UKC

I was chatting with someone the other day who is a medic in the NHS. I mentioned that I’d never tested positive and hadn’t had any illness or significant symptoms and so far as I know therefore I considered myself never to have had it. He said that was highly unlikely given how prevalent it had been although he didn’t have any actual statistical analysis of the probability of not having had a Covid infection. I’ve had a go at trying to work out for myself what a reasonable estimate might be for the probability of not having had a Covid infection but I didn’t make much progress; so knowing there are folks on here who have taken  quite a close interest in the Covid stats in the last couple of years I’d be interested to hear what opinions there are. That is if you’re not all pretty bored with it by now. 😊

Best just to crack on and not ponder? 

Can't add any data, but I can add the anecdote that my wife and I both fall into the same group as you. As far as we can tell, we are the only such people in our immediate circle.

It's rather hard to work out on an individual basis.

I managed to escape the 'rona until February this year despite prior to this multiple, very clear exposures at work with likely a high viral load and not so much as a temperature (obviously we use PPE but still...). Add to this over the winter we were doing daily LFTs increasing the chance of flagging up an asymptomatic infection.

I'm talking patients coughing in my face, sat in the back for prolonged transfers with patients that later turn out to be positive, full households of people very obviously infected but not really getting that they might infect others etc etc etc. My colleagues have similar stories.

Then a mild strain was going around station earlier in the year and it was positive LFT whack-a-mole, some with symptoms, some asymptomatic.

Just finished my latest round and this one rather delightfully included projectile vomiting for a day or so. No idea where I got it from but the "Big sick" Covid patients are just starting to present again.

So basically fck knows if you've had it, but probably, or maybe not, or you might have etc etc.....

It is totally possible you haven't had it. At my workplace, we're tested weekly with a v. sensitive test (bit unusual, but we make them), and there are a few people who genuinely haven't caught it yet, although they're definitely in the minority. 

I've never tested positive and never had any symptoms. I'm pretty sure I've never had it. This is despite multiple exposures. I've twice spent the entire day in a room unmasked with a guy who tested positive the next day. I went on a week's trip with my daughter, and she was never out of my sight. On the day we returned, she tested positive and I didn't. 

I've heard stories that there are certain people who just don't get it. I have had four jabs, and I was very cautious before I'd had the first two, but now I'm convinced I'm immune and don't take any precautions.

I'm pretty similar in my negative situation to you, but I do take some precautions still. Like you I have had four vaccinations, but I have not had the flu vaccination as I felt that I would respond better to having the vaccines separately with a gap in between.

I never feel good if I go on the underground, and it's very busy. So I wear a mask in that situation.

There must be some people who genuinely have not had the infection with Covid-19, but how many is difficult to come close to calculating.

There were 14 people working in my office building in July this year.  Over the period of about two weeks all bar one got Covid.   

We have no idea how he hasn’t caught it

Yeah I managed to swerve it for the last two years despite working on an ambulance, living in a firehouse etc etc. Was feeling pretty smug - until I got it last week on vacation.

Unfortunately, ONS don’t seem to have updated their estimates for cumulative incidence, from 2020 up to Feb 2022, which are shown in Fig. 1 of the following report. Their methodology seems pretty involved ...

https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc1882/countries/index.html (Fig. 1)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/con...

Across all four UK countries, the percentage of the population that have had COVID-19 since the start of the survey has increased at varying rates up to February 2022. An estimated:

70.7% of the population in England (90% credible intervals: 66.0% to 75.6%) had COVID-19 between 27 April 2020 and 11 February 2022

56.0% of the population in Wales (90% credible intervals: 44.3% to 69.4%) had COVID-19 between 30 June 2020 and 11 February 2022

72.2% of the population in Northern Ireland (90% credible intervals: 56.0% to 90.9%) had COVID-19 between 27 July 2020 and 11 February 2022

51.5% of the population in Scotland (90% credible intervals: 40.5% to 63.6%) had COVID-19 between 22 September 2020 and 11 February 2022

(I don’t seem to have had it)
 

https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/report-on-nowcasting-and-forecast...

They estimate 86.7% up to August. 

And they win automatic nomination for the most optimistic significant figure award.

My 74 year old mum hasn't caught it, despite living with and acting as carer for my 78 year old, obese, type 2 diabetic, COPD suffering father. He on the other hand has had it 3 times, but dodged any serious illness from it. Doesn't really make sense!

I'm 90% certain I had it back in March 2020, and again at the start of this month. I was surprised how hard it hit, given I've had all my jabs.

What do you mean by this peppermill?  I'm curious.  The projectile vomiting sounds right nasty : ( hope I don't get that one!

Immune in the sense that your body must have had an Immune response so quick it didn't take hold and multiply much at all. No one is Immune in the sense of having a ready brek forcefield stopping it entering their body. There are multiple unknowns, for example in asia exposure to previous sars viruses gave them more protection against this strain. 

Pretty sure hubby hasn't had it. Although due to lack of home testing when I was positive, there is the possibility that (like his sister with a different varient) he was fully asymptomatic. 

Also parents don't think they have, although being retired and generally good about isolation (and fully vaccinated) is probably a factor there.

I have not had it (or if I have I've had no symptoms and it didn't flag up on the tests). My wife has had it and so have her sisters. Her mother hasn't. My Dad never had it. All in all I know quite a few who haven't had it. Quite a few who have had it and a few unfortunate folk who have had it more than once.

All purely anecdotal of course

Well I had a noticeable reaction to my third jab. Does that count?

Funny you should mention SARS. I caught a nasty flu in China in the time of SARS. The worst flu I've ever had, but not hospitalised, so no one knows what it was. Maybe that gave me Covid protection?

Fairly sure I've never had it. I take part in a study which means I've had a PCR test every ~2 weeks since May 2020 which have all been negative. There's a strong chance that even if I caught it and recovered before the next test, it would still show a positive at the next test.

Also used to LFT at least every 3 days due to contact with vulnerable people and every LFT has been negative. Still do a LFT if I get any symptoms just in case.

I think it was David Spiegelhalter who said on a podcast around a year ago that he basically didn't believe anyone who said they hadn't had it yet. I thought at the time his numbers sounded way off.

Myself and the misses was the same up until about a month ago. We are still suffering from it now, annoyingly - just a pathetic cough but it won't shift.

Technically, I still haven't tested positive but that is only due to lack of testing.

Neither my wife nor I have ever tested positive, each having had 100+ LFT and several PCR tests each. Nor can I recall having had anything resembling symptoms. I am 4x and she is 3x vaccinated.

I work in crowded places where many people including most of my colleagues have had it, as have several of the members of our family who live locally.

I've not had Covid as far as I know. I've sat on the other side of our kitchen table for 11 days of my Wife testing positive and I never tested positive. One of the guys at work lived in his house with all three of his children having had Covid at one time or another, and he hasn't had it either.

For the first 2 months of the pandemic we pretty much sealed the mountain and cut physical contact with the world.  After that I'd go to the office and lab, and made good use of portable HEPA filters.  By summer 2021 we were happy to have meals indoors at restaurants in quiet times a few times and we dined outdoors in both 2020 and 2021 whenever we could - after 3 months of home cooking every single meal during the first lockdown, eating out was like magic.

After schools returned that I'd assumed I'd catch it at some point due to having Jr in school, but apparently we never did.   The school has had outbreaks, and we treated the children absolutely normally with regards contact levels throughout the pandemic.

By January 2023 shortly after my 3rd dose, I decided to start going to high risk venues like indoor children's parties, and I caught it pretty much that week.  Suggests that in my case it was precautionary measures at work.

My evidence free take on it:   If you took high precautions back in early 2020 before much was understood, and if you were fortunate enough to be able to avoid high risk environments re: work, care etc, and you were fortunate enough to be able to avoid public transport, and you were fortunate enough to be able to shop at very quiet times and online, and you don't have other household members at high risk of catching it, there would be nothing exceptional about not having caught it so far.

I was pretty disappointed with Spiegelhalter's contributions a few times.

I hope someone somewhere is researching high exposure individuals who haven't caught Covid - some lessons in innate immunity to add to the super-soldier, erm healthy living research program?

I've never taken a covid test. I did isolate when my Mum got it during lockdown. If I've had it I was asymptomatic or it was a very minor cold that lasted less than 24 hours. 

Do you know any figures on the proportion of infections which are symptomless (or near symptomless)?

I think that very few people can have got this far without being exposed, but my feeling is that quite a few people have had an initial sub-clinical infection and not been tested or even tested negative.  
 

There are a lot of factors involved here;  the size of the viral load, the site where most of it landed, the HLA class I and II genetics of the individual and their immune repertoire from previous coronavirus infections, the genetics of their innate immune system and their background health.  Not to mention their vaccination status.

The numbers may only make sense if you assume there are no undetectable infections. However if there are people who have had prolonged multiple high exposure but never tested positive that suggests there are outliers who may never test positive. Maybe they have super nostrils or their immune response is not the one targeted by tests.

Perhaps, maybe, who knows! All speculation without testing. You may have just caught the normal seasonal flu before it moved here. 

Basically life-threateningly unwell with COVID. Usually severe breathing difficulties, a requirement for massive amounts of oxygen and rapid transfer to hospital potentially resulting in being put on a ventilator. Usually a certain number of days after symptoms first present, usually unvaccinated, usually with various health problems. 

You weren't testing at the end of 2019 & early 2020, so you don't know, so you don't know who had it back then.

I got to a bit before Easter this year before I got it. I'm a school teacher and since we went back into the classroom in Sept. 2020 I'm exposed daily in a single room setting to I would guess on average perhaps 100 different people? In 2020 there was no mask requirement as I remember it, and that struck me as pretty silly, I wore one much of the time. There were lots of outbreaks in class groups I had taught, where they would "close the bubble" - all the kids in that class went home for two weeks. After the Jan - Feb lockdown of 2021 we did have masks in school for a couple of months but it was a nightmare as we weren't allowed to not offer children an education if they wouldn't wear a mask, and it was pretty normal for kids to have them covering their chins and not much else. I had "difficult" kids scream in my face - close enough to feel the spit on my face; cough in my face; purposely breath on me saying they had covid etc. It was an ugly period in many ways.

Once mandated masks had gone we were told it was best for us not to teach in masks because it limited communication - particularly for kids with certain SEN. We did get given masks with clear plastic bits over the mouth but they seemed to always fog up and it made you look a bit too "silence of the lambs-sie". We were also taking LFTs twice weekly from March 2021 until I think this spring? Can't remember exactly.

Between being in a school, and having three school age kids of my own, I was pretty surprised that I didn't get it until this year. Interesting when I got really quite poorly and called in sick, I did LFTs that were coming back negative, so thought at first I just had some flu bug. I think it was only on the 3rd day of being sick the LFT turned instantly positive. After having done so many of them for a year, I was relieved to see they really do work! But it did make me wonder if people who got poorly might have done a test, got a -ve, and if they didn't have boxes of spare tests like teachers did, not tested again and not realised it was covid?

Mrs B and myself have never had it.  

But then we generally don't go to places where people are coughing, spluttering & sneezing.  So no hospitals or doctors surgeries.  Nor do we go t'pub, and I work outdoors and alone.

As my Nan used to say - and probably many others - "coughs and sneezes spread diseases".  

me also pretty sure no infection so far, but will be giving the vaccine boosters a miss. maybe natural infection is the way forward with the milder current strains? (not that i want to catch it)

oh er, i feel some downvotes coming

That would fit for my family. There are seven of us, living in four separate households and four of us are classed as vulnerable. Because of that we've been ultra-cautious and tested frequently and none of us have had Covid, that we know of.

The strains aren't necessarily milder, it's just not killing many because most are vaccinated, especially those vulnerable. I wouldn't be lulled into a false sense of security. As the saying goes, what doesn't kill you mutates and tries again! 

would be interested to see data on smoking status vs infection rate/state (this was one of the early findings). do you smoke?

I think a side consideration is if you smoke, a person is less likely to care about their health, diet, exercise, maybe obese, pre diabetic etc... so smoking may just be a visible factor that is tied into many others which effects how easily the body can fend off serious illness.  

i'm a bit of a risk-taker, but try to careful (successful so far) at the same time- just like all good mountaineers

my anecdote is an unvaccinated friend who caught (presumably Omicron) at gig recently and passed onto family - wasn't described any worse than some of the vaccine side-effects really..

Living on the edge dude......ha ha.

Up to you obviously but I wouldn't assume everything going around this far in to the pandemic is going to be mild. 

yes, likely smokers would have worse outcomes when infected

disgusting habit.

Why? Based on your dislike of smoking? Or medical knowledge? Just because you breath it in, it's not strictly a respiratory virus, it attacks many organs via the blood stream. That's why overall health and various other conditions can seriously impact people catch it. 

That is like saying you know a 90 year old smoker, but you won't know the dozens of friends they previously smoked with, because they've all died prematurely of lung cancer! 

I can judge the risk in the hills, what no one can do is judge personal risk to a new emerging virus, even a virologist doesn't know how it'll impact them personally as we all differ. 

My anecdote, a former work colleague in his 50s, healthy nothing that put them in a high risk group died of covid (not with), so did his father and his daughter in her early 20s. Sometimes we can be genetically unfortunate. 

There were lots of nasty chesty colds in the back-end of 2019. I saw this a lot in the UK and also in my visits to Banff and Turin. By spring 2020 people susequently added two and two and got 22! For Turin in December maybe let's say 12, as there was some covid RNA in sewerage samples there very late in that year (likely linked to a lot of exchange business visits to Wuhan relating to the textile industy).

I've never had it. Tested regularly for work since 2020, first PCRs then LFTs so very unlikely ever had an asymptomatic infection. My partner had it in March and I've had close calls at a couple of group get-togethers with numerous cases in the days after.

I've never really pushed my luck though. Good precautions in place at work, masks when required, handful of trips to the pub, back to the gym when they reopened. Rare trips on public transport (including 8 hours  train travel to Swansea with a colleague who tested positive the morning after).

I was disappointed to get really quite sick- fever, chills, body ache, low energy etc- as I am fully vaxed and had my last booster about 3 weeks before catching it. Generally in good health, decently fit.

My equally fully vaxed in-laws in their early/mid eighties were able to carry on pottering about at home and in the garden as normal with nothing more than a sniffle. The impact on an individual is massively unpredictable.

To my knowledge i have never had it.

Certainly never had any symptoms that would indicate so,  but also i have never had any of the tests at all either, so who knows, maybe i had it and didn't know.

for disclosure, i have a phobia of needles, so not had any of the jabs either (nor flu jabs)

It does seem random.

I've not had it, but everyone else in the office I work in has.

My sister - who works in a hospital - hasn't had it. Although her daughter-in-law who works in the same ward has. Her son (daughter-in-law's husband) also hasn't caught it.

My brother hasn't caught it, though his wife has. His son-in-law has caught it, but his daughter (son-in-law's wife) hasn't.

Maybe we're just lucky - at the time of going to press.

{I say crossing my fingers and furiously looking for a black cat}

edit: - daily tests for work early on, plus tests prior to athletic meetings or going out any time. Now had 4 jabs

Yep. So I am learning! Tested negative the last three days. And now I feel like shite again. Probably not covid, just my body deciding to catch up on all the sickness I missed the last few years.

It's of my opinion that the virus is gaming our immune systems. I got away with it for a few years, then, as if I'd just mined some cryptocurrency or a hacker had somehow breached my bank account, I got sick. Anecdotally, I think it's gradually working it's way around to everybody. My brother hasn't caught it yet, he's the last person I know not to go down with the symptoms, at least.

Thanks for this – more recent than the ONS (England) estimate I posted above, by a good few months. Breakdowns by region & age, too

I've had it twice, possibly 3 times. I have never distanced from my husband any of the times and he hasn't shown any signs or tested positive for it. We are very careful with testing as we have a lot of vulnerable contacts. 

Some people just seem not to get it

It's impossible to know. Our whole household got it some time ago and I kept testing negative. I felt pretty tired and run down at the time. This could be due to a light infection or due to just being tired from taking care of the whole family and sleeping on the sofa. So, it's easy to think I am immune or somehow less affected. 

However, a good friend of mine was in the same situation (having avoided infection despite everyone else in the household getting it) and then got one of the worst cases I have seen out of the blue. 

It's probably best to just get on with life but be sensible. 

My neighbour reckons he had covid in November 2019.  He shared an office with a bloke who came back sick from a Wuhan business trip.  There were other early (before news of Wuhan) examples in the village too, including my wife's medical colleague had some debilitating strange flu in December 2019, no smell etc.

Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the prepandemic period in Italy

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0300891620974755

I've not had it (so far as I am aware). But my lifestyle means I am probably low risk. I live alone and for the last 2 years my main exposure to Covid has been site visits for work, mainly outdoors, and visiting climbing walls and supermarkets.  My anecdotal experience is that most infections have been via children at school, or nights out in crowded pubs.

I think the figure I heard on R4 was ~95% have likely had it once or more times. I'm in the same boat, no particular cause to think I've had it except probability.

Jk

I'm sure there may have been a small number about worldwide with covid from links to wuhan. However the huge number of people who think it was them is simply unfeasible. There was a load of people in all three locations in November 2019 with what were almost certainly nasty chesty colds (but no covid type hospitalisations I've heard of). The Turin sewerage samples were almost certainly covid but probably very small numbers and not much spread (or hospitalisations would have been noticed earlier and the pandemic would have hit Italy much earlier)... also where were the sewerage samples in other big cities indicating the same elsewhere? Like I said... in the main we are talking 2 plus 2 equals 22.

I caught it back in February too, and had my 10 days of a bad cold.

And then the side effects started to slowly make their presence known over the next month or so, with weak and aching large muscle groups being the show stopper. Been off work since April and tomorrow is my first day back at school.

Have I missed much?

Have seen this breakdown of excess deaths from the British Heart Foundation, bottom of page 8

https://www.bhf.org.uk/-/media/files/what-we-do/influencing-change/tipping-...

Shows that most of the excess deaths are heart related based on what is written on death certificates.

I wonder how reliable the home tests are ?

Too many people are saying that they have never had Covid, even people who have apparently had symptoms, test negative.

My father appears to have never had it, despite at the age of 85 taking the view that he had such a limited lifespan left, that he ignored as much as possible any lockdown restrictions he could. Even went delivering pizza for the local restaurant, when most people were cowering behind curtains and clapping the NHS.

He thinks the whole thing is/was a scam.

I'd rather we say that cardiac related deaths are unusually high compared to reference years (as are covid deaths!). The causes of those extra cardiac deaths will (as the article indicates) include delayed diagnosis, delayed treatment, delays in emergency response, but also covid infection damage, as likely main causes but there will be a known much smaller number related to vaccination (orders of magnitude lower according to the risk data we have so far). So with the risks we know about it's more likely as a probability that if you have a cardiac incident in the days after a vaccination, that it's unrelated to the vaccination rather than because of it. Yet in that situation, it's human nature that many will assume causation, rather than random correlation.

Not had it as far as I know. If I did, it was early in the first wave when we were told to work from home, when I noticed a sore throat and a little shortness of breath. This was before testing was available. Since then nothing, even though my eldest was working at a hospital as an HCA on Covid wards during gap year in 2020, getting it around April, and I have another child at school and my wife a teacher, and live in a university city which has had some of the highest spikes in the country, so potentially we've all had lots of exposure (my wife also hasn't knowingly had it - my daughter almost certainly had it at the same time as my eldest).

I was normally fairly careful with distancing and mask-wearing during the key periods, but never 'shielding' and am now socialising normally, going to a crowded climbing wall, going on climbing trips and staying in a bunkhouse with a load of others, etc, no mask. Have taken LFTs when having colds/cough symptoms, and before car-sharing on trips, but zilch. I have now had four jabs.

I remember reading somewhere certain blood groups, including mine (0 Rh-), may have a greater immunity according to one piece of research, perhaps there is something in that. All anecdotal though, I have no special insight.

LFT is still a very useful tool. Used poorly they have low accuracy 20%. When done by Liverpool students unsupervised in student halls they were about 80% false negative  (1) - you do anything badly enough it might have bad accuracy   --> *astonishing news* 

However exactly the same tests used well had reasonably good accuracy 81% (1), but that still means even in best conditions there were 19% false negatives.

Maybe you had a SARS-Cov-2 infection at some point or maybe you didn't. Unless you have the antibody test (which are not widely available)  you will never know for sure if you had a historic infection. Even *if* you never had it and you are one of those people naturally immune to the strains that have been around to date, that doesn't guarantee you can't contract a new strain which can evade immune responses to existing and previous ones. And just like that, if you did have it historically you might catch a newer strain.

Like others say...   "meh"  just get on with life

^1  https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/234154/lateral-flow-tests-missing-substanti... 

They arent great. Fairly low sensitivity and also had the problem, for some types, of people failing to use them properly (having a reluctance to stick the stick as far as needed).

Hence why the advice was to isolate if you had symptoms/get the proper PCR test done.

I live in a village with a majority elderly population.
It was interesting to see the split.  almost 50/50. from those who decided that at their age, they were not willing to spend the last few yrs of life indoors alone,  to those of similar ages who did in fact spend the last few yrs indoors and alone.

i have to admit, there are one of those two groups i admire.
The village still has a thriving over 80's walking group.  and i think those fit old folk are gaining life. every day they are out.
 

I had it for the first time ~16th Oct. Had my first flu jab on the Thursday, had tingly sinus on sunday, tested Monday morning - negative, so went to work assuming it was the flu jab. Had to go to bed at 8:30 Tuesday night with fatigue and chills, wednesday tested positive instantly from a nose swab, tried a throat swab - negative, did another nose swab - positive. 36 hours of fever, earache for the first time in my life, and pain swallowing. That then changed to snotty nose and cough (which I still have just about). I'm double jabbed and boosted.  Interestingly, it went through my office like a dose of salts, catching 8 out of 12 of us.  Those that were in the 'never had it before' gang had similar symptoms to me, those that had it last year or before had it milder, and those that had it earlier this year were asymptomatic or didn't get it.  Everyone's jabbed and boosted AFAIK.  No-one in my family had knowingly had it before either, my unvaccinated 5yr old son has the same symptoms as me, my Dad (quad jabbed) didn't get the fever, wife and daughter haven't caught it.

I think this winter could be interesting, although people aren't necessarily going to die there will be a lot having to take a couple of days off work because they can't work due to the fever. More will be off because their corporate policies say to stay at home whilst symptomatic. People who had one of the earlier strains would likely have the same symptoms as me I guess.

I would have thought the proportions of the vaccinated Vs un-vaccinated in the general population versus that in the various categories of excess death would be fairly straightforward to analyze.  I  surprised that this has not been done & publicized. 

Another 1800 excess deaths last week. 

I think that there is much to admire in other group too. Putting aside your own interest for the benefit of others, reducing the opportunities for the virus to thrive, is as much to be admired as living with risk.

Where the balance is I don't know and without the opportunity to wind back time to see which approach results in the greatest good for the greatest number we will never know.

I am not so sure they did it for those reasons,   from those i have spoken to (my immediate neighbours for eg)
they stayed indoors because they were scared witless, not for the benefit of others! 

 

I am sure that was for many, and for some, the only reason to obey the rules but to assume that was the case for all is a bit harsh. In the same way as it would be harsh to dismiss all those who didn't follow the rules, or were creative in their interpretation as being entitled and selfish in a Downing Street way.

My wife and I have never knowingly had it, nor has my 13 year old daughter, despite lots of testing. All my close family and friends have been infected. All jabbed and fully boosted.

We as a family followed the rules at the start.

Same here, Myself and one friend seem to have not had it, everyone else I know has.

You might like to think that! Unfortunately, we really don't know at all accurately what proportion are unvaccinated in the older most vulnerable groups due to the 'denominator problem' (the difference between the general estimates of actual populations in the age bands and the accurate numbers on lists in the vaccination recording system). Here is a fun article on it, showing just how crazy things cen get:

https://fullfact.org/health/phe-ukhsa-bolsonaro/

I'd certainly love to see some more analysis of that.

I shouldn't have read this thread - I've only gone and tested positive for the first time just now! Just a dizzy mild cold and slightly sore lungs. 

I gave you a like as a "get well soon" rather than "I'm scum who is glad you are unwell"!

only anecdotally of course

but the vast majority of those i have asked had the vaccine, either because they where petrified,

or because they wanted to go on holiday somewhere and it was a requirement.

i know very few people who had it for any benefit to society reasons.

it also seems that the number of people getting the boosters. is falling on every occasion

so (made up numbers) lets say 100% got their first jabs
then 90 got their 2nd
75 their 3rd
etc.

again, all only anecdotal.

from observation, (living in a small village) there where certainly a lot of folk out, a lot,  when those  stay indoors. restrictions where in place. 

i suspect more people that will admit it,  took a little less notice of the restrictions than they where asked.

Pretty much everyone I know had it for this exact reason.

Living on the outskirts of London in a busy suburb, I can tell you the restrictions were observed to a very significant degree. It was carnage in March 2020 and Jan 2021. I know people who died, were hospitalised and many others with long Covid, including my own brother. That experience certainly brings home the need to do what you can to keep a lid on things.

I can totally understand in a small village with little exposure that people may have a different outlook, so I'm not judging, just letting you know that in large urban areas the experience may have been very different (and not one I wish to live through again).

Most people I know had it for those reasons as well as any other personal ones. 

It is entirely possible, and reasonable, to be frightened and see a societal reason to obey restrictions and get vaccinated.

Living in a small city, I would say there were very very few people out when restrictions were in place, and as an 'essential worker' I did on occasion have to travel within the city. It was virtually deserted.

I suspect that number will be rather less than you think.

(Possibly a rural/urban difference?)

There was never a “stay indoors” rule, so seeing people outside doesn’t necessarily mean they weren’t observing the restrictions.

There were rules about remaining at your place of residence, which often has outdoor space, and numerous exemptions for exercise etc.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-63256505

I read about the blood group thing and it was looking at actual hospitalisations and the risk profile for your blood group was about 10% less than A Rh+.  Obviously outside of hospital there won’t be data about blood group and incidence of Covid unless your LFT involves pricking your finger and dripping blood on the strip 😏

I’ve never knowingly had covid and I’ve had 4 vaccinations, however 3 nights ago I woke up feeling as if I was drowning in phlegm with every sore throat and chest, following day had sore lungs. Thought initially it might have been extremely bad acid reflux but then started to cough a lot with some green phlegm. Negative covid tests… however I don’t normally get colds .. can’t remember having one since I was at school 50 years ago and if this is a cold it’s bad. I’m pretty fit with very good lung capacity but I was struggling a bit for 24 hours. So if it’s not covid then there’s a bad cold bug about, and if it is covid the home tests are not showing it. (Still got some from when they were issued free on request).

I was free of Covid as far as I’m aware, until this week. 
 

It has progressed as follows

1. Wife has cold symptoms on Sunday

2. I wake up with sore throat on Wed

3. Wed evening my nose is bunged up and I’ve developed slight chill / temp 

4. Sleep badly Wed night , not long after I wake up the bunged nose turns into almost continuously running.  Have a doze on Thu afternoon most likely due to poor overnight sleep.  That sorts out a bit of fatigue, otherwise no fatigue.

5. By Thu evening my slight chill / temp has cleared

6. Friday the nose is mostly bunged again with occasional need to blow. No fatigue.

7. Friday evening take LFT out of curiosity (didn’t have access to tests before then as away from home). It turns strongly positive in the time from taking the test to having a pee. Surprised as was expecting negative , tell wife you’ll never guess, and she tests. Again another strong positive.

8. Saturday symptoms easing / nose not so blocked, throat still sore but improving

7. Sunday (today), nose mostly clear, sore throat improving

8. Took another test this afternoon, 44 hours after strong positive test.  The line takes a few minutes to appear and is faint. My wife test still has strong positive line.

I had my Bivalent booster plus flu jab just over 3 weeks ago, in the over 55s group.

To add, myself and my wife rarely catch each others colds and I’ve never had flu. Which we picked up on as unusual.

If I hadn’t tested we’d have just assumed it was colds as that’s what the symptoms have been with no differences compared to how I have usually seen a cold progress.

The home tests did have a fairly high chance of false positives being fairly insensitive so only reacting to high levels and also prone to people not using them properly.

Looking at the southern hemisphere their flu season was more severe this year and also some other respiratory illnesses are worse as well.

Plus since the anti covid measures meant lower chance of getting colds for the last couple of years your body may have lost some of its ability to respond to them and so the cold is more severe until the immune system catches up.

Being pedantic, I presume you mean false negatives?

Yeah, sorry. Brain fart. They were good the other way.

Interesting article from James Gallagher today:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-63256505

TLDR: he reckons he hasn't had it, and there's some backup evidence, with caveats.

That was out yesterday and linked above by Girlmonkey at 5:20am on Sunday.