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Mountain forecasts - who to believe!?!?

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 peebles boy 08 Jan 2013
So, for tomo and the next couple days:

MWIS Freezing level - staying about 900m
MetOffice Freezing Level - staying about 500m

MWIS Windspeeds - light
MetOffice Windspeeds - gales

MWIS Cloud cover - lots of cloud
MetOffice Cloud cover - not a lot of cloud

How can the forecasts be so radically different when (from what I've read on here anyway) they all use the same data???

Either way, I'm off up the Ben tomo...hoping for a combination of both forecasts and looking forward to low freezing levels, light winds and high cloud base!!
 remus Global Crag Moderator 08 Jan 2013
In reply to peebles boy:
> How can the forecasts be so radically different when (from what I've read on here anyway) they all use the same data???

Probably something to do with weather forecasting being a very difficult problem, especially in mountain areas.
Frogger 08 Jan 2013
In reply to peebles boy:

Pick the one that suits your desired activity and hope they are right!
 gordo 08 Jan 2013
went over to pen-y-fan same situation but with bbc and met office it turned out met office was bang on. although bbc weather was desired
 Mark Bull 08 Jan 2013
In reply to peebles boy:

> How can the forecasts be so radically different when (from what I've read on here anyway) they all use the same data???

They do use different data sources: MWIS mainly uses the (free, American) GFS computer model, whereas the Met Office use their own. It is unusual for there to be such poor agreement: the weather seems to be in a finely balanced state at the moment with different models giving very different solutions over the next week or so.



 george mc 08 Jan 2013
In reply to peebles boy:
> So, for tomo and the next couple days:
>
> MWIS Freezing level - staying about 900m
> MetOffice Freezing Level - staying about 500m
>
> MWIS Windspeeds - light
> MetOffice Windspeeds - gales
>
> MWIS Cloud cover - lots of cloud
> MetOffice Cloud cover - not a lot of cloud
>
> How can the forecasts be so radically different when (from what I've read on here anyway) they all use the same data???
>
> Either way, I'm off up the Ben tomo...hoping for a combination of both forecasts and looking forward to low freezing levels, light winds and high cloud base!!

They don't use the same data. Metoffice use their own computer model to base their forecasts on.

MWIS have access to a wider variety of data and computer models from a variety of sources - plus the guys doing the forecasting have a lot of first hand personal knowledge of the hills involved.

At the end of the day though they are all forecasts. The closer forecasts match the more likely they are to accurate.
 Glen 08 Jan 2013
In reply to peebles boy:

The main reason they are so different is that there actually isn't a very well defined freezing level, due to the current anticyclonic conditions.
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