UKC

Another bout of winter weather appears to approaching with heavy snows, reasonably low winds, and consistently low temps being forecast from Monday onwards. So there's a bit of hope left it seems.

I'm keen to get stuff done in Torridon but this requires me to book days off as it's a fair old trek- so leaving Friday, returning Monday is optimal.

Any suggestions on where a decent 2-3 week forecast might be found? I've been using Met Office and Mountain-Forecast (plus MWIS and SAIS), but I'd like to supplement these with a source that provides a decent'ish long range forecast (if such a source exists). 

Cheers

Honestly the best long range forecast is that from the Met Office, because a) it is based on a mixture of the best-performing models and human interpretation and b) it is appropriately cautious about forecasting more than 5 days into the future. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/long-range-forecast

Beyond that, you could look at ensemble outputs from global circulation models. For example if you go here (https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php?carte=1) and click on a location, it'll give the latest output from the GFS global circulation model. The upper set of lines gives you the predictions (and uncertainty) for the temperature at 850pa altitude (~1500m). The % next to the snow symbol denotes the proportion of runs forecasting snow at that time for that location.

Thank you so much, the predictor graph on the meteociel website is ideal. 

Fantastic 

There is virtually no snow in the northwest Highlands. It looked like June in Torridon today. Some snow on the way but looks like any heavier falls will be in Sutherland and Cairngorms.

You can subscribe to my crystal ball for £200pm. Guaranteed ‘in nick’ forecasts and 2:1 up votes on UKC threads.

😄

If a reasonably accurate 2-3 week forecast for the UK could be done - someone would already be doing it (and it would probably be the met office). If you want to have a look at the raw data and draw your own conclusions, the TWO weather forum is a good source. They also have some good blog summaries for weather geeks.

Do you accept IOU's? Or bitcoin? 😆

Thanks for this. I've now added the TWO weather forum to my bookmarks.

I was hoping to hear of a long range forecast site that gives reasonable'ish predictions. As part of my mission to be optimistic. My optimission!

...I'll get my coat 

Thank you- it is disappointing to see the lack of snow up there just now. I've been doing daily checks on the SAIS blogs and Torridon is looking very lean indeed. Ideally the trip there would consist of deep south gully on Beinn Alligin one day then morrisons gully and fuselage gully on Beinn Eighe the next. Stranger things have happened though so it's not totally impossible. Just not very probable 😭

I'd forget about gullies at this point, there's virtually no snow in any of them and sufficient accumulation is unlikely. With a freeze and some snow the classic ridges could be good. Also things like Ling, Lawson and Glovers Route.

Oh and forget about long range forecasts as a planning tool for conditions, they're just there to keep weather geeks busy.  

For looking further ahead as a non weather geek, I'd recommend the Metoffice Youtube channel. They do these longer range ones which do a good job of explaining, at least, why reliable long term forecasts don't exist.

youtube.com/watch?v=hRVnA_i5J8s&

Towards the end of this one he says something like "If any other outlets tell you they're certain, they're not - they're guessing."

(Note this was Wednesday and it may by now be clearer how much snow we can expect).

Thanks Dave 👍 Another route I've had my eye on is Slioch Northwest Buttress. It's an impressive line but there's little or no info on any winter ascents.Northwest Buttress (Grade-2)

It's possible that this is the same as or similar to 1949 route which is in the current guide but I'm not sure.

Thanks Andy- just subscribed to the Met office YT channel 👌 The forecast for next week is interesting... here's hoping it gets more interesting beyond then 🤞🙂

I use windy.com, you can compare a few models side by side so l like to convince myself that if all the models say more or less the same thing then that's as good a forecast as you can get. As others have said though, beyond a few days it's basically a guess anyway 

I'm heading up to Torridon tonight, having had this week booked in for it for a while. Looks like I may have got unlucky... 

Just been round the back of Liathach and Way Up looks to be complete. That's about it though.

Thank you Dave 👍🙂 

Hope you got something done if you made it to Torridon. Winter restarted here on Monday 6 March and conditions from Wednesday last week have been good . Blue skies and snow to sea level. Overcast today with light snow showers in Gairloch and more snow expected. Getting colder again  after a milder blip yesterday.  Long range forecast for  next 2 weeks is looking good . Staying colder than average through into April. This winter I have found Netweather's long range forecast to be pretty accurate.- - a cold December. Less settled in January but still with some higher level snowfall, a mild and windy February followed by a colder generally settled March with some further snowfall.  Since 1st December my weather station has recorded around  20 days with temperatures getting down to sub zero. This is not typicall for a seaside location like Gairloch and suggests a cold winter with the. Exception of about 3 weeks in February.  Fair bit of lying snow with the exception of February

Please please please keep in mind that forecasting the weather much beyond 5 days is incredibly difficult - which is the reason most forecasters don't bother. 

Fantastic! Thank you so much. This gives us a bit of hope 🙂

We'll be heading for Torridon Friday 24th to be on the hill Saturday 25th and Sunday 26th. The hope is for Beinn Eighe, Morrisons Gully and Fuselage Gully on Saturday. And Deep South Gully and the traverse of Beinn Alligin on Sunday. But we'll have some plan B's and C's in the bag just in case.

I managed to get up Ben Lui Central Gully last week, and The Black Spout on Lochnagar the week before. Both in perfect clear skies with very little wind- amazing days.

Thanks again 

Bottomless and annoying powder on Liathach on Saturday. Obviously yesterdays rain and thaw plus todays fresh will change all of that.

The op has an obsession over Deep South gully however you don’t get a proper look at it from liathach so no report on that. 

Thanks Mike  👍 I would especially like to get up that gully for sure 😊

Steady thaw in progress in Torridon since last Thursday. Due to get colder again after Wednesday this week.  

Thank you. The latest pictures on the SAIS site are heartbreaking.

Are you the SAIS avalanche assessor for Torridon?

No. I live in Gairloch and  am in Torridon at least once a week. .Of the routes you mentioned in an earlier post the only one holding snow is Morrison' s Gully on Sail Mhor( Beinn Eighe). 

By the weekend there will have been further snow showers  on the tops. Difficult to predict the amount.  Becoming colder through the weekend into next week

Ah, thank you. I really appreciate that. It was looking quite promising there until last week 🫤

MWIS forecasting prolonged period of snow on Wednesday with further snow showers on Thursday/ Friday, at least above 600 metres.

It's changed fast. We were thigh deep in snow on the Liathach traverse 9 days ago but it's been warm and wet since. By last Friday much of the snow had gone and I'm guessing there's even less now as it's stayed warm and wet.

Unless what comes down this week falls as snow and consolidates you might need to look at other objectives. 

Personally my brain is starting to think warm rock before the midge re awaken.

We're heading up this Friday for days out Saturday, Sunday. I wouldn't think there's time left now for a sufficient dump-consolidation to make other low grade gullies there an option?

Clutching at straws now 😋

Forget about gullies, no build up and 14 degrees in Inverness today. Temps dropping soon but it's debatable whether it will be enough to even bring in the scrambly ridges by the weekend.

Thanks Fiona. We may just head for the Ben and assess the options there 👍

Everyone has different priorities but at this point in the season, with conditions as they are I'd rather spend time in the NW not winter climbing than on the Ben climbing.

I hear you Dave.

Just thinking, the easy gullies may still be climbable on the Ben this weekend. And we could just head for Torridon in August when it's (maybe) warm, dry, and clear.   

FTFT.  

🤣👍

Hi folks, any updates given recent snow and temps due to drop? Looking at one axe stuff in Glencoe/Lochaber/Ben Lui mainly but could venture further. Conscious in all of those that SW winds pose avalanche risk but also that the slopes were looking pretty bereft earlier this week.

Need to test out some new double boots with my crampons..!

I'm heading for Ben Nevis tomorrow after work to spend a couple of days there, hopefully ascending some easy gullies depending on the SAIS avalanche forecast. 

I imagine that Ben Lui Central Gully is still complete- I was there a couple of weeks ago. Quite a bit of snow tomorrow from the SW though so there might be a fresh cornice to overcome.

Lochnagar is looking pretty good at the moment (the Black Spout is spectacular and a peice of pi$$)-

https://scairngormsblog.sais.gov.uk/2023/03/lochnagar-143/