UKC

/ Christmas spoiler- turbo thaw of death

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French Erick - on 22 Dec 2017
Feeling down...back to chasing the marginal ephemeral.
Mike-W-99 on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to French Erick:
Back to chapter 1 in Simons book.
Cheer up though, theres snow forecast next week.
Post edited at 10:09
profitofdoom on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to French Erick:

> Feeling down...back to chasing the marginal ephemeral.

Thanks Erick maybe I am thick but can I please have a translation of your thread title and of your post please. Much appreciated. Thank you and Merry Xmas
13
rogerwebb - on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to French Erick:

Worry not, that's just the preview over.
The real thing starts from Christmas.
Ramblin dave - on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to French Erick:

Serious question for people who know about this sort of stuff: is "relatively cold, clear, snowy December with a thaw, pissing rain and gale force winds arriving just in time for your New Year trip" actually a statistically significant thing that happens because of some feature of the British climate, or is it just sod's law / confirmation bias?
DannyC on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to Mike-W-99:

Haha, that's quite a useful shorthand for conditions forecasts actually, eg "A classic Chapter Two-er" or "Definitive Chapter Four."

It's at times like this that I like to turn to guides' blogs for encouragement. In fact, I think there should be some sort of annual award for 'Most Optimistic Forecast Interpretation of the Year'

Joking aside, there's potential for a heavy dump up high on Christmas Eve, so I reckon white-ish things will probably get climbed on Boxing Day. Perhaps all is not lost.

D.
planetmarshall on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to Ramblin dave:

> Serious question for people who know about this sort of stuff: is "relatively cold, clear, snowy December with a thaw, pissing rain and gale force winds arriving just in time for your New Year trip" actually a statistically significant thing that happens because of some feature of the British climate, or is it just sod's law / confirmation bias?

I took a quick look at the available data from the Cairngorm weather station and there doesn't appear to be any statistically significant pattern along those lines. Rather annoyingly the data available online isn't provided in any kind of easily visualized format - despite this being a fairly trivial task for an engineering student.

http://cairngormweather.eps.hw.ac.uk/archive.htm
French Erick - on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to profitofdoom:

it spoils my Christmas when everything is thawing back to pre winter conditions. I'm left having to go back to reading Simon Richardson's Chasing the ephemeral. Even worse, I'll probably be scraping the barrel on marginal winter conditions when it reappears briefly after 25th as not much will frozen, if i try to go out.

You'll have to excuse my poorer grasp of English than most as I learned it from a book ?
Dave Kerr - on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to French Erick:

> it spoils my Christmas when everything is thawing back to pre winter conditions. I'm left having to go back to reading Simon Richardson's Chasing the ephemeral.

There's always the drink.
Martin Bennett - on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to French Erick:

Bollix! Going to sister-in-law's in Inverness for new year. Not worth packing boots and an axe for nice wintry plods over Cairngorms then? More like wellies and a sou-wester for dreary dreach dreadful donders down in t' valley?
French Erick - on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to Dave Kerr:

you know I am even worse at that than climbing!
French Erick - on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to Martin Bennett:

Gully snow-plod? unlikely. Walk in the snow? sure bring your stuff up. That's not what I am after though...but I want never gets #firstworldproblem
1
TobyA on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to rogerwebb:

> Worry not, that's just the preview over.

> The real thing starts from Christmas.

Can you assure those of us south of Hadrian's Wall (and with family commitments limiting trips north of it) that this is true for England and Wales too please!?
rogerwebb - on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to Martin Bennett:

Something will be in, if not there's always Moy rock.

rogerwebb - on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to TobyA:

> Can you assure those of us south of Hadrian's Wall (and with family commitments limiting trips north of it) that this is true for England and Wales too please!?

I could, but it might be a chargeable offence....
Michael Gordon - on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to Ramblin dave:

I would say that conditions are usually crap over the festive period. Obviously there are exceptions but usually only one or two isolated decent days rather than a good spell.
Michael Gordon - on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to DannyC:

>
> It's at times like this that I like to turn to guides' blogs for encouragement. In fact, I think there should be some sort of annual award for 'Most Optimistic Forecast Interpretation of the Year'
>

I nominate Mike Pescod!
Joak - on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to Michael Gordon:

Haha, aye despite having lots of spare time, these "only one or two isolated decent days rather than a good spell" invariably happen to be on the only two days in the whole year I'm entertaining family and friends.
1
planetmarshall on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to DannyC:

> Joking aside, there's potential for a heavy dump up high on Christmas Eve...

Robin heading out again, is he?

d_b on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to French Erick:

It's my fault. I sharpened my crampons.

Sorry all.
Misha - on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to Dave Kerr:
And Newtyle.
1
Elsier on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to Ramblin dave:

Actually there is a thing called weather singularity which means that certain times of year have a higher incidence of certain weather patterns.

New Year is typically a stormy and westerly weather pattern I think.

So yeah if we could move the Christmas and New year holidays to maybe early December or mid Feb which are typically more settled that would be good.

You can look up the data, if I am planning a UK climbing trip I take it into account when planning the dates.
profitofdoom on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to French Erick:

> it spoils my Christmas when everything is thawing back to pre winter conditions

Thanks a lot for your reply, Erick, it was not your English at all I just did not understand your post
wee jamie on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to Elsier:



> New Year is typically a stormy and westerly weather pattern I think.

That applies to all other times of the year too if you live in Fort William
Sophie G. - on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to French Erick:

Lot to be said for the marginal ephemeral. The tech 7 climbing bit is the easy part; the hard part is the meteorology. See it as a challenge
Mark Bannan - on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to French Erick:

>... my poorer grasp of English than most as I learned it from a book ?

That's what Manuel says in Fawlty Towers!

M

Sophie G. - on 22 Dec 2017
In reply to Sophie G.:

And in case anyone's not getting Erick's Chasing The Ephemeral refs, here's a wee stocking-filler

https://www.ukclimbing.com/gear/review.php?id=8995
alibrightman on 23 Dec 2017
iceox - on 23 Dec 2017
In reply to French Erick:

The finest winters all start like this,you may be lucky.
veteye on 23 Dec 2017
In reply to French Erick:

At least you have time off. At least go and battle the gloom and wet.
I have Boxing day off, which is taken with a good meal to see my children(in their twenties).
In the rest of the period I am on call or working, and admittedly through my masochism for academic matters, I have to study when I have free breaks from anything happening. My kicks will have to come from ticks for getting through various study hoops and going for a run or bike ride in the rain or gloom.
(I'm actually really looking forward to a good bike ride on Christmas day in the afternoon, which may end up starting in the dark, but hopefully not.)
1
Dave Kerr - on 23 Dec 2017
In reply to French Erick:
Disgustingly mild now.

And I took my own advice and now I have a hangover.
Post edited at 09:21
Andy Nisbet - on 23 Dec 2017
In reply to Dave Kerr:

I saw a photo from yesterday and Sneer on Hell's Lum is still in.
Al Todd - on 24 Dec 2017
In reply to Andy Nisbet:

Worse still, there's more ice still to melt inside our turkey than left on the routes
J Whittaker - on 25 Dec 2017
In reply to French Erick:

I spent 3 weeks offshore and missed everything, it started to thaw literally 2 days before i got home. Totally gutted.

I have a planned trip 27-30th...still deciding whether its worth the drive. I have no idea if this cold snap starting now will make anything climbable by 28th


purplemonkeyelephant - on 25 Dec 2017
In reply to French Erick:

The summit of the Ben looked snowy live on BBC breakfast today. Might still be enough to build a snowman
neuromancer - on 27 Dec 2017
In reply to French Erick:

So what do we think the magic 8-ball says for the new year trip?

Freezing level below 400m some days - loads of snow? Could be classic chapter 1 conditions?

He hopes?
French Erick - on 27 Dec 2017
In reply to neuromancer:

New year is a long way off. I read a slight thaw sat/sun. There isn't that much on the hills but it's cold. Your guess is as good as mine!
Michael Gordon - on 28 Dec 2017
In reply to neuromancer:

Not sure it's quite meant to be that cold. Looks like a good freeze/thaw period to me, but also potentially stormy so could be quite full-on some days.
neuromancer - on 28 Dec 2017
In reply to French Erick:

Come on collective UKC optimists? I'm trying my hardest to spin the conditions as being perfect for my partner to pack up her axes and crampons and drive north.

Give me "It'll be great in Sneachda, go do the message and logbook it gloriously in pride!" or give me "go home (or to a chilly almscliffe)" (i.e. death).

Yours sitting under the sword of damocles...
JoeyTheFish - on 28 Dec 2017
In reply to neuromancer:

Go anyway - if it's in you'll feel great - if its not it's still better than getting mild hypothermia at Almscliffe...

FWIW I'm going up from Saturday until Wednesday - one of the few advantages of long planned trips is that there is none of this indecisiveness! If you don't go you don't know..

High mixed should be fine from Saturday with the forecast snow and winds. Plus GREEN avy forecast - GREEN! Find the positives. Writing this has increased my psyche...I'm off to sharpen some metal!
rogerwebb - on 28 Dec 2017
In reply to neuromancer:

Snow to sea level on Skye and at Lochcarron yesterday snow and ice in my back garden in Inverness. I would be really surprised if you couldn't find something to do at New Year given the forecast. Don't expect build up though.

It might not be great in Sneachda but it will be good enough.

(might I recommend the Seam....)
BnB - on 28 Dec 2017
In reply to JoeyTheFish:

Skye is plastered from summits down to the coast. Was sleeting st sea level this morning. More snow here than anywhere else in the western half (I just drove to Glasgow).

Did a mountaineering route with my son yesterday and it was pretty full-on in strong gales with heavily drifted unconsolidated windslab abounding. Type 2 fun for sure.
EuanM - on 28 Dec 2017
In reply to neuromancer:

I'll be in the Cairngorms tomorrow. Can't decide between a potentially 3rd disappointing walk in to Sneachda or a mountaineering circuit taking in Braeriach.

Saturday doesn't look ideal for either.
jonnie3430 - on 28 Dec 2017
In reply to EuanM:

Loose snow and unfrozen turf, so pick a rocky mixed route and enjoy!

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