even more delusional than usual in trying to paint this as anything other than a disaster for Labour
> Losing Copeland could be a fatal blow to Corbyn.
Please let this be true. Sadly the Corbynistas seem even more delusional than usual in trying to paint this as anything other than a disaster for Labour
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In reply to cragtaff:
Why 'thank goodness'? The only way for our democracy to work is for there to be a credible opposition capable of balancing the actions of the party in power, be they Labour, Conservative or whatever.
> Under Corbyn Labour is pretty much unelectable, thank goodness.
Why 'thank goodness'? The only way for our democracy to work is for there to be a credible opposition capable of balancing the actions of the party in power, be they Labour, Conservative or whatever.
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In reply to BnB:
Depends if he's referring to the new build at Moorside or Sellafield, which is reprocessing and decommisioning site, it hasn't been a power plant since 2003.
Thinking about it a bit more, Keswick and Cockermouth are now part of Copeland. They're both predominantly affluent communities and not natural Labour areas. That said the NHS hospitals are being comprehensively wrecked in West Cumbria, so there should have been far more support for Labour than there was.
> Oh dear. The nuclear power plant has been there for over 50 years. Corbyn for less than 2. There's the explanation. By all means reach your own conclusions but it might be sensible not to imagine anyone else is convinced otherwise.I agree with you on Stoke.
Depends if he's referring to the new build at Moorside or Sellafield, which is reprocessing and decommisioning site, it hasn't been a power plant since 2003.
Thinking about it a bit more, Keswick and Cockermouth are now part of Copeland. They're both predominantly affluent communities and not natural Labour areas. That said the NHS hospitals are being comprehensively wrecked in West Cumbria, so there should have been far more support for Labour than there was.
Post edited at 10:21
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In reply to JayK:
Well done! Nice forecast.
Now, what about the next General Election?
Currently Con 330, an absolute majority of 10 (thus ignoring NI & co.)
Assuming no boundary changes (is this correct?) I predict a Tory majority of 24 on the same terms.
(most would, I guess, put the number far higher).
Labour's problem is that the hapless Corbyn is symptomatic of their ills, with no clear messiah in sight even were he to go. He, and they, are stuck with the long haul.
Well done! Nice forecast.
Now, what about the next General Election?
Currently Con 330, an absolute majority of 10 (thus ignoring NI & co.)
Assuming no boundary changes (is this correct?) I predict a Tory majority of 24 on the same terms.
(most would, I guess, put the number far higher).
Labour's problem is that the hapless Corbyn is symptomatic of their ills, with no clear messiah in sight even were he to go. He, and they, are stuck with the long haul.
In reply to BnB:
Indeed, given the terrible, largely self inflicted bad publicity Nuttall got in the last couple of weeks its probably more accurate to say UKIP lost Stoke rather than Labour won it. At this stage in the election cycle Labour should be walking away with a hugely increased majority in places like this.
> I agree with you on Stoke. Firstly that UKIP is a big threat to Labour and secondly that Nuttall is vile. For which you should be grateful as he might have won with a less catastrophic campaign. >
Indeed, given the terrible, largely self inflicted bad publicity Nuttall got in the last couple of weeks its probably more accurate to say UKIP lost Stoke rather than Labour won it. At this stage in the election cycle Labour should be walking away with a hugely increased majority in places like this.
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In reply to Jim Nevill:
I think the tory majority will be much higher than that.
Regardless of who the Labour leader is, the labour party is torn between the different support bases.
I don't think any leader of the labour party could reunite all of those disparate groups of voters to bring the tory vote down to under the amount they'd require for a majority.
Those who bang on about how 'terrible' Corbyn is for the labour party are completely missing the point.
As the UK population moves towards being more individualistic, and less communal, the right will only get stronger... Sadly.
I think the tory majority will be much higher than that.
Regardless of who the Labour leader is, the labour party is torn between the different support bases.
I don't think any leader of the labour party could reunite all of those disparate groups of voters to bring the tory vote down to under the amount they'd require for a majority.
Those who bang on about how 'terrible' Corbyn is for the labour party are completely missing the point.
As the UK population moves towards being more individualistic, and less communal, the right will only get stronger... Sadly.
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In reply to Jim Nevill:
I agree. The lib dems will likely pull back a few tory seats but I'm expecting a hemorrhage in 2020 due to the labour party moving so far to the left. Things can change though.. by 2020 the reality of brexit and the current NHS plans will be biting hard and austerity will be further crippling a social care system already in crisis, whilst schools, prisons, policing, council services will be a mess (I think people are just unaware how things like the extra pension costs phasing in will hit budgets).
On the local NHS issues I doubt very much the new tory MP for Copeland is going to roll over on his local hospital cuts. In influencing government he will ironically probably be able to do more than a labour MP. This is the start of very difficult period for the new local NHS funding arrangements. When local A&E, recovery units and maternity units close who will celebrate this.... the centralised improved service idea is about meeting budget contraints not local needs and so is obviously another big lie to cover the effect of defacto NHS cuts ...and the poorest and otherwise least able to travel suffer most again.
I'm amazed some people here were still predicting a UKIP win in Stoke.. he was lucky to come second and in that the conservative success in Stoke should be worrying labour central office as much as Copeland. Nigel Farage is playing victim on Piers Morgan: apparently the press lie and leave him vulnerable... poor man, the UK press must be way more left wing than I realised.
I agree. The lib dems will likely pull back a few tory seats but I'm expecting a hemorrhage in 2020 due to the labour party moving so far to the left. Things can change though.. by 2020 the reality of brexit and the current NHS plans will be biting hard and austerity will be further crippling a social care system already in crisis, whilst schools, prisons, policing, council services will be a mess (I think people are just unaware how things like the extra pension costs phasing in will hit budgets).
On the local NHS issues I doubt very much the new tory MP for Copeland is going to roll over on his local hospital cuts. In influencing government he will ironically probably be able to do more than a labour MP. This is the start of very difficult period for the new local NHS funding arrangements. When local A&E, recovery units and maternity units close who will celebrate this.... the centralised improved service idea is about meeting budget contraints not local needs and so is obviously another big lie to cover the effect of defacto NHS cuts ...and the poorest and otherwise least able to travel suffer most again.
I'm amazed some people here were still predicting a UKIP win in Stoke.. he was lucky to come second and in that the conservative success in Stoke should be worrying labour central office as much as Copeland. Nigel Farage is playing victim on Piers Morgan: apparently the press lie and leave him vulnerable... poor man, the UK press must be way more left wing than I realised.
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In reply to Hugh J:
And there we have another lovely lefty, with their self proclaimed monopoly on compassion. You'd think they'd be mortified as Labour haemorrhages votes in every direction but they've got their heads so far up their self righteous arses they either can't see it or don't care, the view must be pretty good from the moral high ground.
And to think they have the audacity to call the Tories the nasty party.
> To the 13,748 of Copeland - F*ck you.To the 5.233 of Stoke on Trent - F*ck you too. >
And there we have another lovely lefty, with their self proclaimed monopoly on compassion. You'd think they'd be mortified as Labour haemorrhages votes in every direction but they've got their heads so far up their self righteous arses they either can't see it or don't care, the view must be pretty good from the moral high ground.
And to think they have the audacity to call the Tories the nasty party.
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In reply to RyanOsborne:
Clearly I wasn't paying attention to Copeland, as it should have been safe even with the labour disarray. Mid term by-election, major local NHS issues and the local labour candidate looked OK. Its an amazing win for the tories.
Clearly I wasn't paying attention to Copeland, as it should have been safe even with the labour disarray. Mid term by-election, major local NHS issues and the local labour candidate looked OK. Its an amazing win for the tories.
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In reply to neilh:
Nope, just over the electoral border in Allerdale.
Plenty
> Do you live in Copeland ?
Nope, just over the electoral border in Allerdale.
> Do you know anyone who works at Sellafiekd?
Plenty
Post edited at 12:50
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In reply to Ridge:
Just interested in this assertion that a lot of jobs are related to family connections. That is not what I see with my friends in the nuclear industry. Most come from outside the area with engineering/ science qualifications dropping from them do to speak.
Just interested in this assertion that a lot of jobs are related to family connections. That is not what I see with my friends in the nuclear industry. Most come from outside the area with engineering/ science qualifications dropping from them do to speak.
In reply to JayK:
You wouldn't like to pass me the next winning lottery numbers would you
> Copeland is odds on Tory gain. Labour will lose that seat but narrowly hold Stoke. Tories will push ukip and labour close in Stoke as well, something that would be utterly crazy to think 15years ago.
You wouldn't like to pass me the next winning lottery numbers would you
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In reply to Ridge:
Keswick is in copeland. Cockermouth still in the Workington constituency.
I agree though that the redrawing of the boundaries may have had an effect. If I remember correctly, it was said it would disadvantage some Labour strongholds.
Just checked though - it was changed before the last election so maybe not.
Keswick is in copeland. Cockermouth still in the Workington constituency.
I agree though that the redrawing of the boundaries may have had an effect. If I remember correctly, it was said it would disadvantage some Labour strongholds.
Just checked though - it was changed before the last election so maybe not.
Post edited at 16:44
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In reply to Offwidth:
The depressing thing is there has already been plenty to attack the govt on, and some of it they are entirely to blame for, but so far the opposition has not landed a glove on them. It's inconceivable that junior doctors have been moved to go on strike and yet the govt has walked away from that skirmish unscathed. When things turn so bad that people are forced away from the Tories, who will the turn to?
> Things can change though.. by 2020 the reality of brexit and the current NHS plans will be biting hard and austerity will be further crippling a social care system already in crisis, whilst schools, prisons, policing, council services will be a mess (I think people are just unaware how things like the extra pension costs phasing in will hit budgets).
The depressing thing is there has already been plenty to attack the govt on, and some of it they are entirely to blame for, but so far the opposition has not landed a glove on them. It's inconceivable that junior doctors have been moved to go on strike and yet the govt has walked away from that skirmish unscathed. When things turn so bad that people are forced away from the Tories, who will the turn to?
In reply to neilh:
It's certainly a perception by some of the population. I'm from the outside of the area and work in the industry, so clearly that's not the case.
However there's certainly a climate of cronyism / nepotism when it comes to internal vacancies or promotion. It varies a lot, the engineering and scientific sides not too bad, but there have been some very dubious practices in some departments.
> Just interested in this assertion that a lot of jobs are related to family connections. That is not what I see with my friends in the nuclear industry. Most come from outside the area with engineering/ science qualifications dropping from them do to speak.
It's certainly a perception by some of the population. I'm from the outside of the area and work in the industry, so clearly that's not the case.
However there's certainly a climate of cronyism / nepotism when it comes to internal vacancies or promotion. It varies a lot, the engineering and scientific sides not too bad, but there have been some very dubious practices in some departments.
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In reply to pec:
You and others on this thread are under the mistaken impression that I am a lefty Labour supporter. I voted Labour at the last election purely because of the candidate. I am far more centrist and if anything slightly to the right, but yes I do believe in compassion for my fellow citizens, unlike the Tories and UKIP you have sold this country a pig in a poke for their own ideology and their own kind, but there are many are too stupid to realise it or too ashamed to admit it.
But being centrist, I know I'm now open to the criticism from both sides of the schismatic society we live in. So be it.
> And there we have another lovely lefty, with their self proclaimed monopoly on compassion. You'd think they'd be mortified as Labour haemorrhages votes in every direction but they've got their heads so far up their self righteous arses they either can't see it or don't care, the view must be pretty good from the moral high ground.And to think they have the audacity to call the Tories the nasty party.
You and others on this thread are under the mistaken impression that I am a lefty Labour supporter. I voted Labour at the last election purely because of the candidate. I am far more centrist and if anything slightly to the right, but yes I do believe in compassion for my fellow citizens, unlike the Tories and UKIP you have sold this country a pig in a poke for their own ideology and their own kind, but there are many are too stupid to realise it or too ashamed to admit it.
But being centrist, I know I'm now open to the criticism from both sides of the schismatic society we live in. So be it.
Post edited at 21:32
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In reply to Big Ger:
The Graun has always been a bit anti-Corbyn, though I think they are right on this.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/24/jeremy-corbyn-warned-not-t...
The Graun has always been a bit anti-Corbyn, though I think they are right on this.
> Jeremy Corbyn has come under intense pressure to take some personal responsibility for Labour’s historic byelection defeat in Copeland from senior party figures, including trade union leaders and even members of his own shadow cabinet. The Labour leader was urged not to “pass the buck” or sugarcoat the result after Theresa May’s Conservatives secured the first byelection gain by a government since 1982, in a Cumbrian seat that had been held by his party since 1935.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/24/jeremy-corbyn-warned-not-t...
In reply to Big Ger:
Genuinely curious, why on earth are people still voting conservative? Austerity, food banks, massive cuts, privatisation of services, polishing the balls of that c***t in the white house, brexit charlie foxtrot, overt hatred of everyone who isn't fabulously wealthy. In all seriousness what can a normal, working class person see in the Conservative party and think, "yep, more of the same please". I'd vote for a man whose sole campaign promise was to visit my house and punch me in the balls on a daily basis over that shower of objectively evil bastards.
Genuinely curious, why on earth are people still voting conservative? Austerity, food banks, massive cuts, privatisation of services, polishing the balls of that c***t in the white house, brexit charlie foxtrot, overt hatred of everyone who isn't fabulously wealthy. In all seriousness what can a normal, working class person see in the Conservative party and think, "yep, more of the same please". I'd vote for a man whose sole campaign promise was to visit my house and punch me in the balls on a daily basis over that shower of objectively evil bastards.
Post edited at 23:49
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In reply to TomGB:
Because to not do so would mean we'd swallowed the utter bullshine you've posted there.
Maybe it's not what they see in the Conservative party, but what they see in the alternatives.
I'll promise to do that if you vote for me.
> Genuinely curious, why on earth are people still voting conservative? Austerity, food banks, massive cuts, privatisation of services, polishing the balls of that c***t in the white house, brexit charlie foxtrot, overt hatred of everyone who isn't fabulously wealthy.
Because to not do so would mean we'd swallowed the utter bullshine you've posted there.
> In all seriousness what can a normal, working class person see in the Conservative party and think, "yep, more of the same please".
Maybe it's not what they see in the Conservative party, but what they see in the alternatives.
> I'd vote for a man whose sole campaign promise was to visit my house and punch me in the balls on a daily basis over that shower of objectively evil bastards.
I'll promise to do that if you vote for me.
Post edited at 00:04
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In reply to Big Ger:
Well obviously I was a bit pissed when I wrote that. Thought about editing/deleting it but I stand by the gist so I'll leave it there.
Don't agree that it's bullshine (never heard that one before), I think this government is cruel and stupid and has delivered a much poorer quality of life to vast swathes of the populace. However, no one has ever changed someone's opinion on the Internet so let's leave that one there.
>Maybe it's not what they see in the Conservative party, but what they see in the alternatives.
I hear this a lot and I don't buy it. When you've got a gov't like we've got you don't wait until some perfect alternative comes along, you vote for any bloody alternative available because it cannot possibly be worse. I'd take vaguely incompetent but seemingly not a bastard (TBC) Corbyn any day.
>I'll promise to do that if you vote for me.
Birmingham Hall Green, I shall look for your name on the ballot paper! I'm a bit stumped actually, obviously not voting tory and I can't vote Labour because the local MP is a tw*t
Well obviously I was a bit pissed when I wrote that. Thought about editing/deleting it but I stand by the gist so I'll leave it there.
> Because to not do so would mean we'd swallowed the utter bullshine you've posted there.
Don't agree that it's bullshine (never heard that one before), I think this government is cruel and stupid and has delivered a much poorer quality of life to vast swathes of the populace. However, no one has ever changed someone's opinion on the Internet so let's leave that one there.
>Maybe it's not what they see in the Conservative party, but what they see in the alternatives.
I hear this a lot and I don't buy it. When you've got a gov't like we've got you don't wait until some perfect alternative comes along, you vote for any bloody alternative available because it cannot possibly be worse. I'd take vaguely incompetent but seemingly not a bastard (TBC) Corbyn any day.
>I'll promise to do that if you vote for me.
Birmingham Hall Green, I shall look for your name on the ballot paper! I'm a bit stumped actually, obviously not voting tory and I can't vote Labour because the local MP is a tw*t
Post edited at 08:22
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In reply to TomGB:
Admirably decent of you.
You think a government is "cruel and stupid"? That's a bit silly isn't it? Have you not checked their educational achievements, you'll find that they are far higher than the oppositions. Do you not think that they could be reasonable and and honest, but just have a different perspective on the right way to manage a country?
Wrong again I'm afraid, it can be far worse. See "the winter of discontent" for details.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_Discontent
Cheers mate, I'll be standing on an; "independent, middle-ground, very nice chap" ticket.
> Well obviously I was a bit pissed when I wrote that. Thought about editing/deleting it but I stand by the gist so I'll leave it there.
Admirably decent of you.
> I think this government is cruel and stupid and has delivered a much poorer quality of life to vast swathes of the populace.
You think a government is "cruel and stupid"? That's a bit silly isn't it? Have you not checked their educational achievements, you'll find that they are far higher than the oppositions. Do you not think that they could be reasonable and and honest, but just have a different perspective on the right way to manage a country?
> Maybe it's not what they see in the Conservative party, but what they see in the alternatives.I hear this a lot and I don't buy it. When you've got a gov't like we've got you don't wait until some perfect alternative comes along, you vote for any bloody alternative available because it cannot possibly be worse.
Wrong again I'm afraid, it can be far worse. See "the winter of discontent" for details.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_Discontent
> I'll promise to do that if you vote for me.Birmingham Hall Green, I shall look for your name on the ballot paper! I'm a bit stumped actually, obviously not voting tory and I can't vote Labour because the local MP is a tw*t
Cheers mate, I'll be standing on an; "independent, middle-ground, very nice chap" ticket.
Post edited at 22:33
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In reply to Big Ger:
Cheers mate, I'll be standing on an; "independent, middle-ground, very nice chap" ticket.
Two out of three true facts is pretty good for a politician...
Cheers mate, I'll be standing on an; "independent, middle-ground, very nice chap" ticket.
Two out of three true facts is pretty good for a politician...
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In reply to FactorXXX:
Got me there, I'll change it to an; "independent, centre-right, very nice chap" ticket.
> Two out of three true facts is pretty good for a politician...
Got me there, I'll change it to an; "independent, centre-right, very nice chap" ticket.
Post edited at 00:24
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In reply to Big Ger:
Honestly no. I've had the misfortune to be unemployed for a few months (hopefully soon rectified) so have been claiming universal credit (which is a ballache and the amount you receive pitiful). I find the huge cuts to the benefits system nothing short of a barbarous attack on the poor, disabled and needy. In recent years hundreds of people have died of starvation, hundreds of thousands are using food banks as they cannot afford to live and millions are in 'food poverty'. Thousands of sick and disabled people have had their conditions worsened by the constant checks by unqualified staff to determine their fitness to work and there are several stories of terminally ill people told they are having their benefits cut and need to find a job (I realise this is anecdotal)
Additionally, the NHS has been described recently by the Red Cross as being in a 'humanitarian crisis' due to cuts, meaning that these poor, sick and needy people have less money and less access to the health services they require.
To have all this going on at the same time as delivering tax breaks to large corporations and wealthy individuals I find cruel. I cannot regard it as simply a 'different view on how to run the country' and I don't see it as reasonable.
Obviously, there are lots of working class people with a different opinion to me as they keep voting for the buggers! If anyone can tell me what they like about the Conservatives I'm certainly willing to listen.
> You think a government is "cruel and stupid"? That's a bit silly isn't it? Have you not checked their educational achievements, you'll find that they are far higher than the oppositions. Do you not think that they could be reasonable and and honest, but just have a different perspective on the right way to manage a country?
Honestly no. I've had the misfortune to be unemployed for a few months (hopefully soon rectified) so have been claiming universal credit (which is a ballache and the amount you receive pitiful). I find the huge cuts to the benefits system nothing short of a barbarous attack on the poor, disabled and needy. In recent years hundreds of people have died of starvation, hundreds of thousands are using food banks as they cannot afford to live and millions are in 'food poverty'. Thousands of sick and disabled people have had their conditions worsened by the constant checks by unqualified staff to determine their fitness to work and there are several stories of terminally ill people told they are having their benefits cut and need to find a job (I realise this is anecdotal)
Additionally, the NHS has been described recently by the Red Cross as being in a 'humanitarian crisis' due to cuts, meaning that these poor, sick and needy people have less money and less access to the health services they require.
To have all this going on at the same time as delivering tax breaks to large corporations and wealthy individuals I find cruel. I cannot regard it as simply a 'different view on how to run the country' and I don't see it as reasonable.
Obviously, there are lots of working class people with a different opinion to me as they keep voting for the buggers! If anyone can tell me what they like about the Conservatives I'm certainly willing to listen.
Post edited at 09:38
3
1
In reply to TomGB:
Well I'm of very working class origins, and I'd rather vote for a party who would at least try to keep the country solvent, so as to pay for the health care and other safety nets we need, rather than one which would spend, spend spend taxpayers money, like a shore leave drunk sailor in a whorehouse, until the cash runs out.
> Obviously, there are lots of working class people with a different opinion to me as they keep voting for the buggers! If anyone can tell me what they like about the Conservatives I'm certainly willing to listen.
Well I'm of very working class origins, and I'd rather vote for a party who would at least try to keep the country solvent, so as to pay for the health care and other safety nets we need, rather than one which would spend, spend spend taxpayers money, like a shore leave drunk sailor in a whorehouse, until the cash runs out.
3
3
In reply to Big Ger:
Perhaps of more significance in the general sense is that in Stoke-on-Trent with a population of around 240,643 Gareth got in on 7,853 votes.
A 38% turn out compared with a 65% turn out for Brexit
Perhaps of more significance in the general sense is that in Stoke-on-Trent with a population of around 240,643 Gareth got in on 7,853 votes.
A 38% turn out compared with a 65% turn out for Brexit
Post edited at 07:48
In reply to Hugh J:
How can you possibly claim to be centerist, just in human terms alone, nevermind politically, when you dismiss the votes of thousands of people with the disgusting arrogance that you do simply because they voted for a party you don't support?
How can you possibly claim to be compassionate when you dismiss the views of thousands of your fellow human beings, most of whom are perfectly law abiding, tax paying citizens simply because they looked at the incumbent party (in Stoke and Copeland), saw it to be lead by an incompetent idiot not fit to run a parish council nevermind a country and looked to an alternative.
"f*ck you" "too stupid to realise" etc. Your comments are a disgrace, you are an arrogant, pompous arse, bloated by your own sense of self importance. It is the hypocritical rantings of people like you that drag politics into the gutter, preaching compassion whilst spewing bile.
> You and others on this thread are under the mistaken impression that I am a lefty Labour supporter. I voted Labour at the last election purely because of the candidate. I am far more centrist and if anything slightly to the right, but yes I do believe in compassion for my fellow citizens, unlike the Tories and UKIP you have sold this country a pig in a poke for their own ideology and their own kind, but there are many are too stupid to realise it or too ashamed to admit it.But being centrist, I know I'm now open to the criticism from both sides of the schismatic society we live in. So be it. >
How can you possibly claim to be centerist, just in human terms alone, nevermind politically, when you dismiss the votes of thousands of people with the disgusting arrogance that you do simply because they voted for a party you don't support?
How can you possibly claim to be compassionate when you dismiss the views of thousands of your fellow human beings, most of whom are perfectly law abiding, tax paying citizens simply because they looked at the incumbent party (in Stoke and Copeland), saw it to be lead by an incompetent idiot not fit to run a parish council nevermind a country and looked to an alternative.
"f*ck you" "too stupid to realise" etc. Your comments are a disgrace, you are an arrogant, pompous arse, bloated by your own sense of self importance. It is the hypocritical rantings of people like you that drag politics into the gutter, preaching compassion whilst spewing bile.
Post edited at 10:37
5
1
In reply to Offwidth:
"Copeland, ... should have been safe even with the labour disarray. Mid term by-election, major local NHS issues and the local labour candidate looked OK. Its an amazing win for the tories."
Roy Lilley's take on the NHS bit:
"Trudy Harrison, the newly elected Tory MP for Copeland, opposes the proposed changes to NHS services in her patch. Protecting local services; ' One of her key priorities', she said. Cue picture of candidate with ambulance in the back-ground.
The Maymite declined (4 times) to say if she supports the cuts to maternity services. Trudy's been dropped in it before she even starts.
The Labour candidate Gillian Troughton, a St John Ambulance driver and a former hospital doctor, campaigned on a 'babies will die' ticket'.
As far as I can make out, the actual changes proposed are;
*A midwife-led maternity unit for low risk births at the West Cumberland Hospital in Whitehaven, with consultant led services dealing with more complex deliveries;
*Concentrating in-patient children's services in Carlisle, with a short-stay observation unit and some overnight beds in the Whitehaven hospital;
*Concentrating beds in cottage hospitals in Whitehaven (Copeland Unit), Cockermouth, Workington, Penrith, Brampton and Keswick, which would mean closing beds in Wigton, Maryport and Alston.
*Maintaining 24/7 accident and emergency services in Whitehaven and Carlisle, but with the most complex cases taken to Carlisle where there would be more intensive care beds.
The CCGs and STP are trying to circle the wagons, putting the remains of the good stuff in one place and get the Jim Reaper and the Treasury off their backs. The fly in the ointment; travel times. In that neck of the woods there ain't no M25; people don't feel safe if they have to travel and visiting relatives becomes a pain. Unless the CCG get a bung or the STP are bullied into submission I suspect Trudy Harrison will find herself in increasing difficulty as local services are hollowed out.
If Labour are clever they will nail her feet to the NHS. Opposing NHS shuffle-n-cuts, when shuffle-n-cuts is the only game in town, makes it easy to claim a headline but the small print is much more difficult to deliver. Services that are thin, probably inadequately staffed and fall into the margins of 'not-safe' will require managerial courage to fix and political leadership to reassure a sceptical public. Without recurring funding it's difficult to see what else any one can do.
United Lincolnshire Trusts is another interesting example. The prisoners of geography, demography and history, they are struggling to recruit. They made a wise and safe decision to cut back A&E. The Tory dominated County Council have complained to the Tory Tinkerman who is ordering a review led by a Conservative peer. If this looks like blatant system-gerrymandering it's because it probably is. It's like ULHT don't have enough to worry about batting-off the ridiculous CQC with their impossible demands. As STP plans begin to bite how many more Conservatives will by-pass consultation and use the political route? Will the Tinkerman involve himself in protests in Labour constituencies? Once again the NHS is in the middle of political knock about.
Political promises are not covered by the Advertising Standards Authority; you can say what you like. Any one waiting for the £350m a week to be repatriated from the EU budget and injected into the NHS is likely to grow old and die before it happens. Is NHS planning a scaffolding to prop up political careers or a fulcrum point and lever for safe services what work for patients and fit the NHS pound. The Copeland by-election and the disgraceful events at Lincoln sum up the present state of our dirty politics. The way to fix this is to fix health and care funding. Chancellor Hammond has an opportunity to do just that; in his budget in a couple of weeks time.
Politics is a rotten game.
We'll find out just how rotten."
-----------------------
Contact Roy - please use this e-address
roy.lilley@nhsmanagers.net
Know something I don't - email me in confidence.
"Copeland, ... should have been safe even with the labour disarray. Mid term by-election, major local NHS issues and the local labour candidate looked OK. Its an amazing win for the tories."
Roy Lilley's take on the NHS bit:
"Trudy Harrison, the newly elected Tory MP for Copeland, opposes the proposed changes to NHS services in her patch. Protecting local services; ' One of her key priorities', she said. Cue picture of candidate with ambulance in the back-ground.
The Maymite declined (4 times) to say if she supports the cuts to maternity services. Trudy's been dropped in it before she even starts.
The Labour candidate Gillian Troughton, a St John Ambulance driver and a former hospital doctor, campaigned on a 'babies will die' ticket'.
As far as I can make out, the actual changes proposed are;
*A midwife-led maternity unit for low risk births at the West Cumberland Hospital in Whitehaven, with consultant led services dealing with more complex deliveries;
*Concentrating in-patient children's services in Carlisle, with a short-stay observation unit and some overnight beds in the Whitehaven hospital;
*Concentrating beds in cottage hospitals in Whitehaven (Copeland Unit), Cockermouth, Workington, Penrith, Brampton and Keswick, which would mean closing beds in Wigton, Maryport and Alston.
*Maintaining 24/7 accident and emergency services in Whitehaven and Carlisle, but with the most complex cases taken to Carlisle where there would be more intensive care beds.
The CCGs and STP are trying to circle the wagons, putting the remains of the good stuff in one place and get the Jim Reaper and the Treasury off their backs. The fly in the ointment; travel times. In that neck of the woods there ain't no M25; people don't feel safe if they have to travel and visiting relatives becomes a pain. Unless the CCG get a bung or the STP are bullied into submission I suspect Trudy Harrison will find herself in increasing difficulty as local services are hollowed out.
If Labour are clever they will nail her feet to the NHS. Opposing NHS shuffle-n-cuts, when shuffle-n-cuts is the only game in town, makes it easy to claim a headline but the small print is much more difficult to deliver. Services that are thin, probably inadequately staffed and fall into the margins of 'not-safe' will require managerial courage to fix and political leadership to reassure a sceptical public. Without recurring funding it's difficult to see what else any one can do.
United Lincolnshire Trusts is another interesting example. The prisoners of geography, demography and history, they are struggling to recruit. They made a wise and safe decision to cut back A&E. The Tory dominated County Council have complained to the Tory Tinkerman who is ordering a review led by a Conservative peer. If this looks like blatant system-gerrymandering it's because it probably is. It's like ULHT don't have enough to worry about batting-off the ridiculous CQC with their impossible demands. As STP plans begin to bite how many more Conservatives will by-pass consultation and use the political route? Will the Tinkerman involve himself in protests in Labour constituencies? Once again the NHS is in the middle of political knock about.
Political promises are not covered by the Advertising Standards Authority; you can say what you like. Any one waiting for the £350m a week to be repatriated from the EU budget and injected into the NHS is likely to grow old and die before it happens. Is NHS planning a scaffolding to prop up political careers or a fulcrum point and lever for safe services what work for patients and fit the NHS pound. The Copeland by-election and the disgraceful events at Lincoln sum up the present state of our dirty politics. The way to fix this is to fix health and care funding. Chancellor Hammond has an opportunity to do just that; in his budget in a couple of weeks time.
Politics is a rotten game.
We'll find out just how rotten."
-----------------------
Contact Roy - please use this e-address
roy.lilley@nhsmanagers.net
Know something I don't - email me in confidence.
In reply to pec:
Nice slice of hyprocracy there!
> How can you possibly claim to be centerist, just in human terms alone, nevermind politically, when you dismiss the votes of thousands of people with the disgusting arrogance that you do simply because they voted for a party you don't support?
> How can you possibly claim to be compassionate when you dismiss the views of thousands of your fellow human beings, most of whom are perfectly law abiding, tax paying citizens simply because they looked at the incumbent party (in Stoke and Copeland), saw it to be lead by an incompetent idiot not fit to run a parish council nevermind a country and looked to an alternative.
> "f*ck you" "too stupid to realise" etc. Your comments are a disgrace, you are an arrogant, pompous arse, bloated by your own sense of self importance. It is the hypocritical rantings of people like you that drag politics into the gutter, preaching compassion whilst spewing bile.
> How can you possibly claim to be compassionate when you dismiss the views of thousands of your fellow human beings, most of whom are perfectly law abiding, tax paying citizens simply because they looked at the incumbent party (in Stoke and Copeland), saw it to be lead by an incompetent idiot not fit to run a parish council nevermind a country and looked to an alternative.
> "f*ck you" "too stupid to realise" etc. Your comments are a disgrace, you are an arrogant, pompous arse, bloated by your own sense of self importance. It is the hypocritical rantings of people like you that drag politics into the gutter, preaching compassion whilst spewing bile.
Nice slice of hyprocracy there!
1
In reply to pec:
The left and right ideologist are the ones that advocate Brexit. It is centrist like the Lib Dems, moderate Conservatives and Scoialist that are speaking out against what many perceive as a lunatic decision.
You insult the 11,601 of Copeland and the 8,753 of Stoke as much if not more than my statement. Just because I think some people are being blindly arrogant and stupid does not mean I don't feel any compassion for them. Should I accuse you of showing no compassion to the millions of EU workers in this country or the 2 million Brits in the EU who have had their future put in doubt?
"Shut up, dry your eyes mate, you lost, get over it, you lost, you lost, you lost. Ner, ner ner, ner ner!" F*ck you!
> How can you possibly claim to be centerist, just in human terms alone, nevermind politically, when you dismiss the votes of thousands of people with the disgusting arrogance that you do simply because they voted for a party you don't support?
The left and right ideologist are the ones that advocate Brexit. It is centrist like the Lib Dems, moderate Conservatives and Scoialist that are speaking out against what many perceive as a lunatic decision.
> How can you possibly claim to be compassionate when you dismiss the views of thousands of your fellow human beings, most of whom are perfectly law abiding, tax paying citizens simply because they looked at the incumbent party (in Stoke and Copeland), saw it to be lead by an incompetent idiot not fit to run a parish council nevermind a country and looked to an alternative."f*ck you" "too stupid to realise" etc.
You insult the 11,601 of Copeland and the 8,753 of Stoke as much if not more than my statement. Just because I think some people are being blindly arrogant and stupid does not mean I don't feel any compassion for them. Should I accuse you of showing no compassion to the millions of EU workers in this country or the 2 million Brits in the EU who have had their future put in doubt?
> Your comments are a disgrace, you are an arrogant, pompous arse, bloated by your own sense of self importance. It is the hypocritical rantings of people like you that drag politics into the gutter, preaching compassion whilst spewing bile.
"Shut up, dry your eyes mate, you lost, get over it, you lost, you lost, you lost. Ner, ner ner, ner ner!" F*ck you!
Post edited at 20:17
2
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