UKC

The dam has been breached, presumably by Russian demolition charges. It supplies water for irrigation, cooling the Zaporozhye nuclear plant and Crimea.

How does it's destruction benefit Russia or Ukraine? How reliant on it's water is Crimea? Are the Russians expecting to lose that badly?

E2A link https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/06/russia-ukraine-war-live-...

I’d hold off assuming it was blown up or that it was deliberate.  It sounds like Russia had been running it exceptionally high recently so it could be failure.  Or accidental detonation of mines placed on/in it.  Almost certainly a consequence of the Russian invasion and therefore blame on Russia.

I believe there is an alternative supply over pipes carried by the Kerch Straight bridge, but it’s hard to imagine they have a comparable supply rate and not many people think the bridge will continue to exist for much longer.

Close to a tipping point where I’ll be surprised if dictatorial Russia *survives*.  

> cooling the Zaporozhye nuclear plant

I’m hoping Si dH will be along to tell us how long it would need water cooling for after a scram.  If they keep high volume diesel powered pumps on site it’s hard to imaging e they’ve not been looted. It was commented on the “drought” thread that we’re stuck under continual prevailing easterlies.  I was having a chat with the chief scientist of another company we share a building with the other month on his choice of sodium iodide for the emergency cupboard over mine of potassium iodate.  Long may they go unopened.  Winds from that region currently seem to be heading to Turkey.  

it sounds like among other things it was a rare surviving crossing point?

Easily defended I'd have thought 

I mean, another view would be that they ran it so high because they were going to blow it. If they can't have Crimea, destroy it all on the way out?

I was looking into this the other day. I got as far as walking into Boots, but they didn't sell anything of that description.

Plenty online such as: https://www.healthpharm.co.uk/products/life-extension-potassium-iodide-tabl...

But you just don't know what you're buying. Where did you find your emergency supplies?

Sure - you can look at it almost any way you like.  Which is why it's not worth jumping to conclusions other than that Russia is utterly to blame.

In reply to montyjohn:

Sigma Aldrich.  It's the only radiological emergency kit I have -  not full blown preppier with a bunker and all that... 

Destruction at the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is not a coincidence. Well it might be, but seems unlikely.

Russia adopts a scorched earth policy even when advancing (see Mariupol & Bakhmut) so maybe they are expecting to lose that badly. If Russia did it, it does mean they have given up on Crimean agriculture. It doesn't mean they've given up on Sevastopol as a warm water port for the Russian navy.

Benefit for Russia - none (it's pure spite) or marginal - prevents Ukrainian offensive further south. Although I don't think Ukraine could plausibly be expected to build enough bridges to supply an advance on the other side of the Dnipro River. Deprives Ukraine of some hydroelectric power.

Benefit for Ukraine - deprive Crimea of water reducing Russian motivation to retain Crimea. 

Russia activating a Russian plan for scorched (flooded) earth seems more likely than Ukraine special forces implementing a Russian plan for scorched earth on Ukrainian territory.

I've read the nuclear power plant hasn't been producing power since Sept 2022 so the reactors and fuel storage ponds don't consume much water for cooling.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal

"Ukraine shut down the canal in 2014 soon after Russia annexed Crimea. Russia restored the flow of water in March 2022 during the Russian invasion of Ukraine."

"These official statistics contrast with reports of a massive shrinkage in the area under cultivation in Crimea, from 130,000 hectares in 2013 to just 14,000 in 2017,[13] and an empty canal and a nearly dry reservoir resulting in widespread water shortages,[14][15][6] with water only being available for three to five hours a day in 2021.[15] That same year, the New York Times cited senior American officials as stating that securing Crimea's water supply could be an objective of a possible incursion by Russia into Ukraine.[16][6]

On 24 February 2022, the first day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian troops advancing from Crimea established control over the North Crimean Canal.[17] The Head of the Republic of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, told local authorities to prepare the canal to receive water.[18][19] Two days later, Russian forces used explosives to destroy the dam that had been blocking the flow since 2014, and water supply resumed.[20][1]

On the morning of 6 June 2023, a significant portion of the dam was destroyed releasing a large amount of water downstream; this is the source of the water for the canal.[21][22]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaporizhzhia_Nuclear_Power_Plant

"The plant continued to be operated by Ukrainian staff, under Russian control,[10] until 11 September 2022, when the sixth, and last, reactor was disconnected, and the plant entered cold shut down.[11]"

Thanks. The only kit I have is duct tape. I figured if nothing else, taping up window and door draughts is better than nothing. 

I'd say this is fanciful.  A dam failing (exceptionally rare anyway) at the exact moment an offensive starts in the vicinity isn't what's happened.

Probably also worth pointing out that the dam doesn't appear to hold back much water pressure so I would be surprised that running the dam full would overwhelm it.

What I would like to know is the true reason for not acknowledging who sabotaged it. My guess is there's some commando style groups on both sides that could be responsible but each side would rather keep those groups a secret.

So we may never know.

You say “exceptionally rare” but most dams haven’t been subject to multiple bombing over the last 16 months - as this one has - and haven’t been deliberately mismanaged over the last year including reports of over topping - as this one has.

Mistreat and mismanage a dam and all best are off.  I’m not saying that it was an accident, just that the publicly available evidence doesn’t yet paint a compelling picture any which way.  Some assumptions are more attractive than others but they’re still assumptions. For now.  I wouldn’t be at all surprised to find it’s deliberate, but I’ll hold of jumping to conclusions.  As I said Russia carries the blame regardless.

Absolute humanitarian disaster especially for people on the Russian controlled side.  

In reply to montyjon:

Unless overtopped and breached from the top down?  

Looking on google maps the plant appears to have its own cooling reservoir, isolated from the main reservoir. If its on cold shut down, the cooling requirements are minimal, the main concern is the fuel storage ponds, as the the reactor is effectively a sealed unit.

Diesel engines are usually for auxiliary power gensets powering multiple (primary/secondary) electric pumps.

Being forced to blow major infrastructure in the face of a Ukrainian counter offensive is terrible optics when the message to the home audience is still "The mighty Russian army is winning".

Easy surely if you control information as the Kremlin does. "Evil terrorist Ukraine attempts to kill Russians by blowing up dam. All thwarted. All the more reason to control these pesky scoundrels"

Here we go

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1666036183514722305?t=A1nrlML6mkDstoWB-...

Advocating indiscriminate destruction on Ukraine is perhaps the primary message of Russian domestic propaganda, it's good optics by that standard.

The river it's now flooding effectively blocks any down stream Ukraine offensive and that's not considering the other downsides already mentioned. 

Good to see the Soviet engineers who designed the ZNPP had a serious ‘what if’ moment and decided to build a separate cooling reservoir just in case the Kakhovka dam ever failed.

Hopefully, it will be enough to keep things under control and the Russians  aren’t so stupid as to damage any safety critical systems at the plant.

https://www.energoatom.com.ua/app-eng/eng-0606231.html

On the other hand, perhaps there could be a problem if the water supply to the cooling reservoir is damaged.

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/iaea-director-general-stateme...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/06/nova-kakhovka-ukraine-dam-col...

As one post says, don't believe anything until the Russians deny it. Didn't take them long did it ?

Whilst I agree in principle that one should keep an open mind:

1. As has previously been commented, the height held back by this dam isn't that much - unless Soviet engineering practice was to use a safety factor of 1.0001x rather than the usual 3x or more, I wouldn't have expected slightly higher water levels to be enough for such catastrophic effects.

2. Back in November 2022, the Russians blew up the road at the Eastern end of the dam. In subsequent pictures, you can see water flowing over an open slipway. Presumably, that would limit how high the water level could be.

3. Russians had publicly discussed blowing the dam as a means to block a Ukrainian offensive and said they had placed demolition charges.

4. Initial Russian claims were that Ukrainian shelling was to blame. A 155mm shell carries about 7kg of explosive. The Dambuster's bouncing Upkeep bombs carried 3 tons and, even so, needed to be against the face of the dam at depth to be effective. Demolition charges inside the structure seem a more likely cause.

5. If it was demolition charges, the breach is near the Russian controlled bank, with easy access from there and difficult access from the Ukrainian controlled side.

6. The Russians have blown up several other dams.

7. In the short term (just as the Ukrainian offensive may be starting), whilst this inundates  Russian defences, this benefits Russia more by making the downstream areas impassible. It will be a long time before that waterlogged ground, off-road, is ok for 70 ton Leopards and Challengers.

I'm sure there are other bits of circumstantial evidence that I've not thought of. Nothing to "paint a compelling picture" though.

At the risk of repeating myself, unless the water over-toped part of the damaged dam and scoured it from above.  The top of the dam has been subject to repeated attacks over the last year or so.  There are satellite photographs apparently showing parts of the top side structure apparently crumbling away in the days before the breach.  This is a dam that has been mistreated badly.  You don't have to look very hard to find examples of other failures that started with overtopping, not pressure of water.  But once there's a scoured channel, it doesn't take much pressure to create a flow to expand it.

But they weren't attacking a structure with lots of sluices that had suffered extensive damage to its top side and had apparently been overtopped.

The circumstantial evidence is compelling, but it is what it is and no more.  As I've said before, whatever the cause of this - including deliberate negligence and mismanagement by the Russian forces - the blame for this lies unquestionably with Russia.

Based on circumstantial evidence, it probably was Russia.  Even if it wasn't, it's entirely the fault of Russia and its hostile actions.  

Just horrific to consider the implications from the on-the-ground reports.  

From what I can find, overtopping is a serious risk for earth dams but this was a concrete dam. I suppose we should never say never but I'll be amazed if this wasn't the result of Russian demolition charges.

Well maintained concrete, anyhow.  Lots of sluices as well.  

I’m sure we’ll find out one day.  Nine months after the Nordstream explosions the wind has changed again on that one today.  I just rankle at the number of outlets jumping to a definitive conclusion on circumstantial evidence.  Russia are to blame regardless but when wrong conclusions get jumped to it creates leeway for their disinformation and blame deflecting strategies.

Today I've heard the dam's capacity was 18 million litres, 18 million cubic meters and 18 cubic km. 

Innumerable journalists are innumerate. Well at least a couple of them.

Wiki says 33 cubic km.

It's reminiscent of Saddam blowing up the Kuwaiti oil wells. A bully's (and loser's) act of desperation to inflict as much pain as possible before withdrawal of troops.

If Russia is directly responsible for the destruction of the dam, maybe it will be a similar prelude to a withdrawal?

Why oh why, cant they use standard units? An area the size of Wales or the Isle of White are units of measurement we can all relate to. And whatever happened to double decker buses, when used to indicate scale? I thought taking back control, would get rid of this EU imposed km nonsense.

I believe the 'olympic size swimming pool' is the official unit of measure for large bodies of water.

I read 3 times the volume of Loch Ness (Britain's largest lake), seems a reasonable comparison (if correct)

or three times the volume of all the lakes in England and Wales combined if being reported by the SNP

The dam was also blown-up by the predecessors to the KGB back in August 1941, as the Germans advanced through Ukraine - resulting in a horrific but somewhat forgotten tragedy.

There's a little archive footage of the 1941 sabotage in this article from 2013:

https://www.rferl.org/a/european-remembrance-day-ukraine-little-known-ww2-t...

From that very article its also possible to draw some more parallels with this event, "...a number of historians reject such claims, insisting that the operation was poorly timed and that Nazi troops had no immediate plans to seize the city."

Especially as ISW is reporting that all areas where there have been indications of an intensification in fighting are far removed from the Zaporizhzhya area.

There were deaths in Israel in the first Gulf War when Iraq fired Scuds at them and some people presumed they'd have chemical or biological loads on them so sealed their flats up so air tight they suffocated. So go easy on the duck tape unless you're absolutely certain!

In my neck of the woods, Sydney Harbour is the standard unit of measure for largish volumes of water.

Gas masks that hadn't had some seal that protects the filter removed before use.

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1991-01-18-mn-416-story.html

I think it would take a long time (tens of hours or days) to suffocate in a flat and probably never as sealing wouldn't be that good.

https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/how-long-can-one-live-in-a-sealed-roo...

eesh.

Maybe duct tape and a carbon dioxide monitor. I probably should have one anyway. I do worry about CO2 levels in the house in winter when the gas cooker is fired up for long periods.

Regardless of who’s to blame (Russia, obviously) Russia are not letting humanitarian agencies help out in the occupied eastern bank and have continued to shell the area today. 

Superb posts again and with yet another ace inadvertent eggcorn.

I'd nearly always back your posts in a 'best bets' strategy

Just too much speculation and jumping to conclusions.... those earlier satellite images of problems on the dam do need explaining.

Russia are to blame whatever: for invading, for not carefully maintaining the dam and various other factors. I certainly can't see Zelensky flooding his own population and reducing his military possibilities.

Loch Ness is a very deep loch though

You should have a CO alarm if you have any gas or oil appliances in the house.  CO is a particular problem because it doesn't stimulate breathing, whereas CO2 does.  Breathing is principally stimulated by blood CO2, not lack of O2, which is why rebreathing inert gases is popular for suicide.

In a sealed house, it'd be lack of O2 that ultimately gets you, not accumulation of CO2, nor CO

It's a clear-cut war crime for a start, and admitting unambiguously to committing a war crime would be an act of idiocy I'm not sure even the Russians would make.

It's blindingly obvious who's responsible. The dam is in Russian-held territory, is a massive structure that isn't realistically going to be breached by shelling from afar or anything short of a substantial set of well-placed demolition charges, was already known to have been mined by the Russians, and breaching it holds absolutely no benefit to Ukraine even if you believe for a second they'd be willing to drown their own people downstream of the dam.

Thankfully, because the Russians appear to be stupid, they've just submerged their defences on the East bank and seemingly drowned a fair few of the inhabitants of said defences.

Don't forget, medium term, the impact on agriculture output is serious for the world not just the local area.

Quite possible that Putin has calculated this action to mean he can charge far more for Russian grain in the future.