In reply to Offwidth:
I have to echo the points jrck2 made. I came from a working class background, via a very average state comp, and read physics at Oxford. I've spent the best part of twenty years in education since then, both state and private, and my current work includes preparing applicants for their PAT papers and interviews, so I dare say I've seen this from more sides than most.
It is not Oxbridge's job to level out societal inequality. It's their job to pick the very very best from the pool of applicants. It's all very well saying that there are plenty of black candidates with AAA or better, but that's just a fairly minimal entry criterion. Imagine telling Mourinho that he has to better represent Mancunians in his side, and it'll be fine because there seem to be lots of kids from Manchester who are pretty handy with a football.
The quality of a university education isn't just about the teaching and facilities; it is, in part, down to the relative ability of the people on the courses. I am quite sure I could have learned just as much science by going to UCL or Durham, and in some aspects it may well have made me a better scientist. But the reason Oxford changed me was being placed in an environment where I was surrounded, day in and day out, by some of the brightest people I'd ever met. It made me get better. Any quota system is going to dilute that.
About 2.6% of UK applications are from black students, compared to 3.0% of the total population, so there is a substantial shortfall in applications. This seems largely due to black students underperforming at school; 11% of white students get AAA or better, while around 4% of black students achieve the same level.
And one statistic that's been almost completely overlooked: black students miss their offer grades far more than other groups. When you compare offer % to take-up %, for every other group there is a couple of percentage points difference, representing those who choose to go elsewhere (very few, post-offer) or miss their grades. For black african students, 16% of applicants get offers but 11% take them up. 25% of black caribbean applicants get offers but 15% actually take them up. This is indicative that black students are significantly underperforming compared to expectation in their A level exams.
There is a major problem here, and it needs attention, but it's not at the university level. David Lammy is succeeding only in focussing the attention in the wrong place.
The argument about applications being needed earlier in the year is a red herring. If these pupils are bright enough to cope with Oxbridge then they can get their UCAS forms done on time. It's the same for all courses that have significant pre-tests and interview processes - medical, vet med and dentistry courses are just the same.
The state/private split doesn't look terribly wrong to me. It's between 55% and 65% state educated in most RG universities. Bear in mind that 18% of all sixth formers are in independent schools, and that most of those schools are academically selective so would expect to send a higher percentage of their cohort to RG unis. Bear in mind also that most private schools actively poach from state schools by offering bursaries; during my time teaching in a state school, we frequently bemoaned the fact that we were surrounded by six independents, all of which would offer free places to our very best students, so about half of what should have been our top set was creamed off.
Yes, many independents are better at preparing their students for the aptitude tests and interviews - that is, in my opinion, one of the few things they are genuinely better at than the state sector (because by gods it's not the quality of the teaching). Some state schools are good at this and some are not; I've certainly been in state schools where there was no encouragement, and almost active discouragement, from applying to Oxbridge, from staff and peers. Oxford and Cambridge are working hard to help schools get better at preparing their students but it's up to the school to invite them in.
And the admissions tutors aren't morons. They can tell, very quickly, who has been immaculately prepared for interview. I utterly screwed up my first college interview - I was poorly prepared by my school, and froze like a rabbit in the headlights. I was duly packed off to another college for another go, and did reasonably well. Reading betwen the lines, I was given a place not wholly on the strength of my second interview but on the improvement I made between the two. And this was in the late nineties; things are rather better now.