UKC

Hi,

Looking for advice or more accurately validation on a planned climb this weekend.

Myself and a group of friends, inexperienced climbers/hill walkers, were planning to climb Ben Nevis this weekend. We intended to take the CMD route, despite us being inexperienced IF conditions were perfect.

However, forecasts for Saturday are high winds 25-30mph, with 40-45mph gusts and rain/thunderstorms. My feeling is, this is quite obviously far from ideal conditions for novice climbers on a challenging route.

So far my group seem to want to complete this route regardless of these conditions. Am I right in thinking this is highly stupid?

Wind that strong on a narrow ridge is pushing it towards hazardous, especially if it's gusty and liable to knock people off balance unexpectedly. Novices tend not to be that sure footed on that sort of ground anyway, in my experience. Rain makes it slippy, and potentially means low cloud and reduced visibility which is both crap for views and makes route finding/navigation much more challenging. Being on high ground in thundery weather is clearly a risk - and not one that I'd personally be into. I'd say it sounds like far from ideal conditions for the CMD Arete for an experienced group, so unless the forecast changes then a less able team would be wise to give it a miss.

I would not say stupid but given the forecast(I've just looked at the Met Office forecast for the Ben for Saturday) I would walk somewhere else.

I can understand the desire to do a hill if your time in the area is limited but if that forecast turns out to be correct, it would not be a pleasant walk.

However, things can change quite quickly so keep an eye on the forecast through the rest of the week.

Apart from the lack of experience of your group how well equipped are they? In other than very settled weather you need to be prepared for almost all type of weather.

The last time I did the Ben was years ago but in the middle of August. During our walk we had

brilliant sunshine with great views,

heavy cloud with a visibility of about 10 feet,

heavy driving rain, sleet and hail,

flat calm and the odd gusts of wind we had to lean against to stand up.

Dave

Make your excuses and don't go with them ;p

Only kidding. You're right to be concerned especially if thunderstorms are forecast.

CMD is one of my favourite walks however it's a looong, tiring day especially for an inexperienced group even in perfect conditions. 

If it was me and that was the forecast I'd go do something else.

If the wind is getting up to that speed and it's forecast rain I'd give it a miss personally. The Grog followed by Ben Fong's was always a better option to my liking....

What's the point of going around one of the finest hill walks in the UK when the weather is poor and the visibility rubbish? Some routes are best left for when the weather is great; the Carn Mor Dearg Arete is one of them.

Stupid, foolish, ill-advised, impetuous, reckless or delusional take your pick. The fact that your group still want to go this route despite the forecasted conditions, shows how inexperienced they are. The CMD is no picnic, it’s a long day, it’s exposed and there is a prolonged Grade 1 scramble required more than likely on wet rock this weekend along with gusty conditions. It has very few bug out points if any for inexperienced climbers/walkers when realization hits home. Best left to the experienced even on a good day and as others have said above the views deserve to be seen on a clear day.

A 40mph gusts will be a bad time up there for most people.

Me too, but if I were planning to be in the area anyway I'd be v reluctant to bail out of a trip I really wanted to do on Saturday based on Tuesday's forecast. 

I would be thinking about plan b by now though, and what kind of things in Friday's forecast would tip the decision one way or the other.

If I had a trip planned I would probably go anyway but have a whole selection of plans for every weather forecast eventuality. Theres plenty to do in Lochaber whatever the weather. Tuesday is too far in advance to get an accurate forecast for next Sunday.

If however you find it is high wind and rain with thunder then I certainly wouldn't be trying to summit the Ben via the CMD. 

Even in perfect conditions CMD is not to be taken lightly.  I consider myself experienced but I built up a lot of experience before doing the CMD.  In my view it is harder than Striding Edge but easier than Crib Goch.  This is to do with the commitment and exposure rather than technicality.  CMD is a long day where you need to be well equipped in footwear, clothing and food/water. 

Does all the party have appropriate clothing and footwear?  Even in forecast good weather you will will need a range of layers and waterproofs.  You never know when it will change.

Do you know how all the members of the party react to exposure?  I recommend the party trying out something similar in terms of exposure but with less commitment and easier to get off.  The last thing you want on CMD is someone on the party getting stuck due to the exposure.

Whilst getting onto and navigating the CMD arete itself is straightforward, there is no clear path up the exit slopes onto Ben Nevis.  Navigating off the summit is also difficult in poor weather.  Does all the party know how to navigate confidently?

I first did the CMD in good weather.  I really enjoyed it and found it straightforward. It is a great route and one of my best days out.

I did it more recently in poor visibility (but no rain or wind) and it was completely different.  The lack of reference as to how far along I was made it feel much more committing.  It was still enjoyable but in a very different way.

In the weather conditions you are talking about I would not even think about it (I would probably be in the climbing wall in Fort William).

If it is good weather then the CMD is doable by an inexperienced group (in the same way that Crib Goch is done by inexperienced people).  It is likely to be an amazing experience.  But, I think you would enjoy it more with more experience.  In the conditions you are forecasting I think it is foolish, likely to be stressful and unenjoyable and could end badly.

I think your thread title really sums it up - you should get your validation from your own (or your group’s) experience and skills.  If you’re unsure about the conditions and your level of experience then I would choose another route.

Not called for, or particularly helpful.

The OP clearly has their head screwed on by having reservations and asking for advice on here.

One of the problems with Lochaber is that there isn't a lot to do on a wet, windy day. Everything is quite big round there. The bad weather options, assuming we're focusing on the hills, are a bit more esoteric. 

If you have transport be prepared to drive north, south, east or west to avoid the worst of it. 

What?? I never accused the OP of not having their head screwed on, so get your facts right!! The OP had already said he/she felt it was stupid of the group to pursue that route giving the forecast and their inexperience and I agree, so I gave him/her several other words they could’ve used instead of stupid. I then went on to give some reasons why in my book I think it’s a stupid idea, which looking at your earlier post are more or less the same, so your contribution must also be unhelpful and abusive🤫.

In low cloud & Poor visibility the route to CMD isn't particularly easy to find either.

Remember that Nevis via Carn Mor Dearg and the arete is well over 5000 ft if ascent so a long day in perfect conditions. That much harder in wind and rain. If you go ahead leave plenty of time and take into consideration the basic fitness of your group. 

If the thunderstorm forecast doesn't go away I wouldn't go anywhere near the top of Ben Nevis, whatever the other weather conditions are. And enough other folk have commented on those conditions, the length and commitment of the route, and that with a novice group. It's biting off a helluva lot with a novice group even in perfect conditions. 

I'd look closely at other options including something nice and low-level if that thunderstorm forecast doesn't shift.

Try reading your first sentence back and thinking about how other people might interpret it without the full benefit of understanding your original train of thought. It's ambiguous who/what you are calling stupid (etc.) and comes across as somewhat angry and undeservedly aggressive.

On a different note... Last time I was up the Ben was in March, we topped out from a route into typical winter summit conditions: full-on wind, snow, and complete whiteout. The temps lower down were hovering around 0 so all our gear was soaked, and despite being dry-treated the ropes froze into stiff cables. We couldn't untie and needed a few minutes to recuperate from the ordeals of the day, so shoulder-flaked some of the rope and used the rest as a nav-aid to keep on a tight bearing to the summit shelter (which was totally filled with rubbish - we bagged up and took what we could). A few minutes later, we were joined by a group of lads from Doncaster who had just done the CMD. They were relatively inexperienced, as evidenced by their choice of route given the conditions, their pac-a-mac jackets, the flat-caps on their heads, and the looks in their eyes. They'd had an absolutely wild time battling on through ~45mph winds, and I got the impression that for some of them this was their first big outing in crampons. I have to say, hats off to them for prevailing! I would have folded much earlier in the day. 

Anyway, just to reiterate what others have said and provide more "validation": the CMD, whilst not technically difficult, is a long and tough route that is very exposed to the weather. Unless the forecast changes, it's not the right route for the day. 

Well your wrong as there was absolutely no malice in my posting, merely agreeing with the OP, then lending my opinion as to why. If you can’t understand that then that’s not my fault. 

It's the effect that counts, not the intent.

not to mention the navigational pitfalls in just getting off the summit in bad weather that have killed people over the years.

I disagree that it is harder than Striding edge but is definitely far far more arduous and accompanied by greater risks from bad weather (much higher altitude, further north, remote, navigation.  It could be said it is a more difficult mountain day overall with more possibility to go wrong.  A more far more testing day than lil ol' Striding Edge on its own.