UKC

Starmer's first move in the impending Scottish May election was to reinforce democratic principle of self determination [as opposed to Conservative high handedness}  whilst stating a Labour policy of Unionism.

I admired that.

I don't  belong to any Scottish political party so I'm an electorate observer of the way things progress. 

I suppose I should add it is a kick off to the next 6 months run up to Scottish Parliamentary election and all that it implies.

But, my own saturation point with Covid 19 and Brexit makes me feel a May Scottish Election  prospect is another  AHHHHHHH!!!!!!

I have to say I voted for Starmer because I believed Labour needed a moderate to bring  it back into contention in the polls. I am closer politically to Jez, but I like Starmer more and more.

I also pray Scotland doesn’t leave the union, unless it takes Northumberland with it.

It would certainly be an interesting situation if an independent Scotland were to thrive within the EU while the rump UK continued to go to shit and bits of England started agitating to jump ship!

There was an MP on Any Questions last night asking why some Scottish people want to leave the UK and become a part of a federalist EU, in seeing it in terms of being a smaller part of a union. I thought he seemed to be overlooking that it was about something else.

It would. How many years do you anticipate waiting before things pan out that way? I think the world will gone Mad Max before that happens myself.

He was an ex-MP, but he had some fairly cogent arguments. (Scotland wants to be independent, but then wants to be part of a larger more bureaucratic union, outside of the UK). The SNP MP, said that it was because the EU treated smaller countries, like Eire, far better than the Westminster government.

London can join Greater Kent

That neatly brings me to a thought I had which is that the Scottish  May election is truly the start of the outline of policies of the next 2024 General election by parties like the Labour party, the lib Dems and the Greens , certainly in relation to Westminster constitutional reform. It can't be other than this.

But it also says something about the immediate situational decisions on covid 19 being used to create a diversion from the fact that independence is a complete consitutional/economic change not just the knee jerk reaction to immediate party political decisions in a crisis, It is crude manipulation to focus on the latter as the thrust of any argument for independence but I fear that is what we will suffer..

Mel Gibson In a leather jacket and a kilt? Now there’s a film to be made

Apologies that was rather ambiguous - I fully expect Scotland to become independent (I would probably vote that way if I was in Scotland). But I think "thriving within the EU" is horribly unreliastic given the economic outlook. We're going to have to recalibrate what "thriving" means - perhaps things like having sewers and a rudimentary judicial system will be enough?

I agree it is a comparison of economic fragilities  but no I don't fully expect anything at the moment  from where I sit in Scotland.

Thing is it would likely take a decade to get membership, possibly longer. Membership would hardly be the route to wealth and prosperity either. Perhaps 2 or 3% on GDP after a decade of harsh austerity. After the Euro crisis there is no way that the EU will be handing out vast quantities of cash any more. I never get why people assume that Scotland would become more productive if it were independent and that GDP growth would be above average. It could just as easily be below. I guess it's the tendency for human nature to take an optimistic view of the future.

FYI an FOI request was made to the Scottish government to see the documents they have on discussions on an independent Scotland joining the EU. When the documents were released every reference to timescales were redacted. I think that tells us what we need to know.

I suspect Scottish membership of the EU could be done in less than 10 years (I was involved to a limited extent in some of the negociations for the 2004, 2007 & 2013 enlargements) but I expect Scottish membership of the EEA &/or EFTA could be agreed much more quickly & would get many of the advantages of the EU

What the discussion shouldn't disintegrate into is a crude Johnson versus Surgeon party political discussion - pandering to the most simplistic political and popular discussion which is essentially diversionary. And given the intensity of Covis 19 as a crisis in people's minds, this is a real possibility that would be distortionary of the deeper, longer term issues and consequencies that need to be at the fore- front of the discussion.

So one scenario is a comparison between the Brexit deal and membership of EEA or EFTA is now part of the parameters of a discussion on independence. There may or may not be huge advantages of one over the other. I agree we are at a stage of an unkown Brexit , but also the discussion in 2014 also has to be re -run in all its essential elements as well- at least I hope so and the discussion is not simplified, I suppose we have that experience to recall.

Another thought is that Covid 19 must be a conditioning factor in the Brexit negotiations since economic conditions are so fragile - so concessions may occur between the two parties now which may not have occurred when the last general election was held.

Also the distribution of EU powers returning to UK will also condition the discussion.

And it looks like another point of consideration is the commitment to 4 nation inclusivity in forming post Brexit Trade Deals and Fishing deals. I suspect resistance to inclusivity  would create a  groundwork for people voting for Scottish independence-  it will be interesting  to see if  Scottish Unionist parties confront this issue strongly and argue for an inclusive federalist type of structure in this new world.