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I keep hearing people confidently say that this winter will be 'the coldest for years'; I even had one skier friend say this morning with absolute confidence that this winter 'will be the coldest winter on record'
Anyone know what this is based on? Any actual evidence this might be true? Here's hoping...
Anyone know what this is based on? Any actual evidence this might be true? Here's hoping...
In reply to buddingyoungwinterclimber:
Hope over experience.....
But there are predictions to that effect, but I don't know how accurate they are. But we are due a 'good' winter that pops along every few years.
Hope over experience.....
But there are predictions to that effect, but I don't know how accurate they are. But we are due a 'good' winter that pops along every few years.
In reply to buddingyoungwinterclimber:
No evidence at all. Metcheck a few weeks ago issued their predictions, which were for average or slightly below average temperatures, and the coldest this century (ie in the last 4 years). The media reaction was predictable, and the source of the 'coldest on record' nonsense.
The met office retaliated by predicting a milder than average winter.
No evidence at all. Metcheck a few weeks ago issued their predictions, which were for average or slightly below average temperatures, and the coldest this century (ie in the last 4 years). The media reaction was predictable, and the source of the 'coldest on record' nonsense.
The met office retaliated by predicting a milder than average winter.
In reply to Simon Caldwell:
sunspot activity is supposed to be waning over next few years but guess this is one of many factors.
sunspot activity is supposed to be waning over next few years but guess this is one of many factors.
In reply to buddingyoungwinterclimber:
I thought it was supposed to be because historically, cold winters tend to coincide with low sunspot activity, and this winter we have particularly low sunspot activity.
But then again, that might be complete b****x.
I thought it was supposed to be because historically, cold winters tend to coincide with low sunspot activity, and this winter we have particularly low sunspot activity.
But then again, that might be complete b****x.
a lot of predictions are based on pattern matching, and apparantly yhis year is shaping up in many ways to resemble 1946 and 1978 - both of which were followed by pretty cold and snowy winters... 1939, 1984 and 1986 also had very similar Novembers to this year, and were followed by very cold conditions during the winter months...
In reply to buddingyoungwinterclimber:
berried on tree is the only sign so far. More is supposed to indicate a hard winter...
Also the seaweed nailed to the wall is wearing thermals!
But how can anyone predict anything so far in advance accurately? But that goes both ways, maybe we should ask Mr Fish and expect the opposite.
Cant dampen our hopes though. Also last winter didnt turn up so we are execting two this year.
oh please please freeze....
jools
berried on tree is the only sign so far. More is supposed to indicate a hard winter...
Also the seaweed nailed to the wall is wearing thermals!
But how can anyone predict anything so far in advance accurately? But that goes both ways, maybe we should ask Mr Fish and expect the opposite.
Cant dampen our hopes though. Also last winter didnt turn up so we are execting two this year.
oh please please freeze....
jools
In reply to buddingyoungwinterclimber: There will be monsoon rain, hurricanes, and temps in the mid teens over the new year period. There will be a cold snap, high pressure, icefalls forming before your eyes, and blue skies commencing on the morning of 4th Jan when people are packing their cars to return to Englandshire. A similar pattern will repeat itself at the February half term.
Creag Meagaidh will be in on tuesday and wednesday of the second week of March and on the saturday in January when your best mate is getting married. You will stay sober at the reception, drive through the night and sleep in your car at the nature reserve car park, waking up at 0630 to find temperatures have risen by 15 degrees and swarms of midges. You will go for lunch in the beer garden of a pub in Newtonmore and then be gatsoed 3 times on the way down the A9.
Beinn Udlaidh will be in on the last day before Christmas you can possibly get presents on.
The Cuillin ridge will be in perfect nick for the week in April that you are away sport climbing in Mallorca and getting soaked.
Creag Meagaidh will be in on tuesday and wednesday of the second week of March and on the saturday in January when your best mate is getting married. You will stay sober at the reception, drive through the night and sleep in your car at the nature reserve car park, waking up at 0630 to find temperatures have risen by 15 degrees and swarms of midges. You will go for lunch in the beer garden of a pub in Newtonmore and then be gatsoed 3 times on the way down the A9.
Beinn Udlaidh will be in on the last day before Christmas you can possibly get presents on.
The Cuillin ridge will be in perfect nick for the week in April that you are away sport climbing in Mallorca and getting soaked.
In reply to buddingyoungwinterclimber:
The Met Office have a specific system for forecasting seasonal trends for weather areas. The one for the North Atlantic area that encompasses Scandinavia, Iceland, Scotland etc etc is called the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). This can be either Positive or Negative, Positive indicating Northern Europe is going to be warmer and wetter and Negative indicating Colder and Drier.
The prediction from the NAO for Winter 2004/5 is: Positive.
It is only a forecast though and the British Isles are situated in the middle of a few areas' outer limits.
The Met Office have a specific system for forecasting seasonal trends for weather areas. The one for the North Atlantic area that encompasses Scandinavia, Iceland, Scotland etc etc is called the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). This can be either Positive or Negative, Positive indicating Northern Europe is going to be warmer and wetter and Negative indicating Colder and Drier.
The prediction from the NAO for Winter 2004/5 is: Positive.
It is only a forecast though and the British Isles are situated in the middle of a few areas' outer limits.
In reply to Mart Ford:
But we all know how good the met office are!
I like how they narrow a complete season down to one word...
and how is warmer and wetter positive....
we should all go atop a munro and chant a mantra facing north!
But we all know how good the met office are!
I like how they narrow a complete season down to one word...
and how is warmer and wetter positive....
we should all go atop a munro and chant a mantra facing north!
In reply to Lewis climber: I just luuve your use of the 'gatsoed'. (of course I know what you are referring to)
Are you introducing a new word into the 'English' language, or could that be Italian or Lewisian (a bit like the gneiss).
Personally the I think the most usefull bit of kit for a climber is a good car to take you up and down the motorway t0 remote crags, and secondly a good second to watch out for the speed cams.
Are you introducing a new word into the 'English' language, or could that be Italian or Lewisian (a bit like the gneiss).
Personally the I think the most usefull bit of kit for a climber is a good car to take you up and down the motorway t0 remote crags, and secondly a good second to watch out for the speed cams.
In reply to Mart Ford: The Met office predicted atmospheric Oscillation cycle, is that what you mean. This is based on atmospheric circulation model that plots rosby waves (upper atmospheric jet streams). Positive, or more accurately a northward shift, simply implies a shift in that stream bringing more atlantic based depressions, however if the forecast based on continental european air masses is true. The north shift will be good as it will act to draw in large cold air masses from central europe. However these predictions are only good for general temperatures and are usually used by local council to make some plans to grit roads etc.. We are due 3 periods of coolder weather, throughout a generally cooler winter. In the past at best these sort of predictions are only about 50% accurate.
In reply to Mart Ford: Interesting that out of two or three forecasts on the NAO only the met office go for a positive the rest for a negative.
Most predictions go for a average or below average winter.
The fact that it hasn't snowed a lot so far is a good omen in my book, october snow and cold= shite winter.
http://www.usefulinfo.co.uk/globalclimate/predictions_of_winter_2004_2005_i...
Most predictions go for a average or below average winter.
The fact that it hasn't snowed a lot so far is a good omen in my book, october snow and cold= shite winter.
http://www.usefulinfo.co.uk/globalclimate/predictions_of_winter_2004_2005_i...
Mild weather will be in by next week in most of northern europe. Don't be fooled
In reply to Arne: Yes but next week does not constitute a winter. In all looking at the patterns predicted for the NAO it has to be said that although very unreliable you can fairly safely say without a massive shift in the AO(not unlikely) this winter will be cooler than last winter. Or that we will be subject to more cooler continental air masses than mid atlantic depressions.
In reply to Arne: Geoff monk predicting snow for scottish mountains, fri, sat, sun and into next week.
In reply to buddingyoungwinterclimber:
I wonder how old AG is - I seem to remember winters when if it has snowed by the time clocks went back or by the end of November then we were in for a reasonable winter. THe end of Nov always usedto produce some good winter climbing conditions - Eagle Ridge in mid November was one of my best efforts; but at present the only view of the 'Gar is black and cloudy
So his comments "The fact that it hasn't snowed a lot so far is a good omen in my book, october snow and cold= shite winter." is not really correct -cold conditions in the early part of the winter cool the whole system down allowing for frozen turf and cold rock that helps the snow stick to it
We could do with some material on the hills soon otherwise I 'm off to Chile and better conditions there!
I wonder how old AG is - I seem to remember winters when if it has snowed by the time clocks went back or by the end of November then we were in for a reasonable winter. THe end of Nov always usedto produce some good winter climbing conditions - Eagle Ridge in mid November was one of my best efforts; but at present the only view of the 'Gar is black and cloudy
So his comments "The fact that it hasn't snowed a lot so far is a good omen in my book, october snow and cold= shite winter." is not really correct -cold conditions in the early part of the winter cool the whole system down allowing for frozen turf and cold rock that helps the snow stick to it
We could do with some material on the hills soon otherwise I 'm off to Chile and better conditions there!
In reply to buddingyoungwinterclimber:
Listen to the wisdom of the old people. Look at the number of berries on the trees. That is nature providing for the birds for a very hard winter. Also i saw geese flying south in august this year (admittedly in Uist). This is nature getting the hell out of the way of some cold coming from the north.
well i beleive it.
Listen to the wisdom of the old people. Look at the number of berries on the trees. That is nature providing for the birds for a very hard winter. Also i saw geese flying south in august this year (admittedly in Uist). This is nature getting the hell out of the way of some cold coming from the north.
well i beleive it.
In reply to oor wullie:
Dear wullie
Why? Most old people have lost their minds.
Norrie
> (In reply to buddingyoungwinterclimber)
> Listen to the wisdom of the old people.
> Listen to the wisdom of the old people.
Dear wullie
Why? Most old people have lost their minds.
Norrie
In reply to jools:
Warmer and wetter are only positive to the Met Office who are more interested in keeping the grannies toasty than people having fun in snow and ice.
I can chant.
Warmer and wetter are only positive to the Met Office who are more interested in keeping the grannies toasty than people having fun in snow and ice.
I can chant.
In reply to AndyK:
Who knows? You know weather's a lottery anyway. You bought that tent yet?
Who knows? You know weather's a lottery anyway. You bought that tent yet?
In reply to Willber:
As I said, it's only a forecast. What's 'coolder weather'?
3 periods of it aswell, hope it's a good thing...
As I said, it's only a forecast. What's 'coolder weather'?
3 periods of it aswell, hope it's a good thing...
In reply to apache: I'm old enough to remeber winters of the 70's, 80,s 90's. I've been going up the hills since the 80's so i've seen a few winters.
I wasn't talking about snow fall in november but substantial snowfall like october 2002 , when there was enough snow for skiing at the lecht and ski touring in the gorms. 2003 was one of the worst winters for snowfall.
Seem to also remember andy nisbet saying the same about heavy october snow meaning a poor winter.
Heavy October snow also means that the ground does not get a chance to cool down due to the insulating effect of the snow - far better with a few dustings and cold conditions.
Maybe the gar is black and cloudy this week but next week there might be some early climbing, like some of the hills last weekend.
It has snowed a fair bit so far starting in september but it's only the usual dusting which doesn't last too long.
I'm not going to start worrying about winter conditions until about late Dec , winter should really be started by then.
I wasn't talking about snow fall in november but substantial snowfall like october 2002 , when there was enough snow for skiing at the lecht and ski touring in the gorms. 2003 was one of the worst winters for snowfall.
Seem to also remember andy nisbet saying the same about heavy october snow meaning a poor winter.
Heavy October snow also means that the ground does not get a chance to cool down due to the insulating effect of the snow - far better with a few dustings and cold conditions.
Maybe the gar is black and cloudy this week but next week there might be some early climbing, like some of the hills last weekend.
It has snowed a fair bit so far starting in september but it's only the usual dusting which doesn't last too long.
I'm not going to start worrying about winter conditions until about late Dec , winter should really be started by then.
In reply to oor wullie:
No it's not, it's the product of a wet summer and mild autumn.
> Look at the number of berries on the trees. That is nature providing for the birds for a very hard winter.
No it's not, it's the product of a wet summer and mild autumn.
In reply to Simon Caldwell:
Well, apparently that's just part of it... for there to be the number of berries there are around this year, there has to be a very dry summer the year before as well... the huge number of berries being the bush/tree's way of making up for it's lack of berries the previous year...
> No it's not, it's the product of a wet summer and mild autumn.
Well, apparently that's just part of it... for there to be the number of berries there are around this year, there has to be a very dry summer the year before as well... the huge number of berries being the bush/tree's way of making up for it's lack of berries the previous year...
In reply to Simon Caldwell:
so how do you explain the fact my 'nailed to the wall seaweed' wearing thermals then? eh?
in my experience to you should listen to old wives as otherwise you end up with a thick ear!
so how do you explain the fact my 'nailed to the wall seaweed' wearing thermals then? eh?
in my experience to you should listen to old wives as otherwise you end up with a thick ear!
In reply to jools:
What's more the metal plate in my head is tingling - a sure fire sign if ever there was one.
What's more the metal plate in my head is tingling - a sure fire sign if ever there was one.
In reply to buddingyoungwinterclimber:
I'm sure I hear that every year! I was in Glen Coe around new year last year, and this guy said the early snow was a promising sign for a good season - that was a real kiss of death!
I'll be keeping the fingers crossed anyway.
> I keep hearing people confidently say that this winter will be 'the coldest for years';
I'm sure I hear that every year! I was in Glen Coe around new year last year, and this guy said the early snow was a promising sign for a good season - that was a real kiss of death!
I'll be keeping the fingers crossed anyway.
In reply to buddingyoungwinterclimber:
The sunspot cycle is my preferred indicator. Totally broke, so cant afford a full forecast from Weather Action (http://www.weatheraction.com/). We should be due a cold one. My old favourite indicator, snow on or about 20th november, occurred this year, so I am optimistic.
The sunspot cycle is my preferred indicator. Totally broke, so cant afford a full forecast from Weather Action (http://www.weatheraction.com/). We should be due a cold one. My old favourite indicator, snow on or about 20th november, occurred this year, so I am optimistic.
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