UKC

http://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-matt-hancock-asks-nhs-to-be-ready-to-...

"A breakthrough in COVID-19 vaccinations means there is a "70-80%" chance the UK will be returning to normality by Easter - as long as authorities do not "screw up" distribution of the jab, a top a scientific adviser has said."

So what is your forecast ? 

End of next year or later ?

Forgive my negativity regarding the governments ability, but I'm going from past experience here.  

I think the best I can say is I hope so, but I won't be placing any bets on this one.

TWS

"Will be returning to normality".

Note the use of the future continuous tense. The person making this prediction leaves open the possibility that such a process could last any length of time beyond Easter and could have started at any point before Easter. I.e. in terms of predicting timing, it actually says almost nothing.

If you want to predict an "end" to this process, or what most people would call a moment beyond which normality is reinstated, you need to use the future perfect tense. E.g. I think a normality akin to what existed before the Coronavirus will have returned by mid-2022.

(Though personally, I think a lot of the restrictions in Western countries who will get the vaccine first might start to be lifted next summer.)

Is it not just a matter of procurement and distribution? Surely they can't f*** that up too? 

Famous last words?

Nothing seems beyond that ability.  

Maybe they'll run out of cronies to give the job to?

By next year, we will not be just talking about the Pfizer vaccine. There are many more in the possible pipeline, and as far as I know, most of them also target the envelope spike proteins, which is what that vaccine is based on. It therefore follows that the other vaccines could well be just as useful (though not necessarily so).

So the supply will increase as more vaccines become approved, thence procuring vaccines for this country will become easier, especially since the government has done deals for more vaccines than we require, with different companies. (I am not a government supporter, I'm just going on what has been said in the news over the last several months).

Thus there should be less trouble getting vaccinated heading further into the middle of the new year; BUT we haven't even got this first vaccine through all testing yet.

It's all looking very positive. This plus other vaccines on the way.

I heard an interview with the woman behind the Astra Zeneca vaccine who said they had 1.5 billion doses ready to go the minute testing is complete.

The Pfizer vaccine is made in Belgium, and has to be kept at -80C. What possible disruption to our supply of vaccines will a no deal brexit entail?

Quite easily, they'll try to buy them through a start up procurement company that's been in existence for a month owned by someone they went to school with. 

I wonder if the wife of an old school chum is being bunged a few hundred million as we speak to supply freezers to store the stuff and gloves to handle it?

I think it's a little if. Everyone has known there are vaccines being developed, they have been pre ordered etc.  There is absolutely no excuse for one of the richest most educated nations in the world to mess it up. However.. we all know what will happen!! 

I reckon the cost to equip the new vaccine centres with the needed freezers is between £8m and £20m.  So that leaves most of the £108m for the gloves and hypodermic needle tips...

This one needs to run for a bit longer, so that Tory graft & corruption can ensure that more £££ from the public purse are secured in offshore accounts of the usual suspects. As has been stated many times before, we'd laugh out loud is this level of thinly disguised fraud was taking place in an African or EU country.

Nice visualisation of government pandemic cronyism here (thanks to Tomtom on the other channel for linking it)

https://sophieehill.shinyapps.io/my-little-crony/

Quite mind-boggling, and it only seems to scratch the surface.

For example it doesn't mention Pestfix or Clandeboye.
I guess Clandeboye is the one Wintertree was hinting at above(?)  They're the confectionery wholesaler that was bunged a £108m PPE contract, seemingly at random.

Does mention 'Public First' though.  (They're properly taking the piss with that name aren't they?)  More about them here: https://goodlawproject.org/case/money-for-dominic-cummings-mates/

I'm fortunate that I can afford to donate a few quid to The Good Law Project.  It helps a bit, with the despair and the rage, knowing that I'm making a tiny contribution to pissing on Dominic Cummings's chips in some small way.

Local authorities have been identifying mass vaccination centres and preparing for a few months now. 
 

I’ve personally witnessed a GP surgery taking delivery of two nice new freezers last month. Coincidence? 
 

This has been on the cards for weeks. If they stuff it up I’d be very surprised. 
 

I believe the issues aren’t around the actual doses of vaccines. It’s the syringes and ampules, which are in world shortage - for some reason. 

That is a simply a lack of planning. In a town nearby we have a company that until recently made single shot vodka bottles and the like who have completely switched to vaccine ampulles on a central government contract because some "unelected bureaucrat" had the foresight that such a thing would be needed at some point.

A functioning bureaucracy is a good thing to have in a pandemic!

CB

You can always rely on John Bell to give it to you straight!  He's not constrained by being the CMO or Chief Scientific Advisor and he's too important and smart to ignore.