UKC

This is an interesting place.  As a newcomer I've already seen several interesting threads: About inexperienced leaders taking school parties out, asking questions like should the inexprerienced be out on the hills/mountains, and questions about moutain leaders and guides taking out groups.  As someone contemplating my first solo walks (starting out on what I deem is safer territory) I just started to wonder how do you know when you know enough assuming you haven't ever taken any qualifications.

I was taken hill walking the first time (Blencathra) by someone I deemed was an experienced hill walker.  They had no formal qualifications, but had solo hill walked, done courses in map reading and spent time in the TA.  They were also insistent that I (as they did) always carried a rucksack and at least, if not more than the normal recommended 'staying safe on the hills kit'.  Over time I cracked off about 10 Wainwrights - including most of the biggies (minus the 'edge' routes) and within the first few we introduced my kids to the process from about the age of 10 - their Christmas presents were their own kit stuffed rucksacks and their first walk was also Blencathra (that first walk they knocked off about 13 miles by the time we were back to the car park).  They enjoyed it and always came with us and have also bagged most of big Wainwrights as well as tackling summer day walking in the alps and we have skied on piste in def. less than perfect weather, we also had gifts of Mountain leader handbooks and all read these.  Kids are now very early 20's and daughter has called me to tonight to say her and BF are going to check the weather and tackle Snowdon by the most popular tourist route next weekend if and only if the weather gives them a decent window.  It will be her first walk without someone of 'parent' age with her, BF has apparently walked with his parents.   She has texted me to show she has her map, compass and all the safety kit ready.  The kids and I have also walked by ourselves and on one of these I did turn back when I wasn't certain of the weather.  

So I have always been adamant that I would not want to be a member of the 'flip flop walking brigade' and I wouldn't want Mountain Rescue to have to come after me or my group shaking their heads at yet another team that hadn't made the right decisions.  So, back to my inital question, if you have never taken a course (which I will never have time to do) how do you know if you know enough to be safe on the UK hills/mountains - I'm not about to go walking in the snow and neither are the kids, but I have no idea whether I should be acquiesing with her and her BF going up Snowdon next week or even if I should be contemplating solo hiking - so how do you know when you know enough?

NB.  A link to the best place for them to get current summit conditions would be most welcome

As Clint famously said "A man's got to know his limitations."

I learnt mine from being taken out by my parents when I was at Primary school, and my own experiences since.

Two key things for me are, knowing how much you've got left in your body, and being aware of where you are and knowing reasonably safe escape routes if things turn a bit rough. Studying maps for hours beforehand helps with the latter.

Oh aye, never been rescued! I couldn't handle the shame 😀

https://www.snowdonia.gov.wales/visiting/walking/ground-conditions
 

But note it’s only updated every three days.

That idea was the one that immediately sprang to my mind. Be honest with yourself about your experience.

Know how to find your way in the terrain. Know how to look after yourself. Know what to do if things go wrong. Know when to back off; recognise your limits.

Good judgement comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement.

The corollary is that the level of competence required to get you out of a situation is greater than that required to put you in it.

Have some energy, skill and resources (clothing, food) in reserve, and never feel bad if you decide to turn back.

That's a good point...

I've always had the ability to see the future. Some might say I indulge in catastrophic thinking... That has generally kept me out of trouble. It has probably had a limiting effect on my experiences too...

"Experience is the sum total of near misses"...

That first point is very true and the second point is probably what causes most emergency service call outs!  So it's a question of making sure that the level of competence required to overcome a forseeable situation always exists.  The hardest bit is that experience comes from bad judgement.  That's OK when it doesn't really matter.  You burn a cake once, so you've wasted a few ingredients, but in the future you bake perfect cakes by taking them out 10 minutes earlier.  No one really suffers and the sparrows get a treat that day.  On the hills I'd just as soon not gain experience by poor judgement as it can be life threatening which requires much more imagination to think through scenarios up front.  

Hence, me suddenly considering time of year for daughter, then going: mountain, high, even in the uk - snow underfoot?  How to find out and updating the post above.  Thanks for the links   I doubt she had considered the possibility of snow underfoot.  Needless to say she will curtail the trip if it seems there is snow at the top.

As others have said, you (and the kids) need to understand your limitations, but not underestimate your experience.

Your original post mentioned giving the kids ML handbooks for Christmas, and also this:

The fact your daughter is thinking about weather windows makes me think she's pretty savvy anyway.

I was a bit perturbed by this:

With respect, your daughter is an adult, it's her call. Also there is no way you shouldn't contemplate solo hiking. Start off somewhere familiar, tell people where you're going, use the opportunity to hone your skills, make your own decisions. The only way to 'know' if you know enough is to 'do'.

You can take all the courses you want, carry a massive rucksack with more safety kit than you'll ever need, but it's all academic unless you go out and do it.

I don't mean do some solo ascent of the Eiger, but just go for a walk, well within your comfort zone and risk appetite. See how it goes, see how you feel, and if you're getting worried turn back, which you've done before with the kids.

If you enjoyed it, do it again. Maybe, if you feel like it, go a bit further, or maybe not - it's your decision so trust your instincts. Above all enjoy it.

That's an over-simplification. Hopefully, people learn from bad judgements. But you can learn from good judgements, too.

Dynamic risk assessment is what your brain should be doing all the time; checking the terrain isn't getting dangerously beyond your capabilities. Checking for hazards around you.

Winter risk assessment skills are certainly the hardest to pick up by simply walking; avalanche assessment can't really be learnt by observation. Understanding of cornices can be developed by observation, if you're lucky to see them from below first, and recognise the significance of an overhanging ledge of snow, and what it might mean if you were walking up along that ridge...

Dealing with walking in different types of snow can be learnt by experiment and practice in relatively benign locations.

Recognising that situations change over a day can be learnt by good observation; e.g. a route might ice up between ascent and descent. If you can observe those changes, and understand their significance, you can learn to think about their consequences for the future.

Never stop observing. Never stop thinking. Never stop learning.

Years spent skiing (the kids in particular have skied since they were about 4) has helped with snow hazard awareness - though as you say diagnosis is more difficult.  I have strapped avalanche bleeps on the kids since they were old enough to want to ski the piste (and those often well run bumpy edges just a few metres off it) without me and we have practised using them in snowy fields.  We have also watched many avalanche awareness/dealing with videos and they have been taken on the odd excursion off piste with a guide with avalanche kit.  That's why she won't go up if there is enough to snow around to look iffy.  

Daughter keeps telling me that she is mother's daughter and has been raised sensible and done here homework.  I guess all I can do is to give her a list of things to check and let her make her own call as @ridge says she is an adult and will learn by experience.  At least when she does go up I know she will be suitably equipped for the conditions as I know she won't attempt snow as she doesn't have the gear for it.

The MWIS website can be useful for weather updates too: https://www.mwis.org.uk/ 

in my case by trial and constant belief in the possibility of error.  So far the experiments have been largely successful

Attitude is very very important.  I find that it is never safe to think that you know enough or are "safe".  You should have the attitude of always trying to improve knowledge and skills  (I'll be getting my state pension soon unless one of my experiments fails before then)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incident_pit

Often knowing you don't know enough, after a period of thinking you do is the start of a better understanding.

Have a look at the dunning-kruger-wiggle

https://www.trainingpeaks.com/coach-blog/where-are-you-on-the-dunning-kruge...

I agree with your general point but I was reading something recently about how the DK effect is often misrepresented as the incompetent rating their competence as very high. Apparently the original experiment shows the less competent slightly over rating their performance rather than thinking they are brilliant.

I think it's easy to overanalyse the "what do I need to know"  thing. 

Being warm, especially when wet, so plenty of layers.

Not getting lost - not usually a problem on well worn paths on Snowdon (the worst that's likely to happen is following the wrong path off and ending up in the wrong valley - we've all got 'friends' who've done that, ahem).

Being fit enough and not going to exhaustion.

I always found it easier to relate to the four stages of competence:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_stages_of_competence

I tend to not mind so much once I reach consciously competent, but it's the very process of deciding when I'm there that is important esp. when there is a fair amount at stake.

also paying attention to detail, particularly in winter

I think you are making a mistake in thinking in absolutes like 'there' or 'enough'. You will never know 'enough' to deal with ANY situation that may arise. But you can know 'enough' to deal with the likely situations in your context-of-choice. The trick is to pick the context based on what your current level of competence and your attitude to risk. If you are too risk-averse you'll learn very little - however many books you read. Real learning comes from getting out there, putting yourself in what should reasonably be manageable situations, and learning from them. And the next time out, you know a bit more, you have a bit more experience and you can 'push the boat out' a little bit further. That process goes on till the day you die - hopefully in bed. Life is all about learning and developing - there is no 'destination' there is only the 'journey'.

As for Snowdon, there's nothing special about it. There are easier walks like round Llyn Idwal or harder walk in Scotland. If you are unsure whether you are competent enough, then do something a bit easier. But whatever you do, do something (beyond reading a book or thinking, planning...). That's how you learn. Do that a few times and Snowdon won't seem so daunting and you'll start looking forward to greater challenges because you'll know how to approach them.

An an aside, one of the things I've somewhat despaired of in our education system, is that it teaches you plenty of facts and some skills, but never the most important skill of all: how to 'learn' effectively. It's like that old adage: "Give a man a fish (an education) and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish (how to self-learn effectively) and you feed him for a lifetime".

Do you think these two knew enough? They're personal trainers after all...  https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/mans-proposal-snowdon-goes-horribly-231269...

I think it was Hamish Brown who defined experience as the sum of near misses.

Without a scrap of instruction I've soloed all the Munros 3 times (and 13 viertausanders in the Alps), without ever coming close to needing a rescue. With a modicum of fitness and common sense your kids will be fine.

I'm an experienced climber but I wouldn't have a clue about what a personal trainer does.

Don't be so sure this isn't happening, there has been a big push in education to teach pupils to be effective learners. It's one of the core principles of the much maligned Curriculum for Excellence in Scotland.

The trouble is that it's very difficult to teach and pupils seem to either grasp it intuitively or be too immature to grasp it at all while at school although I'm sure some come to an understanding of it later.

Lifelong learning is one focus of the course we teach (University. It is not explicitly examined, although a big part of clinical formative learning. This is built upon the students learning what kind of learner they are and the sobering fact that the subject could not be taught completely in a couple of decades, and is always changing. The earlier students prefer the facts -  just the facts, but about 12-18 months before qualification you see the motivation change from passing exams to being a clinician, that is a key point for many of them and where they discover themselves and their target job.

I know this is niche, but it is the motivation and enough time, not just a methodology which makes people go and look things up and develop.

Agreed - you can't take such things too seriously.

I'm really glad to hear this - my experience (via my kids) is from a decade or two ago. I appreciate that it's a hard thing to teach - as SouthernSteve said, it's as much about self-motivation and maturity as methodology and I would hate to see it reduced to just a set of memory trick (or some such irrelevancies).

Perhaps it's so obvious that no one has mentioned it, but it is February, and despite this winter having been appalling in terms of snow and ice south of Scotland (and not good there either), this is still the most likely time for Snowdon to be in winter conditions.

Even the Llanberis path has some dangers in winter conditions: https://www.ukhillwalking.com/articles/features/recent_deaths_on_snowdon-16...  if there is snow and ice there and you slip, people without an ice axe and knowledge of how to use it, have fallen to their deaths. It is horrible to say, but it has happened a number of times over the decades. Of course every year tens of thousands of punters without much idea of what they are doing walk up and down Snowdon without incident, but some hurt themselves and sadly a few die. I was last on Snowdon on the 7th Jan and we watched from across the cwm a complex rescue of a walker who had slipped on the main path down to Pen -y-Pass involving a coastguard helicopter and a significant number of mountain rescue team members.

You can see a summit forecast for Snowdon https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcmjghxpx#?date=2022-02-20 as well as for other lower summits around Snowdonia that will give you some idea of how conditions develop over the next week. The met office also has good forecasts for the mountain areas at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/mountain MWIS Snowdonia forecasts are at: https://www.mwis.org.uk/forecasts/english-and-welsh/snowdonia-national-park

If there is snow and ice on the mountain next weekend, I don't think your daughter and boyfriend should go up unless they have an ice axe and crampons/micro-spikes each and at least some notion of what to do with them. I used to be far more laissez faire about these things, but you see people in the snow, on Snowdon in particular, slipping around in crap shoes, without decent walking clothing, having walked past eff off big signs in the carparks saying "DANGER!!!! WINTER CONDITIONS ON THE MOUNTAIN!!! Don't go on without proper equipment" in English and Welsh and probably some other languages too. I don't get how the volunteers in the MRTs ruin another night at home with their families or doing their actual jobs to go and fetch people who really have no excuse to not know better, down off the hill. On most of my recent days out on popular hills like Snowdon or Helvellyn in winter when the tops have been in cloud so you can't see much, I've had people ask me which is the way "down". Normally while looking at Google maps on their phones. Some lads asked me this on Helvellyn (in the snow, in the cloud) at the end of Nov. they had thought to bring a blue tooth speaker clipped to one of their rucksacks so they had some bangin' choons to hike to, but seemingly not a map or compass. I asked them where they had come from and they said "the car park". A few more questions led me to THINK I knew which car-park and I could point them in that direction, although visibility was about 50 mtrs, so I hope they found the path sooner rather than later.

I always work on the principle 'The more I know about something, the more I realise how little I know about that topic' Stops me getting complacent.

John

User name checks out🙂

Learning how to navigate properly seems wise (something I'm yet to do). I guess asking 'What if?' a lot could go a long way, in that wondering about not knowing enough, is going to make you more likely to not end up in situations where you're out of your depth, to do with how obvious paths are, and what you might do if the weather changed and visibility was very poor. 

After trailing around after my Dad and family friends over mountains while growing up  and into adulthood ( ), I seem to know how to stay warm and with enough in the tank, and to recognise when I'm at a low ebb, but I couldn't navigate my way around any mountains. I think that one is always learning, and the best way to be in a pickle might be to keep working at learning more (and practicing navigating). 

Knowing when one doesn't know enough (or being under the impression of not knowing enough) is possibly one of the more skin saving perspectives that one can have...

Yes, this was the realisation I came to soon after she said they were looking at next weekend.  I had already re-warned her that the temperture up top could be much colder than the carpark and then I went via 'cold, you stupid woman, it's ruddy February - the middle of winter - you've been watching the weather for the last couple of days and it's been snowing in many higher places Snowdon is a montain and could easily have deep snow up top'.  Daughter has been suitably warned to check for snow and esp. conditions at the summit - she is already looking at alternative lower routes in the area that she could do instead - apparently plan B! and I have passed on the links above for weather forecasts etc.  She has also just read about the couple and the proposal fiasco which will make her think hard too.

I think that learning to navigate is the key to hill freedom Timmd, and if people can be bothered to do that, then the other factors of adequately clothing yourself just follow suite. It’s too easy to go and buy all the clobber and identify a route. 

There are undoubtedly navigators out there that knock what our family learned to do into a cocked hat.  However, I love OS maps and never visit an area on any UK holiday without bringing the relevant OS 1:25000 with me (TBH I think our OS mapping system must be the envy of the world - I've never been to another country and found maps as good).  In terms of skill level we tend to follow marked and/or well trodden routes and can all follow a route on a map (that we have previously planned) during the day when we can see where we are going.  We have Silva Explorer compasses and can all orient the map, compensate for magnetic north, take a bearing and place the compass on the map to determine the direction of travel.  Which is why I deam the weather forecast so important.  Note the comment 'when we can see where we are going'  I know my limitations.  I've been skiing in white out conditions and in the fog and even on highly familiar pistes I've been in situations where it hasn't been possible to know if you were still moving or not, or to know where you were on the piste or to see the ground in front of my skis.  I don't like such conditions (hate would be a better word) and only ski through them to reach the security of the closest bar and ultimately lift down.  Hence, I know how disorientating lack of sight can be.  I wouldn't hike if conditions looked set to remove my visible points of reference.  Yes, I know it should be possible to orient the map and follow the direction of the arrow of the compass for a given length of time at a certain speed and have a fair idea of where you are even if you can't see around you, but I am not that confident of my skills.  If I had weather close in or get dark I would stop before I lost all idea of where I was on the map and rely on the contents of my well provisioned rucksack to stay safe even if it meant spending an uncomfortable night on the hill in an orange sack.  However, something would have needed to severely wrong with the planning before I found myself in such a situation anyhow.  These days I guess there is also a chance that a mobile phone and GPS might help too,  Additionally, although I understand the importance of a map and compass it seemed daft not to take every precaution if I could afford to do so, so although I don't have one of these GPS gadgets which shows the full blown maps etc. on a screen, I do carry an old Garmin etrex and spare batteries and which within 5 minutes of switching it on will give me a OS grid reference to within 3 square metres if I am ever baffled or have truly lost my place on the paper map.  If I'm following a route that it will take, I do put it into the system, but it's only there as a belt and braces gizmo and I don't turn it on if I don't need to.  That might sound a bit daft, but I see no sense in walking around with my nose in a navigation computer and not enjoying what I've gone to see.

How do you know when you know enough?

When you know enough to ensure both your own safety and/or anyone you are with under any likely conditions or circumstances you may to come across.

Getting an ML qualification is another way.

That'll be never, then.  Because you can NEVER "ensure safety", anywhere, anytime

Knowing when to give up and go home is the single hardest decision to make.  Often made harder by how far we have traveled to the mountains and how short of a window we have from the day to day tasks to achieve our goals. 

Personally I do a mini risk assessment in my head when I get myself into a situation, its something I generally do subconsciously, but sometimes I say it out loud to my partner as either a discussion point or for there experience - for example two totally made up situations:

No.1

• Whats the hazard: That icey section of path right at the top of the miners track, a fall would be potentially very severe.  
• Whats the likelihood: Slim chance of something happening as I have the right equipment and know how to use it, I have watched people go ahead of me, I have done it before etc. 
• What am I going to do: I am going to ask my partner (if I have one) if they agree and are happy to continue and then carry on over the section. If not turn around. 

 No.2 

• Whats the hazard: I am at Sty Head at 2pm in November trying to decide if I should carry on my route up Scafell or go back home? 
• Whats the likelihood: Significant risk.  Its going to get dark soon, I don't know the area that well so navigation is going to be difficult (made worse by the dark) and weather is variable at this time of year.  
• What am I going to do: I will decide its unsafe and turn around returning with more time and energy another day. OR I will say that I will carry on as I have all the right equipment, I know how to use it, the person(s) I am with are experienced and know the area so that that we would be able to successfully navigate off the summit in darkness. 

I think this part of your post probably warrants further discussion:

I'd consider doing some walks in the dark in a 'safe' location, maybe a lower hill where if you walk down hill in any direction you'll hit a clear track that you can walk off along. Use that to work on moving in the dark, (which is completely different to moving in daylight). You also state you carry an etrex, so you could use that to confirm your actual position on the map every few minutes.

I have spent an unplanned night out in bad weather in December, (I had got to the point of trying to make the terrain fit where I thought I was on the map, so had to admit I was lost), and it is not a pleasant experience.

Personally, if I knew my current position, I would prioritise getting off the hill, no matter how slowly and deliberately, well above stopping and waiting it out. It doesn't matter how good your kit and 'provisions' are, you start getting cold very quickly when you stop, and if conditions worsen things could get very serious. 
 

My advice would be to work on navigation as a priority.

Hi Ridge, this is well worth further thinking about and experimentation as you suggest - thanks for the idea, I can even do it locally.  I wasn't going to admit to owning the etrex as that is tantamount to admitting to all the gear and little idea and there has only been one occasion where I leant on it.  I feel a bit of failure if I can't work things out.  On that occasion a lower walk we were following crossed a field and encountered a dry stone wall the obvious path ran out of a gate further along it and headed off into woods.  It was one of those locations where loads of lines came together on the OS and was very difficult to sort out.  Following the obvious path for a couple of hundred metres into the wood it soon became obvious was incorrect when we encountered a steep ravine, retracing our steps to the gate and nothing became clear.  Following a distinct period of bafflement when I suspected we would need to retrace our steps and find the closest road and abandon the walk, I remembered the etrex was in the bag and that about 3 weeks previously I had scrammed several possible walks onto.  One of these being the right one.  Turning it on we stood at the gate with the etrex and it almost pointed back over our shoulders, further bafflement until I decided it had to mean walking back down the other side of the dry stone wall that we had just followed.  i.e. virtually backtracking the route which was why it wasn't clear on the OS map, just on the opposite side of the wall, literally only a couple of metres from where we had just come along back in the opposite direction.  Although the route was clearly little used and difficult to walk along It turned out to be correct - the path swung away from the wall after about 500m and we could see where we were on the map again.  On that occasion I was glad I had it with me, but it didn't do my confidence any good to need to use it.  Part of me thinks, well if such a thing that can tell me where I am on the map exists I'd be mad to not to take it with me if I own one, then the other part of me thinks that I shouldn't be out there if I'd rather take the electronic gubbins with me just as belt and braces.  The fact that I can still recall the incident reinforces my embarrassment at being that inept I needed it - even just that once.  I wonder if the access to such devices does diminish confidence in our abilities and if we should take them with us.   As I noted above it's not a fancy one and doesn't have a map on the screen, but there is listing for lat and long and OS map reference that I can use to reinforce map position - and therefore then follow the map and compass from.  However, I'd hate to have to rely on it when normally I can look at the map and know where I am esp. as I like to follow marked routes and footpaths anyway.

It used to be that 'novices' joined a mountaineering club and learned the ropes (quite literally) from going out with the experienced club members. But clubs are not fashionable anymore it seems - although there are many about. The trend for 'going on a course' for everything seems to have come about in the last 20 years or so. But a course is no substitute for experience at the end of the day - they just give you some basic tools.

As for your daughter and her BF - it sounds as though you have given her a decent grounding in the hills during her childhood years and she is clear that her outing will only be undertaken in benign condtions and she has done all the right things to prepare for the outing. You need to accept that she is a now grown woman perfectly capable of making up her own mind about her and BF's abilities and it seems rather condescending of you to feel "I should be acquiesing with her and her BF going up Snowdon next week". She certainly does not sound from your commetns to be all gung-ho - on the contrary. So leave her to it, support her don't discourage, and be pleased that when they have a great trip out that is another step on her way to becoming more experienced person

How do I know I know enough?

When I get bored. If I'm not learning, what's the point.

I'm probably not the best example to be fair, my first roped climb was a solo up a slab route in Portishead quarry using a figure of eight. Rope and equipment being purchased the day before. I did pick up a how to rock climb book as well, but this only had about 60 pages, none of which covered rope soloing, funnily enough. 

LOL!  She is def. her own person, she will make her own decision whether I am with or against it and I guess I am proud of her.  She does know enough to make up her own mind, but it's not easy when they fly the nest and you have to let them do their own thing.  She tells me she is her mother's daughter and I guess that she is and consequently will make the right decisions.  At least I know she has all she will need to take with her.  At least two of them are going together unlike me who is contemplating a solo trip with camping.  Well when the kids start holidaying without you I thought I could holiday by myself without feeling guilty that I've left them behind!  

Funny you should mention courses - I nearly booked one the other night, but they didn't come cheap.  So I'm currently working on lots of research and gentle first trip ideas.

As has been said before in this thread, you’ll never know enough, and it’s the bit/s that you didn’t know that go wrong and in places like mountains it can go wrong quickly with serious consequences. The skill is knowing how and when to implement the knowledge you have already amassed. Every day is a learning day.

For me the most important things you need to know before even starting are:

1/ Be honest with yourself throughout.

2/ Your general level of fitness and what you realistically expect from it.(this forms part of your planning before venturing out)

3/ Your ability to know when you’re approaching your limits(always leave something in the tank, this applies whilst you’re out and will depend on factors such as weather, conditions under foot. Factors you can’t take into account during initial planning).

4/ How to use a map and compass, at the very least, how to orient a map, take a bearing both on and off the map and being able to gauge your approx location at any given time.

5/ Knowing when to admit defeat and head home to return another day.

Once you have the above you can then set yourself realistic objectives for every day out you do, like extending the distance or height, going into more remote areas, less than prefect weather conditions(don’t recommend going out in storms). Deciding what bits of kit you can leave behind and what you can’t(you don’t want to carrying 30kg of kit for a day out, unless you absolutely need to).

Regards courses, I’ve found that there are very few courses for absolute beginners, with all the courses I’ve done requiring to have some sort of knowledge of the course content beforehand. Only way to get that is by reading books, watching online tutorials or best of all try to partner up with someone or a group locally. I’m sure there will be plenty of people on here that will be willing to help if you’re ever in their area. 

You just get on with it in a reflective way, building up your skills as you go. Never done a 15 mile walk before? Then have a try before you do a 25 mile walk. Struggle to read a map in summer in the Lakes? Then maybe improve before you attempt Ben Macdui in a whiteout. Done a lot of grade 2 scrambles and fancy a grade 3? Crack on, but pick a good weather day and think about how you will retreat as you go. Wondering about that well-protected e2? Get on it if you've some quality E1s under your belt and a good belayer. It's nae brain science... It's just about trying things without being reckless. And sod the armchair critics...

The trouble is when you have people who don't want to think about what they're doing, they just want to get the t-shirt as quickly as possible with minimal effort or focus.

Your daughter and her party will be fine. They've had good training - well done.

They need to get out there and make some mistakes in order to learn. They will never know enough. Now you need to let them fly.

Sit at home, and wait for the adventure stories.

Well apparently they tried this morning.  About 2/3rd of the way up they decided to turn around after very black and threatening clouds started appearing over the summit and by all accounts are now spending the afternoon in Betws-y-coed via Swallow falls.  According to the met office link above it looks like a 50%+ chance of snow at the Snowdon summit this afternoon 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcmjghxpx#?date=2022-03-14

Maybe they did the right thing.

Exactly. 

Yes, experience comes from bad judgements but not every bad judgement has to be a disaster, just an experience where the pre-conceived expectation didn't meet with reality and which might cause you to adjust your expectations in the future. i.e you looked at the forecast and thought you could beat the inbound rain, but didn't. Or you thought that VS should be well within your grade but in fact turned out to be a bit of a push. Or you thought that the 20 mile hill day would be a donder yet in fact turned out to give you sore knees and a massive appetite. Etc, etc, etc...

Experience also comes from good judgements not just bad. In my opinion you also need common sense and a bit of intelligence or you wouldn’t be able to differentiate between good and bad judgements. At the end of every trip out, have a reassessment of what you did, why you did it and could you have done it better another way. 

When you think you know enough, that's when you know you don't know enough.

Like a kid who has just passed their driving test!