/ General election - what will happen?

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Heike 09 Sep 2019

What do you think will happen now if we get (as it looks likely) a general election? I am fearful.

Just wondering

Post edited at 23:13
EddInaBox 09 Sep 2019
In reply to Heike:

Farage, lots and lots of the [expletive deleted].

1
JLS 09 Sep 2019
In reply to Heike:

Some people will vote, some won’t. No-one knows the outcome. There are only hopes and fears.

1
teh_mark 09 Sep 2019
In reply to Heike:

Many people will vote, some people won't vote, some flavour of besuited public-schooled gentlemen will form an exclusive club based on these votes, and they will call themselves Her Majesty's Government. Life will go on as usual for all those outside of the club, punctuated by moments of abject stupidity when our lives are impacted for the worse by decisions made by the club whether we agree with them or not.

2
Heike 09 Sep 2019
In reply to EddInaBox:

Boo

Heike 09 Sep 2019
In reply to JLS:

Yeah, sure, I think you just echoed my post...

Heike 09 Sep 2019
In reply to EddInaBox:

Yikes

Heike 09 Sep 2019
In reply to teh_mark:

Hmm, it's been going on for too long...but yes, I can follow your argument.

Eric9Points 09 Sep 2019
In reply to Heike:

Yougov have done a poll for the Tory party. 50000 people across Britain. They are predicting 287 seats for the Tories. Don't know about the other parties.

It'll either be Brexit party/ Tory government or a Labour/Lib Dem/ Green government.

At the moment it looks tight but who knows how it'll play out between now and November.

pasbury 09 Sep 2019
In reply to Heike:

Have I missed something, all opposition parties will vote against tonight’s motion? Therefore the government will have to negotiate a deal, or failing that, win a commons vote to permit no deal, and failing that, request an extension.

After that we’ll have an election I expect.

pasbury 09 Sep 2019
In reply to Eric9Points:

How many seats will the Brexit party win? UKIP never won a single one.

They didn’t even win Peterborough in a bi-election just after the EU ‘victory’.

Post edited at 23:38
1
birdie num num 09 Sep 2019
In reply to Heike:

I think Jeremy Corbyn will win, by a narrow margin of 52% to 48%. And in a year or so our hallways will all smell of boiled cabbage and old rag mats

8
MonkeyPuzzle 09 Sep 2019
In reply to Heike:

Hung parliament. As you were. Facepalms ago-go.

pec 09 Sep 2019
In reply to pasbury:

> How many seats will the Brexit party win? UKIP never won a single one.

That's not actually correct, Mark Reckless and Douglas Carswell both won bye elections and stood as UKIP MPs.

balmybaldwin 10 Sep 2019
In reply to Heike:

I'm not sure how anyone can think a GE will magically fill parliament with Leave MPs and resolve brexit... the current set of MPs were elected in 2017 and if anything are more representative of public opinion than the rather aged brexit vote. All polling shows no majority for any party, and consistent polling also shows a consistent trend to remain (albeit still close-ish)

Eitherway we have to wait a touch longer because even less mps voted for the GE this time round.... 293vs 46

Post edited at 00:34
wercat 10 Sep 2019
In reply to Heike:

My big fear is that the allies have not learned from the 2016 infokrieg of Dr Coemminbels (cp Poland) and that we are in the position of 1940 where the allied parties are expecting "normal" warfare rather than infokrieg by social media.  So they may find themselves knocking on doors and attending meetings while the enemy are infiltrating and targeting and exploiting weak points, encircling and weakening iinstead of head-on campaigning.

I believe that Coemmingbels is embedded not so much to rule, though he has been, but to use his information war campaign to win the election as their secret weapon probably by influencing people with lies that cannot directly be connected with the Story party.

We all know what happened in 1940

Perhaps we need a campaign to warn MPs about this?

Post edited at 08:26
3
Doug 10 Sep 2019
In reply to wercat:

Isn't Cummings leaving on/around 31 October to have major surgery ? So if the election is delayed till November he'll be in hospital or convalescing.

wercat 10 Sep 2019
In reply to Doug:

First I wouldn't believe anything without seeing proof and secondly he has had ample time to put things into place - presumably any expenditure on IT and skills now would not be part of electoral campaigning limits?

I am certain that campaigning by the Cummings-Johnson-ERG Axis will not be conventional and may not, in large part of effect, be visible, just as in 2016

I really commend "Brexit: The Uncivil War" film for anyone who has not grasped how dangerous this is

Post edited at 08:45
aln 10 Sep 2019
In reply to Heike:

As a wise person once said, it doesn't matter who you vote for, the Government always gets in...

jkarran 10 Sep 2019
In reply to pasbury:

> Have I missed something, all opposition parties will vote against tonight’s motion? Therefore the government will have to negotiate a deal, or failing that, win a commons vote to permit no deal, and failing that, request an extension.

Only that the government has already got a 'deal' (May's WA) it might be able put to the house and that the EU may not be unanimously prepared to offer another extension (very hard to justify if an election is looming but hard with zero trust in Johnson to trigger an election until the extension is secured).

As a straight brexit/no-brexit choice May's deal is likely to find support ahead of revoking A50, maybe with caveats (referendum?).

> After that we’ll have an election I expect.

We probably will eventually.

OP: It's not clear, all still to play for though 'brexit' in on form or another is now far more likely than not.

jk

Post edited at 09:24
krikoman 10 Sep 2019
In reply to Heike:

There'll be more accusations of anti-Semitism within Labour in the weeks leading up to any election.

Bob Kemp 10 Sep 2019
In reply to Eric9Points:

I can't find a YouGov poll for the Tories on their website. There's a Sunday Times one, data collected on the 5th/6th but I can't see anything else recent. Have you got a link?

pasbury 10 Sep 2019
In reply to jkarran:

> Only that the government has already got a 'deal' (May's WA) it might be able put to the house and that the EU may not be unanimously prepared to offer another extension (very hard to justify if an election is looming but hard with zero trust in Johnson to trigger an election until the extension is secured).

Can't see it passing in it's current shape after all the 'undemocratic backstop' shizzle. The ERG headbangers don't just object to that. I assume the opposition parties will still oppose.

If the deal is voted down again then somehow there'll be an election - either by vote of no confidence or a BJ resignation... or something...

> As a straight brexit/no-brexit choice May's deal is likely to find support ahead of revoking A50, maybe with caveats (referendum?).

Perhaps an amendment on a confirmatory referendum could be added but I don't see that passing either as too many options exist on the question(s) asked.

> We probably will eventually.

> OP: It's not clear, all still to play for though 'brexit' in on form or another is now far more likely than not.

All to play for if/when there's an election. Still more scary times to come.

Bob Kemp 10 Sep 2019
In reply to krikoman:

Maybe they should try and do something substantial about it then?

1
wercat 10 Sep 2019
In reply to krikoman:

I expect distrust to be spread generally about by backroom means.  Distrust of all opposition parties, distrust of MPs, except for The Party and The Leader, starting before now.  Spreading a sense of betrayal, stabbing in the back, Boris offering the Solution.

Unless we wake up to this it could go very badly

Post edited at 10:09
jkarran 10 Sep 2019
In reply to pasbury:

> Can't see it passing in it's current shape after all the 'undemocratic backstop' shizzle. The ERG headbangers don't just object to that. I assume the opposition parties will still oppose.

If it passes it will be because the opposition and moderate Conservative rebels are forced into damage limitation mode. They'll rule out no-deal easily, we've seen that already. Then they have to choose to kill brexit or support May's WA. My bet is faced with that choice rather than ride roughshod over the 2016 result May's deal passes.

Johnson and the headbangers then regain control of brexit if Johnson can get through the next few weeks without resigning then spin a good story at election time.

> If the deal is voted down again then somehow there'll be an election - either by vote of no confidence or a BJ resignation... or something...

Almost certainly. As ever we're in a corner, something has to change.

> Perhaps an amendment on a confirmatory referendum could be added but I don't see that passing either as too many options exist on the question(s) asked.

If the question can be distilled, the alternative options realistically restricted to revoke or deal then brexit is still on. Forcing the EU to refuse an extension or finding a way for government to refuse to request one is key. Neither looks easy but both probably are still possible, certainly the former.

> All to play for if/when there's an election. Still more scary times to come.

Yep, we're teetering.

jk

Alyson 10 Sep 2019
In reply to Eric9Points:

> It'll either be Brexit party/ Tory government or a Labour/Lib Dem/ Green government.

I just don't see any common ground between Labour and the Lib Dems other than a current wish to avoid a no-deal Brexit. The Lib Dems are pro-austerity and Swinson voted in favour of the Tory policies which have screwed over the poor and disabled. She is also financially backed by fracking companies and has already committed to pulling a lib dem candidate in order to let the conservative Rory Stewart regain his seat. Lib Dems are just Tories in all but name, as far as I can tell, and any leaflets I've had through at local level are all about 'keeping Labour out'. 

8
john arran 10 Sep 2019
In reply to jkarran:

I see the chance of May's deal going through now as being a lot lower than it was last week. At the time, opposing it was a much higher risk strategy as a likely alternative would have been no deal. While we're still not clear of that risk completely, the votes this week definitely will have reduced the chance of MPs voting for May's deal out of fear of worse.

doz 10 Sep 2019
In reply to Heike:

I reckon Trump will have a punt...after all running the US is only a part time job for him and he's still pretty miffed he couldn't buy Greenland....the already confused British electorate will vote him in and Britain will be turned into a super sized golf course. The only sticking point could be the tricky issue of what to do about balls accidentally hit across the Irish border but the now obsolete Tory cabinet will be employed to drive around in golf buggies collecting them. Everybody will be happy.....

Post edited at 10:59
jkarran 10 Sep 2019
In reply to john arran:

Yeah, it won't pass pitted against delay, it has to go up against no-deal/no-brexit, both of which the house will shy away from. Johnson is still bullish about not requesting an extension so we have to assume he has at least has something still up his sleeve however half arsed. That could of course just be resigning or delegating.

jk

Eric9Points 10 Sep 2019
In reply to Bob Kemp:

> I can't find a YouGov poll for the Tories on their website. There's a Sunday Times one, data collected on the 5th/6th but I can't see anything else recent. Have you got a link?


It was a private poll Bob. I can't post a link right now but it came from Twitter. It was a leak.

Baron Weasel 10 Sep 2019
In reply to krikoman:

> There'll be more accusations of anti-Semitism within Labour in the weeks leading up to any election.

Meanwhile there'll be little scrutiny of the openly racist PM and racism within his party.

3
Eric9Points 10 Sep 2019
In reply to Alyson:

> I just don't see any common ground between Labour and the Lib Dems other than a current wish to avoid a no-deal Brexit.

I certainly thought her comments when first elected were incredibly stupid and ones she may well live to regret.

If faced with the choice of supporting Labour to ensure a second referendum or supporting the tories and enabling Brexit I don't see how the Lib Dems could possibly support the Tories. It would be a betrayal without precedent and would not command the support of her own party.

I don't see Labour forming a coalition with anyone, more likely agreeing what does and does not go into Queen's speeches.

On the other hand if the Tories/Brexit party/DUP had the most seats I think it possible that a few BP MPs end up with their feet under the cabinet table.

Post edited at 11:21
Mike Stretford 10 Sep 2019
In reply to Alyson:

> I just don't see any common ground between Labour and the Lib Dems other than a current wish to avoid a no-deal Brexit. 

If the only stable government is a Lab/Lib Dem coalition they will have to find and agree to some common ground. Both parties will be hurt by another general election (after the upcoming one). They will have to show they can act in the national interest. Compromise is common across the rest of the world, I'd like to think our politicians can manage it.

> Lib Dems are just Tories in all but name, as far as I can tell, and any leaflets I've had through at local level are all about 'keeping Labour out'. 

I don't agree with this... and I'm a Labour party member, happy to call myself a democratic socialist. It's about where the 'centre of mass' of the party is, and with the Lib Dems it is pretty much in the centre. maybe a bit to the right, but nowhere near as far right as a Bojo/Brexit party government would be. I'd much rather seats went to them than the Tories.

1
tom_in_edinburgh 10 Sep 2019
In reply to wercat:

> I believe that Coemmingbels is embedded not so much to rule, though he has been, but to use his information war campaign to win the election as their secret weapon probably by influencing people with lies that cannot directly be connected with the Story party.

If the other parties push out the GE date past Oct 31 Boris isn't going to have Cummings.  Cummings  is supposed to quit on Oct 31 because he needs surgery, he agreed to defer it to work for Boris until Brexit day.   It was a pretty stupid move from Boris to give so much control and authority to a guy who couldn't guarantee to stay for more than a couple of months and he may well come to regret it.

krikoman 10 Sep 2019
In reply to Baron Weasel:

> Meanwhile there'll be little scrutiny of the openly racist PM and racism within his party.


It's already started https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7418973/Jeremy-Corbyn-pictured-jail-wedding-Guildford-Four-member-Paul-Hill.html#comments

They were all innocent men, but let's not get facts in the way of a shit smear.

Where, or who, is the openly racist MP and racism?

Baron Weasel 10 Sep 2019
In reply to krikoman:

Johnson: piccaninies, water melon smiles, letterboxes, bank robbers etc..

2
Eric9Points 10 Sep 2019
fred99 10 Sep 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> Cummings  is supposed to quit on Oct 31 because he needs surgery,

What surgery ?

Is it too much to hope that it's a dodgy one ??

Iamgregp 10 Sep 2019
In reply to Heike:

Can't see any of the parties gaining an overall majority...

Here's my best guess....

Tories to take a hammering in Scotland with the departure of Ruth Davidson (the acceptable face of Scottish Conservatism), and in London but will end up the largest party but with only 300 or so seats. 

Lib Dems will make gains, Brexit might win a seat or two (but no more), SNP will make gains...

Labour will lose some seats, particularly to Lib Dems.  

After that, who knows?  There will be a great deal of horse trading and eventually somebody will form a Government with the help of other parties.  Can't see the Lib Dems getting into bed with the Tories again, not after what happened last time and with their diametrically opposed positions on Brexit. So your guess is as good as mine.

SNP/Labour/Lib Dem coalition is possible.  Doubt Corbyn would be leader though.

Michael Hood 10 Sep 2019
In reply to fred99:

> What surgery ?

> Is it too much to hope that it's a dodgy one ??

>

Circumcision? We can but hope

MG 10 Sep 2019
In reply to Alyson:

This sort of tribalism is what got us in this mess.  Clearly parties are going to have to work together on areas they agree to form a stable government.  The two party system has broken down.  

In any case, saying Lib Dems are Tories in all but name is obvious nonsense.  On the central most important topic of the day - Europe -  the Lib Dems have completely the opposite approach to the Tories.    One party is outward-looking, pro-European, pro-partnership; the other backward looking, insular and xenophobic.  This goes far beyond brexit.

1
Baron Weasel 10 Sep 2019
In reply to fred99:

> What surgery ?

> Is it too much to hope that it's a dodgy one ??

>

To quote the nihilists in The Big Labowski: We will cut off your Johnson!

Eric9Points 10 Sep 2019
In reply to MG:

> This sort of tribalism is what got us in this mess.  Clearly parties are going to have to work together on areas they agree to form a stable government.  The two party system has broken down.  

>  One party is outward-looking, pro-European, pro-partnership; the other backward looking, insular and xenophobic.  This goes far beyond brexit.

Internationalist vs. English nationalist. 

I agree with you that parties and voters need to start searching for what they have in common and not what divides them. Coalitions or alliances that worked on respect and a desire to achieve common goals would be good for politics in the UK.

Michael Hood 10 Sep 2019
In reply to Eric9Points:

> I agree with you that parties and voters need to start searching for what they have in common and not what divides them. Coalitions or alliances that worked on respect and a desire to achieve common goals would be good for politics in the UK.

Absolutely no chance, far too reasonable and sensible.

tom_in_edinburgh 10 Sep 2019
In reply to Iamgregp:

> SNP/Labour/Lib Dem coalition is possible.  Doubt Corbyn would be leader though.

I don't see the SNP being part of a coalition government that didn't allow the s30 order or tried to manipulate the timing or arrangements to make a NO vote more likely.   

I'm not sure the LibDems would ever go for that since -assuming she manages to hold her seat - their leader is in a Scottish constituency and her Westminster career would be over if Scotland voted YES.

As usual Labour have said contradictory things about an s30 order for Indyref2.

From the Labour/Lib Dem point of view the SNP aren't a great coalition partner because Indyref2 would be unpopular in England and take over the political agenda when they want to talk about other things.  Also, Indyref2 in 2020 and a YES vote would mean the SNP would be out of Westminster and the coalition wouldn't last an entire session.

Maybe keeping the Tories out is sufficient motivation but it won't be an easy sell.

Alyson 10 Sep 2019
In reply to MG:

> This sort of tribalism is what got us in this mess.  Clearly parties are going to have to work together on areas they agree to form a stable government.  The two party system has broken down.  

Oh I completely agree.

> In any case, saying Lib Dems are Tories in all but name is obvious nonsense.  On the central most important topic of the day - Europe -  the Lib Dems have completely the opposite approach to the Tories.    One party is outward-looking, pro-European, pro-partnership; the other backward looking, insular and xenophobic.  This goes far beyond brexit.

But the Tories were always pro-Europe apart from a few noisy Euro-sceptics, and indeed many traditional Tory voters are Remain, as are many of their MPs! It's not surprising to me that Conservative MPs are crossing the floor to the Lib Dems. You are probably right to call me out on saying they are the same in all but name, because obviously the Brexit stance is a central feature of current politics. I think I would have been better saying that as the Conservatives lurched to the right to pick up Brexit/Ukip voters, the Lib Dems have taken the place they used to occupy.

1
Eric9Points 10 Sep 2019
In reply to Michael Hood:

> Absolutely no chance, far too reasonable and sensible.

Probably .

We get the government we deserve.

Anyway, this site can provide hours of endless fun, here's my off the top of my head prediction: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=33&LAB=30&LIB=18&Brexit=14&Green=4&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=28&TVLIB=18&TVBrexit=15&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=16&SCOTLAB=15&SCOTLIB=15&SCOTBrexit=7&SCOTGreen=3&SCOTUKIP=2&SCOTNAT=42&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

..especially after one does a bit of ferreting around the various polling company websites or visiting the polling aggregate site, Britain Elects: http://britainelects.com

Iamgregp 10 Sep 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

All very valid - Like you say, there's no natural bedfellows here so god knows how it's all going to work out.

Sadly, I think the only two parties who do share a great deal of ground are the Tories and the Brexit party.  If that happens then we are all truly, truly f*cked.

krikoman 10 Sep 2019
In reply to Baron Weasel:

> Johnson: piccaninies, water melon smiles, letterboxes, bank robbers etc..


OK with you now!

Heard on the radio how, some Tory was bragging about how subtle they were in their anti-Semitism towards Bercow, I have to confess I didn't know he was Jewish until this morning.
It's beyond belief they think this is something to brag about.

Robert Durran 10 Sep 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> I don't see the SNP being part of a coalition government that didn't allow the s30 order or tried to manipulate the timing or arrangements to make a NO vote more likely.  

I suspect a lot of people in Scotland would struggle to forgive the SNP if they were not  seen to be doing all they could to stop Brexit. As someone who will be voting SNP tactically to get rid of my Copnseravtive MP, I would definitely be pretty disappointed.

Eric9Points 10 Sep 2019
In reply to Robert Durran:

> As someone who will be voting SNP tactically to get rid of my Copnseravtive MP, I would definitely be pretty disappointed.

Which constituency are you in?

Robert Durran 10 Sep 2019
In reply to Eric9Points:

> Which constituency are you in?

Ochil and South Perthshire. Conservatives took it from SNP in 2017 by 2 or 3 thousand., so SNP have every chance of retaking it. Other parties a long way behind.

Eric9Points 10 Sep 2019
In reply to Robert Durran:

Fair enough.

Sadly you may end up voting for that moron Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh who, incidently, used to be in the tory party.

Robert Durran 10 Sep 2019
In reply to Eric9Points:

> Sadly you may end up voting for that moron Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh who, incidently, used to be in the tory party.

😟

jkarran 10 Sep 2019
In reply to Alyson:

It'll be interesting to see if the LibDems can hold together a broad range of left-right views internally while maintaining a genuinely moderate/pragmatic position from voter perspective or whether the cracks will be too visible leading ultimately to a split or losing MPs back to where they came from. If the Cons colonise Farage's territory there is potentially, with Labour under Corbyn, space for two centrist parties.

Jk 

Post edited at 19:28
krikoman 10 Sep 2019
In reply to jkarran:

> It'll be interesting to see if the LibDems can hold together a broad range of left-right views internally ...

I doubt it, their new leader seems a little too Tory for most people I know, who favour the centre ground.

1
jkarran 10 Sep 2019
In reply to krikoman:

I think that might vary quite a bit with outlook and where you get your news/views. All the attack stuff about voting with conservatives (omitting the while in coalition) looks pretty thin to me but that's just an other perspective, I guess we'll have to see what they say, see if they sound credible then see if the electorate buy it en masse.

Jk

ali k 10 Sep 2019
In reply to wercat:

> First I wouldn't believe anything without seeing proof and secondly he has had ample time to put things into place - presumably any expenditure on IT and skills now would not be part of electoral campaigning limits?

> I am certain that campaigning by the Cummings-Johnson-ERG Axis will not be conventional and may not, in large part of effect, be visible, just as in 2016

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexspence/boris-johnson-dominic-cummings-voter-data

Bob Kemp 10 Sep 2019
In reply to Eric9Points:

Thanks for the link. I wonder who benefits most from a leak like that?

tom_in_edinburgh 10 Sep 2019
In reply to Robert Durran:

> I suspect a lot of people in Scotland would struggle to forgive the SNP if they were not  seen to be doing all they could to stop Brexit.

I'm sure they'd vote against anything to do with Brexit because their own anti-Brexit policy is far stronger than Labour and the LibDems.   

I don't think they'd go into a formal coalition and be bound to vote with Labour on things they disagreed with unless they were getting something really big in return.   It would need to be Indyref or a constitutional change that gave the Scottish Parliament some really significant new power.

krikoman 11 Sep 2019
In reply to jkarran:

> I think that might vary quite a bit with outlook and where you get your news/views. All the attack stuff about voting with conservatives (omitting the while in coalition) looks pretty thin to me but that's just an other perspective, I guess we'll have to see what they say, see if they sound credible then see if the electorate buy it en masse.

> Jk


It was her almost instantaneous dismissal of partnering with Corbyn's Labour that did it for most of the people I know. It was as if partnering with Labour and Corbyn was worse than a No Deal Brexit and the fact it was dismissed almost out of hand without any consultation that put people off.

Of course people might well change their minds before any election.

MargieB 11 Sep 2019
In reply to Heike:

A working majority for Cons with Brexit. And they've got it all with a 35% or so of population's support.

Tom Watson is right . Don't do it . But goading Corbyn's delusions always seems to be a Tory secret advantage.

Post edited at 07:07
jkarran 11 Sep 2019
In reply to krikoman:

There will have been more than enough consultation on Swinson's part to determine ex Conservatives like Philip Hammond wouldn't ever be lead in coalition by Corbyn. After that it's a matter of counting. That doesn't make her a tory, it makes her a realist.

Plan A won't work. Plan B.

Jk

Post edited at 08:21
The New NickB 11 Sep 2019
In reply to pec:

> That's not actually correct, Mark Reckless and Douglas Carswell both won bye elections and stood as UKIP MPs.

The Brexit Party are untested in this respect, so we only have the experiences of UKIP to look at for comparison. UKIP usually did better in by-elections than general elections. Protest vote, lower turn out and perhaps most significantly being able to focus their limited party machine on one constituency. Obviously, the two examples above where locally popular standing MPs. Both lost their seats in general elections, although admittedly Carswell had parted company with UKIP by this stage. They got quite close in my constituency in a 2014 by-election, which saw a lacklustre Labour campaign, low turn out, tactical voting and a lot of UKIP resources, but they have been nowhere in subsequent general elections.

The Brexit Party may well be a bit different, but I would suggest the Peterborough result suggests otherwise. I'm sure they have a list of constituencies where they are going to focus significant resources, I suspect it isn't all that long a list.

jkarran 11 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

> The Brexit Party may well be a bit different, but I would suggest the Peterborough result suggests otherwise. I'm sure they have a list of constituencies where they are going to focus significant resources, I suspect it isn't all that long a list.

Farage's power has always derived from shifting Conservative policy to stem vote and seat losses rather than actually winning seats. This latest incarnation will likely be better funded and organised than UKIP and will benefit from the environment we find ourselves in but I still don't see them taking many seats, probably a handful of mill towns and coastal retirement villages.

Still, he has the Conservative puppet solidly shifted onto UKIP territory and the tools to keep them there. He's won his fight before we even go to the polls.

jk

Eric9Points 11 Sep 2019
In reply to jkarran:

> There will have been more than enough consultation on Swinson's part to determine ex Conservatives like Philip Hammond wouldn't ever be lead in coalition by Corbyn. After that it's a matter of counting. That doesn't make her a tory, it makes her a realist.

Yes but that's not what she originally said. She originally said *she* wouldn't sit in a government with Corbyn and made it personal. She later equivocated but by that time people were pointing out it was a bit rich coming from someone who was happy to sit in David Cameron's cabinet.

Alyson 11 Sep 2019
In reply to Eric9Points:

This is what I was trying to say about the Lib Dems and the Tories being very closely aligned. Aside from the Brexit issue there isn't a lot between them. It saddens me that a lot of Remain voters will probably vote Lib Dem, because in all honesty that solves NONE of the problems which underpinned the referendum result in the first place. It's no use just being pro-EU; for this country to move forwards we have to simultaneously address the massive social inequality which fuelled the 2016 result. An inequality which the Lib Dems perpetuated while in the coalition government.

4
krikoman 11 Sep 2019
In reply to jkarran:

See Eric9Point  reply above.

For my mind and that of my usual LibDem mates, she was too quick to dismiss, even if there had been some discussion previously, though this was within an hour of Corbyn suggesting a coalition. She should at least have pretended to consider the option, it looks like she instantly dismissed it out of hand.

jkarran 11 Sep 2019
In reply to Alyson:

The LibDems don't look set to take that many seats and those they do will largely come from the Conservatives, there aren't many Lib/Lab marginals.

I'd argue a government containing or dependant upon LibDems is probably the only realistic shot we have at addressing one of the key issues in our democracy: the need to seize control of it by extraordinary means to have minority views represented. FPTP effectively disenfranchises a significant chunk of the electorate which results, quite reasonably, in a feeling of remoteness and powerlessness that is easy to twist. No other credible kingmaker will be pushing for electoral reform at the very top of their agenda.

I say this as a left leaning voter with a tendency toward the Greens when I can, I think the LibDems are part of the solution, not the problem. Labour will never tackle electoral reform alone, while things are changing slowly to block Labour out of power (rise of SNP and a shift away from the traditional left-right axis) our constituencies are currently gerrymandered to deliver them a clear shot at majority government or a muscular role in opposition (likewise Conservatives).

jk

MG 11 Sep 2019
In reply to Alyson:

The reality is quite a lot of Lib Dems could very easily be on the softer side of the Tories and vice versa.  Similarly, quite a lot could be on the Blair-ite side of Labour.  They are a centrist party with an ethos and set of policies to match.   Their polices around NHS funding, Europe, the environment, investment etc are all substantially different from either party, however

Dismissing them because of their willingness in the past to a minority coalition party is unwise and will propagate the likelihood of extreme politics and appalling leadership under Johnson or Corbyn in the future.

cb294 11 Sep 2019
In reply to Michael Hood:

At neck level.

fred99 11 Sep 2019
In reply to Alyson:

Noting where the Conservatives have gone since the coalition, don't you think that maybe the LibDems weren't actually a heavily moderating influence on the coalition ?

Where do you think the Tories might have gone then without the LibDems being in coalition wth them ?

Eric9Points 11 Sep 2019
In reply to :

> Where do you think the Tories might have gone then without the LibDems being in coalition wth them ?

Into opposition most probably although I concede or was more complicated than that and agree that they were a moderating influence on the Tories.

I think Alyson makes good points about addressing the issues that in part led to Brexit and can't understand why they seem so hostile to the idea of cooperating with the Labour party in order to address them. I'd have thought it was the sort of thing they'd want to do.

Mike Stretford 11 Sep 2019
In reply to Eric9Points:

> I think Alyson makes good points about addressing the issues that in part led to Brexit and can't understand why they seem so hostile to the idea of cooperating with the Labour party in order to address them. I'd have thought it was the sort of thing they'd want to do.

Most of their target seats are Tory seats where Labour doesn't stand a chance. To woo over Tory voters they have to distance themselves from Labour.


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