UKC

If so, quarantining will once again be required on return. 

Travelling is pretty risky these days. A) you can get caught by a quarantine implementation whilst away like this, but also B) you can be forced to self-isolate/quarantine on arrival at your destination because a fellow passenger tests positive on arrival.  In Madeira a whole planeload of passengers had to do 14 days quarantine because one of them tested positive on arrival, and similar in Jersey - 5 rows of the plane had to quarantine.  To lose your holiday through no fault of your own must be gutting.

I was wondering about planning to get some friends to go with me to the Alps in late August/September, but not sure how safe it is to go there, partly due to rising levels of new viral cases in France, and not sure what can be done, and if there is any use of huts, and in what way.  What are the risks just now? Will that remain the same/get worse?

Quarantining will be a killer for work/business, so maybe imagine being in the Alps, whilst in Wales/Lakes/Scotland, or pretend that I'm multi-pitching, whilst in the Peak District.... Or just stick to imagining that I'm on a real crag whilst just climbing the stonework at Slawston Bridge.... Or just dream of next year being freer, or the next year, or.....

For the majority of people I will have little sympathy as it is a known risk. If you have chosen to go abroad on holiday then tough luck really. It's not like it was unexpected, although it was sudden. 

It will suck for those who maybe went to see elderly relatives or similar types of trips. 

Indeed... Most of them only go there to sit in the sun, get smashed, repeat daily. They should have stayed at home for just one summer and spent their money locally. Zero sympathy as it was a clear risk. No doubt the press will be full oh woe poor me stories soon. 

That's maybe a bit unfair, many climbers head to Spain to climb, and we have also been saying for some time that we would like to go to see Barcelona. Still, for any of these pursuits, it seems a daft time to risk traveling!

That's the bridge of champions. Shouldn't it be imagining I'm on Slawston Bridge whilst just climbing the rock at a real crag 😁

I did say Most, not All. 

There will be as you say a few who might have travelled on work related stuff or to see elderly relatives and have been caught up in it. But if they open nightclubs it's of no surprise. 

It will cost Spain dearly as those who can't quarantine for 2 weeks after will now cancel their trip entirely. 

Zero sympathy. To be honest I find it quite selfish to cram yourself in to a plane for x hours knowing you may have to isolate when you get back. Employers are fighting hard to keep everyone's jobs and at the moment covering people's holidays is an extra expense (Furlough money isn't applicable for holiday that falls back on the employer) then you lose the person for a further 2 weeks as well.

BA can stick it where the sun doesn't shine too saying they are "very dissapointed about the decision" boo hoo, let's just keep bringing people back unrestricted from hot spots and start again shall we.

I was an advocate of shutting down none essential travel back in late January and I certainly wouldn't have relaxed it now. 

My current employer is begging everyone to take holiday because no one has for the last four months. It’s easy to jump to generalisations.

How are you losing the person when they come back if they were already furloughed before and you furlough them again when they get back? (Assuming an honest employer not keeping the furlough running whilst they are away). 

The only difference when an employee is on holiday, is that the employer has to make the pay up to the full 100% of what it was prior to the March restrictions.

Those not concerned about it are probably not going to bother doing the quarantine.

Yes, there is that risk. ☹️

A lot of people have been through a really tough time and a lot of people need a holiday badly. Personally I don't want to go on a plane for a good while yet but if I were someone who went for a hot beach holiday in Spain every year then I might really crave it - and Spain were one of the first countries to actively start encouraging people to go back. Until this week their infection rate was lower than the UK.

So I think it's poor form to start criticising the people out there.

My view is that the vast majority of us will have to quarantine, self isolate or go back in to (local) lockdown at some point before this is all over. We will have to accept that as best we can and we certainly shouldn't turn against others for something as innocent as going on holiday. For some people that will be really hard. We are all in this together and the environment needs to be one of support rather than criticism and division. It is going to go on a long time.

Of fair enough but lots of ordinary folk work at these airlines. Or did work. With mortgages and families as well.

I was at Jet2. I'm ok some aren't 

You don't need to look hard to find the self righteous on here. 

I don't think people are being criticised for going to Spain, just if they then complain that they are now requested to quarantine (or, much worse, fail to do so).

I agree that would be justified but that's not how I read several of the posts above.

My wife’s work imposes a 14 day quarantine on all employees returning from overseas trips irrespective of govt advice. That way all employees know where they stand on booking holidays. 
 

mind you most are working at home. 

44000 employees 
 

Given the very reason many might need a holiday... going through a crowded airport, sitting in a metal box, sitting on a crowded beach, getting smashed in a crowded night club etc.. might not be the right kind of holiday? 

It must be really hard being furloughed getting 80% of your salary then needing a holiday and getting furloughed because when the one chance you get you spend it outside the country and then expect more taxes to pay to be furloughed when you get back. There are large swathes of the population who have had zero support from gov or anywhere and rely upon the economy in the UK to kick-start... Any self interested gits who whinge about holidays abroad really need to have a good talk themselves about personal and societal resbonsility. 

People have been going through a really tough time because there is a global pandemic going on. Surely it's clear that travelling internationally risks prolonging the pandemic?? So times will get tougher! Can't we all just be adult about this and just not sit with other people in planes, pubs and nightclubs?! We need to fly less anyway for the environment, so let's help both the environment and the suppression of the virus! I have no sympathy for people who's holiday plans are now screwed!

As I say, it sucks if you need to visit elderly relatives etc. 

Poor old Grant Schaps!

I got made redundant the week before lockdown, was slightly more than 50% employed and had a working partner so I haven’t had anything from the government (in fact I was made redundant by a local govt body). I had £6000 of work cancelled in a single morning.

I was fortunate to find a temporary job in a lockdown and recognise others weren’t so lucky, but please don’t be so liberal to call people out when you don’t know any of the details.

Should I not book a holiday (uk or abroad) when my employer is requesting that I use holiday so it doesn’t get to the end of the year and everyone wants to book time off?

Booking time off as "holiday" is not the same as going "on holiday". You can spend a very pleasant week enjoying somewhere more local and staying out of places which are a risk for virus spreading! 

He'll still be able to broadcast to the nation from isolation ... Poor old Us!

Tell that to someone living in a grim inner city area. Nevertheless, they could go to somewhere in the UK, which is appropriate with respect to levels of Corona Virus infection, and the inherent R factor of that "tourist" region.

The only sympathy I have is for people living in the UK. Over on the continent things feel far more relaxed compared to the absolute s**t-show that is Britain right now.  

The purpose of the trip makes no difference, the risk was still known.

Choosing to fly to another country is also helping to keep people in work. 

No it's not clear that travelling internationally risks prolongig the pandemic!

What you do at your destination may increase the risks but that is just as true in the UK as it is abroad.

As for those with elderly relatives abroad, they chose to live in different countries so maybe they should suck it up?

Given your follow up replies, that was an almost gleeful statement. How unpleasant. 

Try being a little less judgemental, and a little more sympathetic. 

Yes, but I still have more sympathy for them. Seeing family, while not strictly essential, seems a little less frivolous in our current times than going purely for fun. 

An airplane is not clearly a much higher risk?? 

Indeed, and I still can't believe we have opened pubs and restaurants either, I think it's insane! 

Maybe they should, and many are. My brother still hasn't been over to see us since my dad died. He couldn't come and see my dad at the end of his life or come to his funeral. It sucks but he did suck it up. I still have more sympathy for those who are choosing to go and see elderly relatives than those just going on holiday, even if it maybe isn't still the wisest decision.

If people are daft enough to go on holiday abroad in the current situation, I have no sympathy at all! 

daft = self interested

Some places have more, less of the virus present than other places? So you risk bringing it back.... here (Norway) we aren't letting americans in generally.  How much risk does a visitor from the US have compared to (extreme) New Zealand?

Yup, that's what we do.

re. jobs. Yes, tough for those in the aviation,,,, it will be interesting to see how that recovers, but it will be many years rather than months away.

A friend and her partner snatched a week in Spain on the spur of the moment after seeing a cheap deal. They're both newly qualified paramedics who were chucked in a the deep end right from the off and have worked a shit tonne of over time during the last four months with zero leave taken. This was partly to pay off huge student debts accrued while training and partly out of sense of duty. They figured they'd be able to grab a quick holiday in the Sun and relax a little before the second spike hits.

Seems they've just added to their stress levels and will also have to endure a shit load of smug tut tutting from strangers who know nothing of how burnt out they were feeling. They both have my total sympathy.

I suspect the majority of the judgemental individuals are the same people who during lockdown complained that they had seen too many people out and about whilst also being out and about themselves..... yawn 

There is no obvious correlation in my mind between travel and length of the pandemic. We obviously need to quarantine people from higher risk countries, which is what is happening here. But this is going to go on for a loonng time - the policies now in place throughout much of Europe are to re open the economy as far as we can without increasing the current levels of infection substantially. Further reducing the infections below the current level is no longer a goal people are actively pursuing and will not happen in lieu of a vaccine. That's pretty obvious. In that context, it makes no sense for any individual to put off a holiday or make other personal sacrifices above/beyond the rest of the population u(and following the applicable guidelines) unless they or their family are particularly personally vulnerable to the virus. We now need to get on with our lives as far as we can within the guidelines, and hope those guidelines work together with test/trace, local lockdowns and quarantines as they become necessary, to avoid a major second wave before either a vaccine or drugs significantly reduce the fundamental risk. Criticising people for having done that when they are currently in a very difficult situation (or maybe, depending how difficult it is for them to quarantine) is really poor.

P.S. I really don't get your argument about visiting relatives. If relatives have seen fit to live abroad they clearly aren't bothered about regular visits. Why do they have any greater need than a nurse who has been stuck in a PPE suit for long shifts every day for months and now wants a holiday?

It’s a risk for anybody if you book overseas holidays that this will happen..

It’s also a risk in the U.K.  ....those in Leicester have had the same issue. 

Unfortunately  we have have to wise up on this and weigh up the risks of Covid impacting on holidays. 

That for the moment is the new norm. It is the same in a lot of country’s and is not unique to  U.K. citizens. 
 

For the moment we just need to change and adapt our thinking. 

I think you're just jealous. 

Why shouldn't they go on holiday if the 'rules allow'.

You can add to that all the people whose kids bring non-covid coughs home once school starts, making them self isolate.

I agree that we need to adapt our thinking. We need to accept that we are all at risk of becoming part of a quarantine or lockdown or having to isolate for reasons that are not our fault. We need to be supportive of people who are unlucky in that regard, rather than being critical based on steryotypes about people going to get drunk in nightclubs. We need to accept that we can now do most things we want to but not always in the same way we used to. We need to accept that this could last for a number of years and become the new normal. We need to protect each others' mental health and look out for each other while doing it, rather than being divisive.

They should be (and are) allowed, but they shouldn't moan if the rules change whilst they are away

Now I am a surprised at you, I detect a bit of schadenfreude, I thought you were  better than that, take a slapped wrist.

I have just booked a trip to Croatia, no climbing just some R and R in the sun, I hope you are not wishing bad on me.

Sorry if this has been mentioned earlier.

For some perspective

Deaths in the UK in the last 5 days: 426
Deaths in the Spain in the last 5 days: 12

I'm surprised they're letting us go!!

Like Cumming's was asked to stay at home, when there was much much greater chance of spreading the virus in the UK.

People are STILL more likely to spread it within the UK by staying at home without going to Spain in the first place!!

Really?? Loads of people all contained in a small tube together for a couple of hours?? That seems pretty obvious to me!

My residents at work still can't get on with any level of life at all. They can't even go for a walk yet. The number of community infections are creeping up (very slowly at the moment) and public health are already preparing us for the next wave. How are these people being allowed to get on with their lives? If we continue to curtail some unnecessary parts of life for the general public then my residents could start to live lives again a little. Do you have any idea how horrendous this is for those in many care settings? I'm currently working in mental health, what do you think this containment is doing to their mental health?! 

Nope, I have no sympathy for people going on holiday having to quarantine at all.

Well indeed, why would you want to get on a plane with other Brits?

I wouldn't!

I wish no bad on anyone, that is not the same as having no sympathy!

If I was in a position to do so I'd be on a plane to Spain asap and be staying there. There is far more discipline and control than we see here.

I've friends there at the mo, due to fly back to the UK tomorrow - they are over there visiting family, so not on a regular holiday - and will have work to go back to, now will need to take an additional 2 weeks unplanned leave. If the UK government had a genuinely good reason for imposing the quarantine then fair enough, but I really can't see the reasoning, am I missing something?

Yes sitting on a plane brings problems, just like sitting on a bus or train, or going to the pub. Which 100,000's / millions are doing daily.

Hey buddy, I was weighing the same concerns for a late Aug-Sept trip. My thinking is if I stay to the quieter mountain areas of France and Switzerland where there are no covid outbreaks currently (returning perhaps thru Belgium or Holland if France gets worse), then the problem is manageable.

I still to find a super solid climbing buddy however.

John C

If you look at the cumulative cases for 14 days per 100000 people, Spain has more than double the cases we have. Death rates haven't caught up yet because cases have just started spiking. 

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Tbh, I'm surprised we are as middle of the road as we are. 

You are generally on a plane for longer than you are on a bus or train and no fresh air flow. However, all the things you mention are best avoided! I would not do any of them! 

What happens if someone returns from Spain, claims they have a cough, get a test and come back negative. Do they still have to self isolate? 

Also will they be entitled to statutory sick if they've returned, have to self isolate and can't work from home? (And yes I'm aware statutory sick pay gives very little money).

Because the vast majority of them are not infected.

That's your choice but we really don't need yet another wet blanket.

I don't really see why girlymonkey is getting so many Dislikes.
We're in a middle of a pandemic and everyone knows that circumstances can change very quickly with regards to where spikes can occur. 
Indeed, the current FCO advice is only travel for essential reasons and expect changes to measure with little notice.
Basically, travel by all means, but don't be shocked if it all goes tits up in the meantime.

Indeed.  Seeing as the virus can only travel when people travel, the more people who take their holidays abroad in the middle of a global pandemic, the longer we are are all going to be in this mess together.  In another post you made the point we are more risky than many other countries so it’s not a worry - but it is because we then seed more cases their, slowing their eradication which in turn goes on to seed more cases everywhere connected to there.  Hard geographic borders are a highly evidenced, effective technique.  It’s clear we’re not going to have that going forwards; testing pre/post flight with responsive quarantine rules is the next best thing, and people need to be aware they’re signing up for that risk when flying.

Figure 7 in this paper - https://virological.org/t/preliminary-analysis-of-sars-cov-2-importation-es... 

I have little to no sympathy with holiday makers complaining.  Trading potential quarantine upon arrival and/or upon return for a sunny break is a decision they made.  You get the holiday, you may have to quarantine afterwards.  Arguably the government advice hasn’t been the clearest but hopefully now after this has done the media rounds most people will understand and will either not travel abroad or will plan accordingly for possible quarantine.  

How are the deaths in the UK (mostly PHE) and spain being measured/assessed as C-19 related?

I am also surprised although it’s a big source of income into Spain and things weren’t exactly roses there before the pandemic.

Deaths however are misleading with regards the risk - they trail infections by 2 to 3 weeks, so infections can surge before deaths, this requiring quarantine.

A common thread to several posters is that these holidays away to Spain are a key part of recharging / mental health.  

If cheap air travel has become an integral part of wellbeing for many people, things aren’t looking great.  Climate change and all that.  I’ll be surprised if cheap air travel can continue indefinitely,

There’s been a lot of talk recently about physical health and covid risk; there’s a flip side to that coin that needs talking about.

I dunno, nations are going to get fed up with permanent social distancing and repeated lockdowns that kill their internal economies soon enough.  When you eliminate within your hard borders* you can de-restrict the internal economy entirely, that's a massive difference in consumer confidence especially for the vulnerable.  I bet if you gave people the option of elimination within a 'hard' border with air bridges to similar nations as they eliminate versus permanent social distancing and lockdowns they'd go for elimination now they know what the former is like.  Europe could easily do that given the desire.

*even then they are still open to those willing to quarantine or essential workers.

I know our government says we ‘can’ do it, but given the last few months I’m sure some would argue that they are perhaps neither a great source of epidemiological advice, nor the epitome of moral responsibility

I saw a new interview with various people, one being a hair dresser talking about how this will impact her business and she feels awful because her customers depend on her. 

Point A, as a hair dresser she has just had 3 months off. 

Point B, her salon can only have been open a week before she flew to Spain for a holiday. 

Another guy was just labeled self employed and he was complaining he would be unable to work for 2 weeks. Tough shit, you know what's going in, you took the chance, it bit you in the arse. 

Sorry?! Wet blanket? At the start of this whole pandemic my entire diary got wiped, I'm self employed. I went and started working 12 hour shifts in a dementia care home dealing with people who had Covid. Then I found work closer to home in a mental health unit where people are highly vulnerable but can normally lead a reasonably active and fulfilling life. 

At the moment, none of these people can have any quality of life at all, they are just surviving. I want us to stop people going to pubs and going on holiday so that these people can see their loved ones and have some sort of life! I don't think that makes me a wet blanket! Having seen what the most vulnerable are going through, it doesn't seem like a big sacrifice to curtail some of our pleasures for a bit longer to make life for them more bearable. 

My current place normally has walking groups, knitting groups, pool groups, music groups etc. They normally do their own shopping and cooking and plan their weeks to be fulfilling and meaningful. They get the bus or train to go and meet loved ones. Currently, we can't even let them into the kitchen to make a cup of tea for themselves. They have no activities at all, they don't cross the threshold. How do you think this is for their mental health?! They all have other health issues alongside their mental health issues, so they fall under the same restrictions as any other care home. 

I didn't realise quite how contained people still were in care homes, no. They certainly have my sympathy. It seems a bad idea, I'd have thought going for a walk around a care home garden would be negligible risk. To be honest it sounds to me like your problem is with government policy on the pandemic, and you are lashing out at people trying to live within that policy as a surrogate for them. It's not very fair when they are in a difficult situation.

​​​​​

Just because you can does not mean that you should. The risk of infection and the risk of quarantine are well understood and communicated.

Choose to fly to Spain for a fortnight's climbing/sunbathing/Benidorm debauchery, best to have another fortnight's leave in your back pocket just incase.

Pub, bus, car share, aircraft, all a big no from me currently. 

Getting off topic but surely it's bonkers that all those things remain banned at the moment. Is there is a clear timetable for opening them in the near future? You will know more than me but I've lived first-hand with one close family member who had dementia and I know how hard that would have been for him. I thought I had seen on the news that limited visitors were allowed again now. It surely seems sensible to allow visitors and activities but put a strict testing regime in place.

I've said enough on this thread now.

Presumably since the hair dresser is self-employed, and presumably earns less than £50,000 pa, then she may be able to claim the government grant for the self-employed? Which is a debatable point morally, since she went on holiday, and perhaps should have known of the risk of the situation changing to one of quarantine when arriving back (?). Yet why should the UK people fund her, when she was the one taking the risk. She may argue, nevertheless that there had been no general knowledge that the quarantine rules could be engaged within a matter of hours.

I agree with you, if she is worried about customers, then why did she go on holiday, so soon after being allowed to work again?

Likewise, I have just heard someone on the Radio (4) bemoaning not knowing what pay she will get (and an employment expert said that employers are not bound to pay for time in quarantine, nor sick pay, unless rules change, and may not be able to furlough employees, resulting unpaid leave). Yet this person is still in Spain, and did not sound as if she had tried to come back early, in order to reduce her time away from work despite quarantining. Surely trying to get home early would be the reasonable thing, in order to get on with the quarantine as soon as possible?

You are in Scotland, I believe. Correct me if I a wrong, but I think that care homes in England and in Wales do not now have the same degree of restriction on movements. If that is correct (tell me if I am wrong), then perhaps you should lobby the Scottish parliament.

As regards Pubs, I went for a drink at a local pub with my employees (3), in order to help bind us as a group, as I have some new workers, and just to relax after a hard week. I went and ordered the drinks from the bar, where only 2 people were allowed in the whole bar at a time, then we drank at a large table outside, with the next nearest table 3-4 metres away. Then last night I went for a half with my friend after climbing at Slawston bridge (30mins drive away from home). When I ordered the beer, there was no-one else at the bar, and the nearest person was 3-4 metres away, again. We went outside and stood about 2 metres from the door, drunk our beer, and then went home.

All of the above is helping with social and mental recovery for us the people and workers, whilst allowing some chance that the hospitality industry and its workers, have something surviving, for what will be a very hard winter. So please stop looking only at your own situation, and think about others. The situations that I outline above did not involve much risk of contagion, if at all, and the economy is still going to be hard hit, even with some reduced restrictions.

I don’t think you understand what happens when covid gets loose in a care home where residents are close together, are at very elevated risk from covid and where hard quarantine is almost impossible - requiring constant vigilance and endless cleaning/changing from poorly paid staff, along with a bottomless draw of PPE.

The USA is often discussed as failing with covid but the UK still has 50% more per capita deaths than the USA and I think this is largely down to it getting in to the care sector early on.

The people living in care have to endure incredibly tough restrictions because the alternative is worse; not just for them - if the care sector  remains a reservoir of infection, it could bloom out in the winter and we’ll all suffer.

The last few months have been an eye opener for me in human behaviour.  I like to think that it’s because many people just don’t understand the statistics mechanics at work and how it’s not about individual risk but group behaviour and reducing - at an individual level - very low probability events for the greater good.  The alternative is that many people are utterly self absorbed.

I think I agree with you on that. Anyone getting on a plane or booking a holiday is taking a chance and this quarantine though a surprise should not be a surprise, apparently there is global Pandemic, and 3 months ago people were calling for the Government to send flights to rescue people.
So anyone who has gone to Spain or is going to eg Croatia and has not considered the road could be rocky, is an imbecile.

Is that any worse than a train or bus in the UK, the air is changed more often in a plane than either of those, but still there are more people travelling within the UK than are travelling on planes to Spain

Neither would I.

A good point, since we seem to be doing less testing, we're getting fewer cases, a la Trump, "stop testing you stop having cases".

I suppose it's a bit of a minefield for anyone to make informed choice on, with so little data. It wouldn't be beyond Spain not recording some cases, considering how much their economy relies on tourism.

We're not AFAIK limiting or quarantining visitors from the US.

The US wasn't on the exempt list last time I looked.

I did laugh at the number of peole being interviewed on the BBC complaining about the position who had their masks on the wrong way round.

So that’ll save me two hours and £28 a year minus depreciation on the sharp scissors...

Try getting a flight, and then there are internal restrictions on travel between States.So there is a natural quarantine any way.

Nope, our restrictions have been tightened up in the last couple of weeks. Covid teams have been in and got us to implement more restrictions. We are in full on prep for second wave, presumably because they have opened indoor spaces for the rest of the population. They have prioritised the spenders over the vulnerable, and the vulnerable are getting screwed further. 

There is still Covid in the community, and we cannot have it get into homes. 

A friend of mine booked a trip to the Canaries last week.

She's a community nurse who's been working 45+ hour weeks since February, so deserves a break, but she can't quarantine for 2 weeks on return, as one of her colleagues will be off and it would leave them short-staffed. And she won't be paid if she did.

After much time on the phone yesterday, they're now going to Turkey - at vastly more expense.

She's going to be (even more) gutted if they lift the ban on the Canaries today!

Personally, I think anyone booking foreign travel in the current circumstances is just mad!

I do have sympathy for those that booked before Christmas, before all this kicked off.

"A good point, since we seem to be doing less testing"

I think you are mistaken

How many tests are we doing per day?

Except there isn't really is there, there are still plane loads of people coming for the US into the UK, with no restrictions at all, and again AFAIK not testing.

As an aside, we were discussing:

1. Why is 2 weeks quarantine the only option from gov? The alternates being to isolate and get a PCR test (or indeed the Ab test) and if proves - ve and or +ve respectively the 2 weeks is curtailed.

2. Of course if the testing is unreliable... Then why are we doing it in the first place?

Answers on a fag packet... (To neatly file with other fag packet plans?) 

I get daily reports on USA/UK flights as I ship stuff on passenger planes to the USA.............try booking a flight.

Oh yes there is:

Good questions.  I didn't immediately find the source for the summary I link here, so I made a plot from it, attached.  https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/journal-scans/2020/05/18/13/42/var... (Hurrah, PNG uploads now supported for crystal sharp graphs, thanks UKC).

The false negative rate depends on time since infection; the linked study suggests it bottoms out at ~ 20% about 3 days after symptoms present.  Symptoms can present more than 14 days after infection it seems.  Or never present at all for some infectious people...

My best estimate stems from considering the time windows,  - for a two week holiday, there is the possibility that...

• Someone was infected at the start of the holiday and is likely to be entering the qPCR detection window and infectious window when they return, so they have a high chance of accurately cleared with a test, but...
• Someone who was infected at the end of the holiday (or on the flight home) may not go on to test positive for up to 14 days, so a test is no use in clearing them until they've been quarantined for up to 14 days, and then...
• There's people who became infected anywhere between those cases

So really a proper clearing regime would look like a two week quarantine combined with testing every 3 days during the two week quarantine (3 days being about the size of the most effective window in the qPCR testing).   Which is pretty complicated, and involves a lot of potentially infected people traipsing about for tests on a regular basis...

As it is we’re apparently hoping all infected people will either cure or become symptomatic and get tested during the 14 day period, and are ignoring the possibility of people being infectious without symptoms after day 14...

Because every case that is identified and removed from circulation goes on to eliminate a possible future branch of 3>9>27>81>... infections.

This sounds like I'm contradicting myself, but read on...

As a way of "clearing" someone who has presented symptoms of who has travelled, qPCR testing seems to be far from ideal as it may only catch 4 in 5 *at best*, where-as well observed quarantine of sufficient duration will catch 5 in 5.

However, if this testing is used to regularly screen people without symptoms in high risk positions  (e.g. workers and residents/patients in healthcare, care homes etc.) then it will prune many potential future branches of infections by removing people who are infected but without symptoms (yet) to clue them in.  Unlike going on holiday, this work is not so much a choice - people likely depend on the income, and other people probably depend on them in quite critical ways.  So we can't lock these people down until the situation is better, but we can reduce the scale of symptom free transmission by through imperfect testing.  

The right policy will derive from understanding the subtleties and nuances of the testing methods and the environments to which they are deployed, as well as the human responses to it all.  Should be simple for a world class government with a senior advisor who once read some physics and history textbooks in a converted swimming pool...

I've taken some very simplistic views here, including ignoring any longitudinal correlation or lack thereof in the false negative data, and about everything else.

Heard an employment lawyer on the radio this morning saying that quarantine doesn’t give the employer any obligation to pay wages as employee is not available to work. So the choice for employee becomes (1) take annual leave to cover the quarantine or (2) take unpaid leave. Might still not be good news for the employer either.

Rushing off to the other end of the continent as soon as they lifted the restrictions always looked a bit risky anyway. And I don’t care what they say about the air filtration systems on planes, they’ll always look like infection spreaders to me - all those folk jammed up against one another for hours!

Noses, throats and mouths can dry out significantly with the dry cabin air on planes, which raises susceptibility to infection.

I'm in Spain at the moment.

I was thinking of making a trip to Llamberis at some point in the summer to repeat some of the routes I did in the past, but I think I won't this time round. 

As far as the Pandemic goes I think that perhaps lock down and flight restrictions from other more affected countries within Europe where lifted a tad too early. 

We shall see how it evolves here and in Europe  over the following weeks. If it is only an early lift of lock down phenomena I expect other countries will follow suit in Coronavirus cases no matter how impervious their frontiers are. There are other factors, like the nightlife and Tourism which can be held accountable.

Best wishes

This isn't complicated but many Brits abroad can't do the simple thinking here: we are in an unprecedented pandemic, we do not know how this will pan out, local or regional tightening of restrictions are likely, booking any overseas holiday is rolling the dice!

The disgruntled Brits on the radio today explaining that they simply couldn't not go to their villa in Portugal for their annual holiday amused me!

Do you have any evidence for this?

Nice one

For which part?  

That mucosal membranes can dry out on flights, or that dry mucosal membranes raise susceptibility to infection?  

It is well established fact that cabin air humidity is very low on most passenger jets (it’s less low on the Boeing Dreamliner).

It is well established fact that very dry air leads to dehydration including drying out of the mucus layer on mucosal membranes.  It’s also long established that a primary function of that mucus is to provide innate immunity against various viruses that cause respiratory infections [eg 1].  There are studies linking dryer air to increased incidence of upper respiratory tract infections [eg 2].

There is enough published work out there on covid and the eye, nose and mouth mucosa as entry routes that you couldn’t pay me to sit in a metal can dehydrating my mucous membranes for hour after hour in close proximity to dozens of potential infected.  Even if I don’t get covid (it’s pretty unlikely right now, after all), I open myself up to a whole gamut of respiratory infections and poorer respiratory health which doesn’t seem like the best idea right now...  

More of a long haul problem though than flying to/from Spain.

“Mars Throat” Heinlein called it in his 1949 story “Red Planet”.

There are many unknowns around covid and I haven’t seen a detailed study of its interaction with the mucosa, but there is enough information out there for me to decide that flying is most definitely not erring on the side of caution in an emerging pandemic still in the growth phase when detailed studies of the mechanics of infection are - understandably - thin on the ground.
 

[1] - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4752725/

[2] - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954611108003429

Our public health boss (epidologist by trade) says a PCR test will give a positive result for 80% of cases 7 days after infection, and 95%+ after 14 days. Thus testing incomers upon arrival will miss most cases infected during transit. We have a 14 day self-isolation rule for incomers, they did a pilot trial to reduce that to a PCR test on the 7th day with release from self-isolation to a 'social distancing' state for another week (we don't have social distancing rules at present).  This pilot trial wasn't extended as relatively few people took it up - it would appear that people don't want to do 7 day self-isolation any more than 14. There were issues trying to get people booked in to do their tests on the 7th day too.

With regard to people breaking self-isolation,  7 people have been caught and fined between £3&8k each so far, so even our £10k + (£10k for the employer if work related) maximum fine for breaking the rules isn't deterring everybody. Loads of people must be breaking the rules in the UK with the smaller £1k fine.

So your  excellent PH Director in Jersey is in effect saying that Bavaria's plans to test everyone on immediate return from holidays is a complete waste of time.It is omething I would agree with.

Will she not move to the mainland and sort us out?

You seem to have a very old fashioned 18-30 type view of a beach holiday. Many go for the sun, the local culture, different foods, peace and quiet in secluded coves and beaches, reading a good book on their balcony etc. They booked a holiday once restrictions had lifted.

Having no sympathy for them seems a tad harsh.

And airports are still hardly crowded, and most flights about 2/3 full.

The issue is really that people need to understand the risks if they go overseas. Like what happens if you get Covid 4 days before you go on holiday. Or if you test positive whilst away...should they get a flight back?

I read about somebody going to Spain for a weekend break wtf is that about. I can understand 1 week/2 weeks.

People may  not really be understanding the risks or deliberately choosing to ignore them. I suspect its 50/50 on this. At least this issue is a wake up call.

Night clubs ?

a Benidorm all day English breakfast compared to a Torremelinos one? 

That's about 1% of Spanish holiday makers.

It's surprising how many Brits fall off balconies, drunk, often killing themselves whilst enjoy a good read? 

I imagine most holidays were booked long before covid and they've decided to go regardless. Yes government advice is dire but folk just have to make adult decisions for themselves. They complain if they get told what to do, but also complain when they aren't!! 

I've a flight booked in the autumn and I've decided I'll just write off the cost and do something else or nothing. It's just not the year for it. 

Don't people use logic and decision trees to determine important outcomes? 

1. Do I think that coronavirus is a continuing global health and economic risk? If Yes goto 2 If No goto 5

2. As an adult do I take responsibility for my own actions and decisions, and inform myself fully? If Yes goto 3 If No goto 5

3. Is a holiday in an overseas country outside the control of my government who have been utterly brilliant and consistent in making the right decisions in my interest an absolute nessecity (use of dictionary allowed)? If Yes goto 4 If No goto 5

4. Three pebble slab is HVS

5. Goto 1

You have missed out, have you used a risk matrix, taking into account the likelihood and consequences.

Are you in the light of this prepared to accept the consequences.

I am off to Croatia, I am prepared to accept possible consequences.

• Cancellation
• Quarantine
• Falling ill
• Financial loss

I will not be happy if it hits the fan, but I am moving forward with the best information available, and have taken out insurance.

It's still HVS

Only the first time 🙄

Haha You were doing well until you wrote that! Do you think the PM going on TV telling us all that he's happily shaking hands with CV victims whilst they are in hospital was the right decision?

I can't comment on 3PS unfortunately! 

Insurance is very debateable on this and I would not rely on it for one second.

You can only do what you can do.

• I have booked late, so up to date info.
• Booked Atol package, which I normally never do 
• Taken insurance which covers covid, which I usually do not take at all.
• Got e 111

I am not sanguine, but it's hardly Downhill racer.

This year will be the first year I've not gone to Hawaii for a 3 week surfing holiday because of Covid. Normally I don't go because I can't afford it and can't surf well enough..

I think you may have misjudged my firmly planted tongue in cheek...theyre a bunch of shapeshifting c&xts

I would love to see the wording on the Covid insurance policy, bet it is full of gaps.The insurance industry is I understand in turmoil over its cover and response.

Its a risk, usually if the Foreign office puts a no go on a country, insurance does not cover it.

E111 does not cover a medical repatration for example.

At the moment I have a 2 week trip to Greece planned in October.Sport climbing.But we are taking a very flexible approach and not relying on anything. We will take final decison mid September ( as it will have changed by then anyway).But as my wife works in risk management we have a good grasp of the issues.

Flexibility and a hard nose to decide not to go if necessary is the key.

You can get covid insurance, like you can insure everything, for a price. Woman on the radio yesterday, said £50 for  2 weeks. Don't know what it covers mind, but it's available.

My apologies, I did. I'm so used to reading and hearing from people who do hold them beliefs!

Stealing that one, ha ha

As I said I would read the wording before leaping and trusting that bandwagon.It will never be all encompassing.

And the big issue is still if the country that you visit imposes a lockdown or contacts you and tells you to isolate and you are stuck in a house or hotel...it is pretty boring..and insurance does not cover you for boredom.Never mind you cannot get back on a plane.

https://www.which.co.uk/news/2020/07/coronavirus-what-it-means-for-your-tra...

Reasonable from a few days ago. Bet that will have changed.

From the article, it appears that cover for FCO intervention is very limited.

The table they produce is very informative. But also I suspect out of date  as at yesterday.

It all depends on what Bavaria (and all of Germany soon) are trying to achieve.  If Bavaria feel that catching those infected a week before their return is enough to keep infection levels under control then test on return is fine for them. If they were on an elimination strategy then it patently isn't.  We have much to lose over here - the island is completely unrestricted internally, we can't just bring in healthcare capacity from the next county, and we can't print money to pay people furlough forever. Thus, for us, it makes much more sense to avoid the re-imposition of restrictions by keeping a hard border.

PS. I'm in Guernsey, not Jersey. Jersey have a similar mindset to Bavaria - open borders with either 14 day voluntary self-isolation, test on arrival, or negative test 72 hours before travel.  So far they've identified a handful of cases (all asymptomatic at the time of arrival) with arrival tests and no community spread identified from cases they've missed.  They are however, still social distancing with large gatherings banned and it's only been in operation for 2 weeks.  They opened up because they were really worried that they'd lose their air routes.  Technically, we are also in a 'flatten the curve' state and its believed T&T will be able to nip any outbreaks in the bud, however we're unofficially keeping the virus out - self-isolators are getting phone calls and home visits and fined if they're naughty.

Two friends of mine were meant to be getting married in Spain - they'd been planned it all last year, had family arranged to be flying over from all over the world including South America...  Elderly family who they hadn't seen for years were coming, it was going to be a real occasion... 

Of course it all got cancelled so they decided to keep their flights and go to El Chorro to climb, they could do with a bit of cheering up after cancelling their wedding.

I'm not saying you should be sympathetic, but lots of people have circumstances that you might not be aware of.

I just watched this video and i thought it  was quite interesting in terms of assessing the suitability of flying right now.  anyway it looks at many studies which have looked at virus and bacterial transmission on airplanes and most of them show that planes are actually relatively safe places to be, the ventillation is so strong that they replace 100% of the air every 3 minues or so.  One study showed  that an influenza patient is only likely to infect 0.7 people during a flight. I would be interested to see a similar study for a bus/metro and i guess that number would be much much higher.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUCru4p15-4&t=616s

I just watched this video and i thought it  was quite interesting in terms of assessing the suitability of flying right now.  anyway it looks at many studies which have looked at virus and bacterial transmission on airplanes and most of them show that planes are actually relatively safe places to be, the ventillation is so strong that they replace 100% of the air every 3 minues or so.  One study showed  that an influenza patient is only likely to infect 0.7 people during a flight. I would be interested to see a similar study for a bus/metro and i guess that number would be much much higher.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUCru4p15-4&t=616s

looks like France will do a reciprocal travel quarantine from UK shortly?